Learning to Predict Climate Variations Associated with El Nino and the Southern Oscillation Accomplishments and Legacies of the TOGA Program (1996) / Chapter Skim
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6. APPLICATIONS OF ENSO PREDICTION
6. APPLICATIONS OF ENSO PREDICTION
Pages 123-131
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From page 123... ...
Physical and social scientists opened a dialogue during TOGA on how to develop and apply forecasts of short-term climate variations. Several of the tropical nations directly affected by ENSO variations have begun applying the fledgling ENSO predictions.
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From page 124... ...
, the Bush administration committed the United States to implementing "a pilot project to demonstrate the operating concepts embodied in the plan and invited government officials and scientists from all interested nations to join in developing an International Research Institute for Climate Prediction" (OMB 1992~. DEVELOPMENT OF APPL/CAT/ONS AND ASSESSMENTS ENSO forecasts are societally relevant because the agrarian sectors in tropical countries depend critically on the water received during the rainy season.
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From page 125... ...
These assessments included studies of agricultural production, coastal fisheries, emergency preparedness, systems for early warning of drought and famine, strategies for hydroelectric power generation, insurance concerns, and mitigation of forest fires. A series of workshops proved very successful in bringing these seemingly disparate communities together to work on topics of mutual concern.
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From page 126... ...
It became apparent that scientists in developing nations were on the verge of being able to advise their governments on the value of short-term climate predictions. Numerous examples and case studies made it clear that a well developed strategy would be needed to produce accurate and socioeconomically relevant climate information.
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From page 127... ...
The trainees learned about current capabilities in climate modeling, and helped to develop practical applications for their home country that link model forecasts with regional impacts. APPL/CATJONS OF REGIONAL ENS O FORECASTS At the end of TOGA, ENSO forecasts and their applications were performed by small research groups in developed countries on an ad hoc basis.
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From page 128... ...
Short-term climate predictions from abroad and local monitoring information in meteorology, hydrology, and agriculture are used to guide state decisions on agricultural and water conservation. As in Peru, climate-forecast information has helped to alleviate the drastic consequences of ENSO in Brazil (Moura 1994~.
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From page 129... ...
The primary reason for the dramatic improvement was that in late 1991, FUNCEME acted on a combination of ENSO forecasts and information on conditions in the Atlantic, and alerted the government to an impending dry growing season. Then-Governor of Ceara, Ciro Comes, traveled to the interior of the state with the Secretary of Agriculture and the President of FUNCEME to initiate a series of actions that culminated in the farmers planting crops appropriate for a shorter growing season.
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From page 130... ...
The National Meteorological Service of Ethiopia has been issuing experimental seasonal forecasts based on ENSO predictions since 1987 (Bekele 1994~. Advisories are released for the spring and fall growing seasons.
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From page 131... ...
Her preliminary work indicated that yields of five major crops in about thirty countries appear to be correlated with ENSO variations. For most of the crops, yields tended to be lower in years with anomalously warm equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature.
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