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3 THE IMPACT OF MILITARY DOWNSIZING
Pages 53-75

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From page 53...
... Such reductions will affect the ability of the civilian air carriers to draw on the military for trained aviation personnel. The major air carriers, faced with a dwindling supply of trained military pilots and mechanics, will have to meet their future hiring needs by relying to a greater extent than they presently do on civilian sources of supply.
From page 54...
... This pattern holds for both the global/major airlines and the national airlines. A comparison of the two figures reveals that the nationals generally hire fewer pilots, but that, even when the two groups are hiring about the same number of pilots, the percentage with military backgrounds is higher for the global/majors than for the nationals.
From page 56...
... . - 1.000 2,000 3,000 Number Pilots Hired 4,000 5,000 FIGURE 3-1 Number of pilots hired by global/major airlines and percentage with military background.
From page 57...
... The FAA's Pilot and Aviation Maintenance Technician Blue Ribbon Panel (Blue Ribbon Panel, 1993:19) found that the military supplied a much lower percentage of technicians than pilots to the air carriersan average of 23 percent of major carriers' new hires, based on results from a 1992 survey.
From page 59...
... For example, the FAA and the Department of Defense have developed a joint strategy aimed at converting military maintenance courses into credit for an airframe and power plant mechanic's license, thereby enabling military aircraft maintenance technicians to qualify for civilian aviation positions upon separation or retirement (Federal Aviation Administration, 1994~. Another way of looking at the effects of the military drawdown on the supply of trained aviation personnel is to look at what is happening to the annual intake into the military "pipeline." Table 3-3 shows the number of military personnel in their first year of service in selected occupational categories from 1980 to 1995.
From page 60...
... Reductions in the numbers of pilots and enlisted maintenance personnel being trained in the military will eventually translate into fewer trained personnel who will be available to the civilian air carriers. Projections of the size of pilot training classes and military separations illustrate this point.
From page 61...
... lions of future pilot losses show military pilot separations from the services decreasing to about 1,700 annually between 1995 and 1999, with a further decline to 1,500 annually by 2002 (Levy, 1995:31~. In other words, the number of military-trained pilots who become civilians and perhaps join the air carrier applicant pool after the turn of the century will be half of what it was as recently as 1992.
From page 62...
... President, 1995:41~. The Air Force, in cooperation with Delaware State College, a historically black college, has recently launched a summer flight training program targeting selected ROTC students from historically black colleges and universities around the country.
From page 63...
... Until recently they were specifically excluded from 2we note that the overall conclusions in this paragraph would have been the same, although the absolute numbers would have been larger, if we had assumed that the ``unknown,, number was negligible and made our calculations including the ``other minority/ethnic status unknown,, group in the minority totals. 3committee members were concerned that minorities might leave the service at disproportionately high rates, but data on individuals separating from the military provided by the Defense Manpower Data center indicate this is not the case.
From page 64...
... . Data for occupational categories correspond to the following occupational codes: tactical operations, 2; fixed-wing pilots, 2A, 2B; helicopter pilots, 2C; aircraft crews, 2D; engineering and maintenance, 4; aircraft mainte full participation in the armed forces, and their military career choices and opportunities have historically been strictly circumscribed.
From page 65...
... . SOURCE: Unpublished data provided by Defense Manpower Data Center, U.S.
From page 68...
... For example, from 1980 to 1994, the proportion of women has increased for each of the following occupational groups: tactical officers from 0.8 percent to 2.5 percent; fixed-wing pilots from 0.3 percent to 1.5 percent; helicopter pilots from 0.2 percent to 2.7 percent; air crews, from 0.1 percent to 1.6 percent; engineering and maintenance officers, from 4.5 percent to 9.7 percent; and aircraft maintenance officers, from 5.0 percent to 9.2 percent. Although the proportion of
From page 69...
... The actual number of former military pilots available to civilian airlines will be smaller, since some pilots entering military training will not complete it and some pilots leaving the military will not wish to become civilian airline pilots. Even without these considerations, and even under optimistic circumstances, it is clear that the military cannot be expected to make a dramatic contribution to increasing the numbers of blacks, women, and other minorities in the cockpits of civilian airlines.
From page 70...
... 70 He a' be a' c)
From page 74...
... a) ~In _ ~_ ~ FIGURE 3-4 Aircraft maintenance enlisted personnel, first year of duty, all services, by sex, race, ethnic status, 1980-1995.
From page 75...
... Furthermore, this would be true even without military downsizing.


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