NASA'S Role in Aeronautics A Workshop (1981) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
THE OUTLOOK FOR PETROLEUM
THE OUTLOOK FOR PETROLEUM
Pages 25-42
The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.
From page 25... ...
This changes every year, so any one set of such curves should not be taken too seriously. However, a very informed group of people feel that, despite reduced consumption of petroleum due to the price situation in the world, the future discovery rate is not going to be able to keep up.
|
From page 26... ...
There has been a rather sudden recognition that synthetic fuels offer a major opportunity. A year or two ago it was not like that, although there were groups in the oil companies that were pushing synthetic fuels.
|
From page 27... ...
The reason for this sudden switch on the part of the energy companies and also nonenergy companies is that, at present world prices, it appears that some of the approaches would be good investments, assuming the current price structure projections. An Exxon proposal is shown in Figure 5 that indicates a production goal for synthetic fuels going up to as much as l5 million barrels a day by 20l0.
|
From page 28... ...
In the industrial sector, the liquid fuel demand will be going down, even though the projections this is based on showed continued industrial growth in this country. Liquid fuel use has in fact been growing in industry as imported fuels were used to displace gas; however, that trend will be reversed as gas supplies improve.
|
From page 29... ...
Poor-quality fuels can be upgraded by hydrogenation; however, with increased cost and increased manufacturing energy consumption, special facilities would have to be justified and constructed and some flexibility in dealing with sudden changes in crude supply and composition would be lost. There are going to be supply disruptions and when that happens the product quality will tend to go down because it is very difficult to make high-quality, special products while maintaining supplies of the 29
|
From page 30... ...
The distillate fuels derived from cracked stocks after treatment to improve stability and so on have an aromatics content in the 30 to 40 percent range. There will be continued pressure to use these cracked stocks.
|
From page 31... ...
Even -nilily hydrogenated cracked stocks tend to go over the edge on jet fuel stability. In fact, about the only products that meet jet fuel stability requirements are the straight-run distillates that have been very carefully treated.
|
From page 32... ...
The characteristics of this experimental fuel are shown in Figure l6. The aromatics content has been increased to match more closely the components that would be available from cracked stocks and synthetic fuels.
|
From page 33... ...
CL O 10 1930 2000 FIGURE 1 World oil discovery and production rates from l930 to 2000, excluding the People's Republic of China, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe CExxon, l980) 1960 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 YEAR FIGURE 2 Oil supply demand l975 to 2030 for the world, excluding centrally planned economics 33
|
From page 34... ...
- Major Energy Companies are Proposing Major Developments - Former Non-Energy Companies Developing Plans Stimulated by the U.S. Synthetic Fuels Corporation - Federal Goal is 2MB/D (Oil Equivalent)
|
From page 35... ...
ONE PROPOSAL FOR A MAJOR SYNTHETIC FUELS INDUSTRY Production Goal: l5 MB/D by 20l0 Investment for Mining and Production: 800 x l0 (l980 Dollars) Employment: 870,000 People FIGURE 5 PROPOSED SOURCES OF SYNTHETIC FUELS From Shale MB/D Surface Mines 6.0 Underground Mines 2.0 From Coal Powder River Basin 3.0 Other Western l.l Eastern 2.7 Gulf 0.2 Total ,l5.0 FIGURE 6 35
|
From page 36... ...
Europe Petroleum, Coal, Peat, Biomass Japan Primary Reliance on Imports FIGURE 8 36
|
From page 37... ...
PREDICTED TRENDS Increasing Frequency of Shortages Recurring Tight Supply of Specialty Fuels Shifting Product Mix Shifting and Varied Raw Material Mix FIGURE 9 DYNAMICS OF LIQUID FUEL USE United States Consuming Sector Industrial Non Energy Plus Commercial/Residential Transportation Auto plus L Truck Other Transportation Total DEMAND MB/D l980 2000 2.8 2.2 Major Trends Current Growth Reversed Decrease Due to Gas and 5.l 4.2 Electricity Substitution 7.l 4.5 Will Become an Increasing Fraction of the Total 2.8 5.5 l7.8 l6.4 Continued Decrease Electric Power l.4 0.3 FIGURE l0 Elimination of Heavy Fuel Oil Use 37
|
From page 38... ...
l0-l8 27 (80) 22-30 Takes Advantage of Future Reduced Gasoline Consumption Minimum Interference with Diesel Fuel Production Makes Possible Addition of Higher Boiling Components FIGURE l2 38
|
From page 39... ...
FREEZING POINT Increasing Freezing Point Greatly Increases Refinery Stocks Suitable for Jet Fuel Freezing Point % Increase in Fuel C Suitable Components Jet A-l -50 Base Jet A -40 45 -35 70 The Same Higher Boiling Fractions are Useful for Diesel and Heating Oil The Higher Boiling Fractions Tend to Increase Liner Heating and Smoke FIGURE 13 HYDROGEN CONTENT (AROMATICS) Increased Distillate Demand and Low Hydrogen Content Refinery Fuel Will Result in Increased Use of Cracked Stocks in Distillate Products % Aromatics Jet A 20 Revised Jet A 22/25 Distillate Fuels from Cracked Stocks 30-40 - Hydrogenation will Reduce Aromatics But is Expensive, Wasteful of Energy and Requires Special Equipment - Other Major Distillate Fuels Will Contain 30-40% Aromatics - Properly Designed Combustion Systems Can Satisfactorily Burn High Aromatic Fuels.
|
From page 40... ...
l4 ^* l3 Aromatics Vol Percent ^25 ~» 35 Flash Point °C > 40 > 40 Freezing Point °C -40 -29 Break Point Temp °C >260 > 240 FIGURE l6 40
|
From page 41... ...
GENERAL CONCLUSIONS Refining Technology is Capable of Producing High Quality Jet Fuels from Future Fuel Stocks This Will Require Increased Use of Specialized Equipment as Feed Stock Quality Decreases and Competition for Distillate Fuel Increases The Difficulty of Meeting Specifications Will Vary Greatly with Location Especially in Times of Crisis Fuel Shortages Aircraft Capable of Accepting a Substantially Wider Range of Fuel Properties Appear to Fit the Future Better than Aircraft with Restrictive Fuel Requirements A Substantial Program is Needed to Acquire the Information Needed for Future Aircraft/Fuel Optimization.
|
Key Terms
This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More
information on Chapter Skim is available.