Predicting Earthquakes A Scientific and Technical Evaluation, With Implications for Society (1976) / Chapter Skim
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3. The physical nature of precursory phenomena is complex, and current models to explain them are crude; improvement of these models will require considerable effort in the field and laboratory, as well as in theoretical studies.
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With appropriate commitment, the routine announcement of reliable predictions may be possible within l0 years in well instrumented areas, although large earthquakes may present a particularly difficult problem. The apparent public impression that routine prediction of earthquakes is imminent is not warranted by the present level of scientific understanding.
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