Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling Volume II, Technical Papers (1991) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
Pages 314-318
The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.
From page 314... ...
Before considering external validations of Census Bureau and SSA national projections, it is worthwhile to review some of the broader literature comparing cohort component projections (which are used by both agencies) with alternative methodologies.
|
From page 315... ...
claims that there is a common perception among both producers and users of population projections that forecast accuracy must improve as models become more sophisticated and complicated. There is as yet no evidence to indicate that this perception is true.
|
From page 316... ...
Certain relationships are well documented (e.g., the inverse association between education and fertility) , and one might expect that the demographic inputs to population projection models could be better specified if trends in other factors, such as education, income levels, marriage rates, push-and-pull forces, were accounted for.
|
From page 317... ...
Stoto presents a table of fir values based on median projections made by the Census Bureau beginning in 1945. We have supplemented his numbers with calculations of our own and corrected others on the basis of revised estimates of the 1970 and 1975 populations.
|
From page 318... ...
(The issue of changes in the variability of population projections is discussed in the next section.) Considerably less work has focused on validating SSA's projections.
|
Key Terms
This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More
information on Chapter Skim is available.