Computing Professionals Changing Needs for the 1990s (1993) / Chapter Skim
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Demand Crosscurrents: Emerging and Disappearing Jobs
Demand Crosscurrents: Emerging and Disappearing Jobs
Pages 29-57
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From page 29... ...
INTRODUCTION What employment opportunities exist for computing professionals? The demand for computing professionals varies by specific occupation, as discussed below, but there are general principles that apply to demand for any and all computing professionals, and it is possible to make some general observations about demand for the group as a whole, much as it is possible to discuss demand for health professionals or other multifaceted groups.
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From page 30... ...
employees, including computing professionals, and by many major users of computing and communications systems to trim their information systems organizations at the same time, are important indicators of demand, but they represent only parts of the picture. Demand has qualitative as well as quantitative dimensions.
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From page 31... ...
In particular, computing professionals are not bound to specific industries (unlike, say, miners or aerospace engineers) .3 Produc~ng, enhancing, advancing, and using computing and communications technologies and applications all create demand for computing professionals across an ever-broadening range of organizations.
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From page 32... ...
Table 3.2 gives BLS estimates of civilian employment in 1990 and forecasts of employment in 2005 for nine major occupational groups. Professional specialty occupations, in the BLS taxonomy, included a total of fewer than 16 million individuals in 1990, among them systems analysts and computer scientists, mathematicians, electrical and electronics engineers, physicists and astronomers, college and university faculty, and numerous other professionals.
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From page 33... ...
Also, on the user side, the overhaul of corporate and public computing infrastructure has fed product demand. Longer-Run Factors A number of factors led workshop participants to expect slower growth in demand for computing professionals even after the economy has recovered.
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From page 34... ...
Chemists Physicists and astronomers College and university faculty Engineering and science technicians and technologists Electrical and electronics Science and mathematics Computer programmersb Administrative support occupations, including clerical (including 665,000 computer and communication operators) Service occupations Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and related occupations Precision production, craft, and repair (including 530,000 electrical and electronic equipment mechanics)
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From page 35... ...
DEMAND CROSSCURRENTS Number Employed (Percent of Total) Change, 1990 to 2005 1990 2005 Number Percentage 12,451 (10.2)
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From page 36... ...
On the one hand, growth in exports or cross-national ventures, including the opening of new markets (e.g., Eastern Europe) , may create new opportunities for computing professionals.
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From page 37... ...
Nichols contrasted the high levels of demand for computing professionals among developed nations (the United States, Canada, Japan, and Western European nations) with the oversupply of such professionals in cerra~n Developing nations, notably India and China: "The estimates I have seen are that there are about 100,000 computer scientists in India, and about 200,000 in China.
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From page 38... ...
New businesses demanding computing professionals may arise both within the computer sector and elsewhere in the economy. CHANGES IN COMPUTER-BASED TECHNOLOGY AND APPLICATIONS AFFECTING DEMAND Changes in the nature and application of computer-based technologies are having a profound effect on the level and mix of demand for computing professionals.
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From page 39... ...
. and publication." Paul Maritz, vice president for Advanced Operating Systems at Microsoft, explained that the proliferation of applications goes hand in hand with an evolution in software from products best suited to specialized users to products aimed at laypeople (Box 3.3~.
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From page 40... ...
the need within that environment for various skills. The emergence of new companies and industries which will employ computing professionals, among others is a familiar phenomenon.
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From page 41... ...
41 Over the past 4 decades, new technology has brought a proliferation of computing professional and nonprofessional jobs and occupations. It has included in particular a broadening of professional opportunities which were focused initially on the creation of computing technology into applications development and support activities.
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From page 42... ...
Participants from industry appeared to place a greater emphasis on the "professional" in computing professional than on the "computing" component. Noted Tora Bikson, senior scientist at the Rand Corporation, when major corporations hire, "tT]
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From page 43... ...
The emphasis on practical skills results in a preference on the part of such companies as Microsoft for recruiting from academic programs that feature work opportunities ("sandwich," "co-op," or work-study programs) .~° While the above comments seemed to apply more to entry-level hiring, similar observations were made with respect to hiring experienced personnel, among whom, workshop participants noted, employers look in particular for evidence of accomplishment.
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From page 44... ...
Robert Kraut postulated that this capability to effectively utilize numerate people from a range of backgrounds in software development extends up to the master's level of skill. Academic computer scientists pointed out that a focus on generic skills may come at a price, since individuals with advanced training in computer science offer a more sophisticated approach to solving technical problems.
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From page 45... ...
TRENDS IN DEMAND BY FUNCTION In addition to examining how the macro environment, technological change, and the preferences of employers can influence demand for computing professionals, workshop participants also discussed demand for computing professionals in particular functions. As pointed out below, career paths and trends in hiring differ for individuals involved in research, in applications and systems development, and in applications and systems deployment (i.e., supporting and facilitating the effective use of systems)
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From page 46... ...
However, comments made by workshop participants suggest that the people engaged in computer science and engineering research have more heterogeneous backgrounds than researchers in other fields. Academic Research Most basic research in computer science and engineering is undertaken in institutions that offer computer science and engineering Ph.D.
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From page 47... ...
A similar situation exists in physics and mathematics, which face added pressure from the new availability of talented individuals from the former Soviet Union.~3 Another effect of weak demand in the academic labor market is the likely inhibition of the movement of senior computer scientists from industry to academic positions, due to crowding out by younger and less highly paid Ph.D. holders.
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From page 48... ...
According to Zelkowitz, "As academic positions dry up or good ones become harder to find, individuals will make hard choices- a $45,000 assistant professor position at a small 4-year college versus a $25,000 postdoc position at Massachusetts Institute of Technology or Carnegie Mellon University with the chance of a good position there or elsewhere in 2 or 3 years. Different individuals will make different career decisions." The literature on postdoctoral appointments suggests that they, too, are driven in part by labor market conditions.
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From page 49... ...
Data show "an enormous number of Ph.D.s in science in the United States who say they are working in different areas in different years" when they are surveyed. For example, the Survey of Doctorate Recipients from United States Universities shows that 77 percent of people working as computing professionals (people working in computer science or computer engineering)
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From page 50... ...
Based on their own and their students' experiences, academic researchers in computer science and engineering have expressed concern that industrial research is contracting and that additional small endeavors cannot compensate for contraction in the larger laboratories. Applications and Systems Development The development of computing applications and systems dominates the employment of computing professionals in industry, government, and other organizations.
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From page 51... ...
'' ill tier t - AWNS ~ ; 4~ floes resents-. ~u1 id,, aritz ;~ ~1 Despite its apparent importance, the work of software engineers and what it implies for demand are poorly understood, according to lane Siegel: "There are very few places where one can get any consensus about what the specific education, background, and/or job performance skills are for someone whom you would call a software engineer.
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From page 52... ...
" Applications and systems development is driven by the needs and wants of users, and both users and producers of computer systems employ development specialists. This point was made by Chris Caren, vice president of science and technology at Lockheed, who described the fruitful interaction of a small number of trained computing professionals with a larger number of people from other fields who needed computing tools (Box 3.7~.
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From page 53... ...
This category of computing professional is perhaps the least well understood; it is at least as diverse as the applications and systems development category, and it potentially spans a mix of jobs that may be performed by professionals and/or technicians. In this category, too, skill requirements appear to be increasing.
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From page 54... ...
to keep a system running at some The need for people skilled in deployment of computer-based systems is expected to grow with the dispersion of intelligent systems and applications across organizations and out of conventional information systems units. As Elizabeth Nichols explained, the dispersion phenomenon may have been launched by people who were technically literate (including scientists and engineers)
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From page 55... ...
Absent other changes, the research component of the job market may decline. Because occupations and functions are not necessarily identical, it is possible that new job opportunities may arise outside of research that can tap the higher skill levels of computer science and engineering Ph.D.s, thus conveying broad economic benefits.
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From page 56... ...
For an interesting analysis of the employment implications of the recent dramatic events in Eastern Europe, see Andrew Pollock's "Technology Without Borders Raises Big Questions for U.S.," New York Times, January 1, 1992.
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From page 57... ...
16. According to unpublished tabulations from the Survey of Doctorate Recipients, Office of Scientific Engineering Personnel, the number of Ph.D.s who go on to hold postdoctoral appointments has been increasing in all fields, however.
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