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Predicting Earthquakes A Scientific and Technical Evaluation, With Implications for Society (1976) / Chapter Skim
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What Constitutes an Earthquake Prediction?
Pages 7-8

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From page 7...
... Even in the absence of evidence adequate to permit a low-confidence prediction, unexplained geophysical anomalies in a given area may still be of sufficient concern to cause it to be designated an "area of intensive study." This designation has been used in Japan to avoid undue public alarm in situations where no realistic prediction is possible in spite of recognized anomalies that are possible precursors to earthquakes and that clearly warrant accelerated investigation. Any capability for reliable prediction, no matter how long the time scale, is more useful than none at all.
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From page 8...
... For example, many structures in metropolitan areas of high population density and high seismicity will surely fail in a great earthquake, but because of the lack of precision in our estimates of the time of their occurrence it is unlikely that much will be done to avoid such disasters. A reliable prediction that a great earthquake will occur at a given place and time would alert utility companies to possible difficulties and induce community leaders to take actions that would minimize loss of life and property damage.
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Key Terms

  • social responses
  • precise time
  • property damage
  • realistic prediction
  • permanent social

  • emergency forces
  • special structures
  • highly seismic
  • principal basis
  • geophysical anomalies

  • induce community
  • building codes
  • emergency strengthening
  • time estimate
  • realistic building

  • recognized anomalies
  • significant value
  • reliable prediction
  • possibly emergency
  • public alarm

  • minimize loss
  • encouraging permanent
  • avoid undue
  • disaster preparation
  • undue public

  • evidence adequate
  • zoning maps
  • alert utility
  • utility companies
  • community leaders


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