Technical Bases for Yucca Mountain Standards (1995) / Chapter Skim
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CHAPTER 4 - HUMAN INTRUSION AND INSTITUTIONAL CONTROLS
CHAPTER 4 - HUMAN INTRUSION AND INSTITUTIONAL CONTROLS
Pages 105-116
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From page 105... ...
to examine the scientific basis for predicting human intrusion and the potential for protecting against it, specifically: Question 2. Whether it is reasonable to assume that a system for post-closure oversight of the repository can be cieveloped, based on active institutional controls, that will prevent an unreasonable risk of breaching the repository's engineered barriers or increasing the exposure of individual members of the public to radiation beyonc!
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From page 106... ...
As long as they are in place, active institutional controls such as guards could prevent intruders from coming near the repository. We conclude, however, that there is no scientific basis for making projections over the long term of either the social, institutional, or technological status of future societies.
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From page 107... ...
waste repository far exceeds experience, so there is no technical basis for making forecasts about the reliability of such passive institutional controls. Just as there is no basis for assuming the effectiveness of either active or passive institutional controls to reduce the risk of human intrusion, we also conclude that there is no scientific basis for estimating the probability of intrusion at far-future times.
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From page 108... ...
First, although there is no scientific basis for judging whether active institutional controls can prevent an unreasonable risk from human intrusion, we think that if the repository is built such controls ant] other activities can be helpful in reducing the risk of intrusion' at least for some initial period of time after a repository is closed.
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From page 109... ...
on analyses of intrusion consequences is useful in assessing repository performance at Yucca Mountain, such analyses are likely to be more meaningful in selecting among alternative sites (such as by avoiding sites that have potentially valuable mineral, energy, or ground-water resources) than in assessing the performance of a particular site and design.
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From page 110... ...
Factors that cannot be technically assessed include the likelihood that institutional controls will persist and succeed over time, or that markers or barriers would persist, be understood, and deter intrusion; the probability that a future intrusion would occur in a given future time period such as in any one year; and the probability that a future intrusion would be detectecI and remediated, either when it occurs or later. In addition, we cannot predict which resources will be discovered or will become valuable enough to be the objective of an intruder's activity.
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From page 111... ...
We considered at some length the question of whether the calculation of consequences for one or more specified human intrusion scenarios, absent their associated probabilities, could form a useful basis for evaluating a proposed repository site and design. We conclude that the calculations of consequences would provide useful information about how well a repository might perform after an intrusion occurs.
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From page 112... ...
YUCCA MOUNTAIN STANDARDS . Insight into repository performance with the An example of a scenario that we believe provides a reasonable basis for evaluation would postulate current drilling technology but assume sloppy practice, such as not plugging the hole carefully when abandoning it, after which natural processes would gradually modify the hole.
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From page 113... ...
thereby protect the public health is the most appropriate scenario to use for this purpose. ADDITIONAL BASES FOR OUR RECOMMENDATION In this section we discuss two additional aspects of the human intrusion question that underlie our thinking: the various categories of future human intrusion scenarios and the categories of hazards that could result from a typical borehole intrusion.
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From page 114... ...
Given the potential energy value of the wastes intended for Yucca Mountain, however, this category of intrusion scenarios might be likely. Categories of Hazards Resulting From an Intrusion We have identifier]
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From page 115... ...
by the intrusion. In the first and second instances, we concluded that analyzing the risks to the intrusion crew and the risks from any material brought directly to the surface as a consequence of intrusion is unlikely to provide useful information about a specific repository site or design and therefore should not provicle a basis for judging the resilience of the proposed repository to intrusion.
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