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Learning to Predict Climate Variations Associated with El Nino and the Southern Oscillation Accomplishments and Legacies of the TOGA Program (1996) / Chapter Skim
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7. THE FUTURE
Pages 132-140

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From page 132...
... · developed methods of ENSO prediction and demonstrated predictive skill through the establishment and maintenance of the TOGA Program on Prediction (T-POP) and the establishment of the coupledmodeling project at the National Meteorological Center; · developed effective management and advisory structures to maintain and support the TOGA effort, both nationally and internationally; and planned for an International Research Institute for Climate Prediction.
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From page 133...
... Furthermore, the annual cycle itself has components that result from strong coupling among ocean, atmosphere, and land processes. The skill of predictions of sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific has proven to be strongly dependent on which seasons lie between the time at which and the time for which a prediction is made.
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From page 134...
... We have come to understand that the warm phase of ENSO can be identified with the eastward extension into the central Pacific of a significant portion of the precipitation normally found in the far western Pacific (the "maritimecontinent heat sources. The global circulations arising from the thermal forcing from this gigantic heat source influence other tropical heat sources, in particular the South Pacific Convergence Zone, the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zones, and the heat source over South America.
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From page 135...
... The key processes that are essential in the coupling of the ocean and atmosphere on seasonal-to-interannual time scales need to be better identified and parameterized in models. The COARE field program was designed to address some of these processes, but was conducted so late in the TOGA Program that it had little influence on prediction and modeling during TOGA.
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From page 136...
... The social and political environment evolves on time scales shorter than many climate variations. The geographic coverage of the present in situ climate observation network continues to decline at a time when new initiatives are needed ARC 1 994a)
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From page 137...
... operational forecast units or what effects its oceanographic observations have on the regular and systematic production of forecasts of sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific. Furthermore, recent analyses of the decadal variability of tropical sea surface temperature indicate that the observing system may have been designed with too narrow a spatial extent, and may neglect regions important for the understanding of ENSO and its connections to other parts of the globe.
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From page 138...
... are: 1. to continually develop dynamically and thermodynamically consistent coupled models of the global atmosphere, ocean, and land, to serve as a basis for improved climate prediction; to systematically explore the predictability of climate anomalies on time scales out to a few years; to receive, analyze, and archive global atmospheric and oceanic data to improve the scope and accuracy of the forecasts; 4.
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From page 139...
... The SCPP provides mechanisms for the next steps in developing experimental forecasts, in research, in observations, in data management, and in applications of climate information on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. Laying the foundations for a program that will systematically produce and disseminate climate forecasts for applications in societal and economic planning is central to the SCPP.
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From page 140...
... , is designed to address these problems. We re-emphasize the words in NRC 1 994b: The ultimate scientific objectives of the GOALS Program would be to: understand global climate variability on seasonal-to-interannual time scales; determine the spatial and temporal extent to which this variability is predictable; · develop the observational, theoretical, and computational means to predict this variability; and make enhanced climate predictions on seasonal-to-interannual time scales.
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Key Terms

  • sea surface
  • surface temperature
  • interannual variability
  • climate variations
  • tropical pacific

  • annual cycle
  • toga program
  • climate forecasts
  • climate variability
  • heat source

  • south american
  • convergence zone
  • land processes
  • heat sources
  • skillful forecasts

  • source influence
  • goals program
  • interannual variations
  • middle latitudes
  • tropical sea

  • supporting research
  • climate research
  • systematically produce
  • tropical heat
  • decadal variability

  • develop applications
  • midlatitude connections
  • global interannual
  • subsurface currents
  • climate understanding


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