Predicting Earthquakes A Scientific and Technical Evaluation, With Implications for Society (1976) / Chapter Skim
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Outlook for the Future
Outlook for the Future
Pages 31-34
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From page 31... ...
We will probably predict an earthquake of at least magnitude 5 in California within the next five years in a scientifically sound way and with a sufficiently small space and time uncertainty to allow public acceptance and effective response. A program for routine announcement of reliable predictions may be l0 or more years away, although there will be, of course, many announcements of predictions (as, indeed, there already have been)
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From page 32... ...
Recent intensive efforts to identify velocity changes prior to moderate-size earthquakes have resulted in many disappointments as well as encouragements, and we doubt that any single phenomenon will alone constitute a basis for a successful monitoring program for earthquake prediction. Our best prospect for reducing false alarms to a minimum is through a system that would monitor a wide variety of physical parameters rather than rely on a single kind of observation such as velocity changes.
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From page 33... ...
In addition to long-term data that will be obtained from future instruments, a significant history of seismological and earth-deformation data is recorded in existing bulletins and instrumental records. Although much of this older information is of insufficient precision or relevance to be of use in studying possible long-term precursors to major earthquakes, careful analysis of these existing records is important.
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From page 34... ...
If this l0-year research program is successful, subsequent implementation of the resulting earthquake-prediction capability for all seismic areas of the United States, on a continuing basis, will probably require a comparable national annual commitment. Research in predicting earthquakes has progressed to the point where it is advisable that a continuing overview of the program be presented to the Executive Branch of the United States Government at regular intervals, since its ramifications will affect large segments of our society.
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