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Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling Volume II, Technical Papers (1991) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 46-49

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From page 46...
... This section adopts a more global perspective, reviewing estimates from these two surveys of characteristics of AFDC and food stamp recipients compared with data from administrative records. Although microsimulation models simulate program participation from among a pool of simulated eligible units, and some models ignore reported recipiency of benefits altogether in selecting participants, the extent to which the input data accurately portray the recipient population has obvious implications for the quality of the simulations.
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From page 47...
... The authors suggest and, in some cases, are able to provide supporting evidence for the various factors that may account for the differences they find. For example, the Census Bureau's imputation procedures very likely account for over one-fourth of the seemingly ineligible participant cases.
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From page 48...
... In turn, this pattern has made it difficult for the microsimulation models to calibrate the simulated participant population to match administrative controls. For example, the TRIM2 1983 baseline simulation, after the calibration process had been completed, estimated }7This large difference between the CPS and IQCS (observed also for 1987)
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From page 49...
... reported better results for SIPP with a revised definition of household type for simulated food stamp units. However, the revised definition represented an arbitrary choice, and it is not clear whether the problem of too few cases of certain kinds of eligible units stems from population undercoverage, poor definition of the recipient unit within the household, or other factors.~9 The models calibrate their baseline simulations of program participants in order to provide credibility and create what is assumed to be an improved database for simulations of alternative programs.
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Key Terms

  • census bureau
  • march cps
  • sipp data
  • support programs
  • food stamp

  • income support
  • microsimulation models
  • afdc unit
  • eligible units
  • imputation procedures

  • simulation models
  • urban institute
  • participation rates
  • household composition
  • microsimulation model

  • input data
  • administrative records
  • administrative data
  • actual participants
  • child care

  • afdc participation
  • simulated eligible
  • units simulated
  • program participation
  • average monthly

  • simulation model
  • stamp units
  • population undercoverage


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