Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise (1997) / Chapter Skim
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2: LONG-TERM GLOBAL SCENARIOS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR AERONAUTICS
2: LONG-TERM GLOBAL SCENARIOS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR AERONAUTICS
Pages 17-40
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From page 17... ...
The United States also has a strong economy, with liberal trade policies and a ~aissez-faire attitude toward business and commerce. The worldwide demand for aeronautics and space-based products and services is strong and the free market economy is generating rising employment and prosperity throughout the world.
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From page 18... ...
Safety, performance, and customer service also are important. The increase in air travel has generated a growing demand for new aircraft products and services.
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From page 19... ...
Large-vo~ume aircraft, reconfigurab~e aircraft, and supersonic transports also would be required to maximize the efficiency of air travel and meet the growing demands of both consumers and air carriers. Each of these aircraft types would be designed with both low production costs and low operating costs, and short cycle times for design, fabrication, and certification processes would be required for new aircraft prod ucts.
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From page 20... ...
In general, improved situational awareness systems would be required in the aircraft and on the ground. High Security anc/ Recluced Accident Rates Although threats to security are generally low in this scenario, sophisticated sensing equipment and security measures wou~cl be needed to protect a large and growing number of air travelers.
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From page 21... ...
Low-Cost, Reliable Access to Space Competitive market forces would drive the commercial launch vehicle and satellite businesses toward low-cost service with increased reliability. Advanced airaugmented or air-breathing propulsion systems could be used on some launch vehicles if they proved to be cost effective.
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From page 22... ...
The new U.S. standard Global Information Network or "G-net" is now the worldwide standard.4 With a massively increased bandwidth and a greater number of applications, the G-net has become the backbone of global commerce and an acceptable (and cost-competitive)
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From page 23... ...
that is not conducted using private fleets or chartered aircraft would be accomplished by air carriers using a new generation of ~ower-capacity transports that also operate within a more distributed, point-to-point air transportation system. The premium prices paid by those who still must travel would create a demand for premium services, including aircraft interior configurations customized to meet passenger requirements, and supersonic capability for ~ong-range overwater routes.
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From page 24... ...
Air Traffic Management Point-to-point operations that use ~ower-capacity commercial transports, business jets, and GA aircraft wou~cl need to be supported by a sophisticated distributed airspace system with automated decision making for ATM. Technology to provide accurate, user-friendly situation awareness and decision aids directly to the cockpit by way of secure and reliable data links would be needed.
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From page 25... ...
economic competitiveness, a high growth rate of worldwide demand for aeronautics products and services, a high level of threats to security and quality of life, and a high global trend in government participation in society.
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From page 26... ...
However, the dispersion of industrial facilities for both military and economic reasons has increased the requirement for flexible air traffic routing to and from minima-sized, distributed landing fields. Environmental issues have a reduced priority in society and therefore have little impact on aviation.
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From page 27... ...
regional industrial capabilities to produce a wide variety of defense and commercial vehicles at reduced cost but without low-cost labor a skilled domestic labor force, including engineers, scientists, and shop workers trained by an education system that is focused on achieving broad based participation from aid segments of a diverse society a rapid, reliable, and flexible distribution capability for manufactured products an ability to project military force alternative domestic energy sources secure, reliable communications and information systems military and industrial intelligence gathering capability air transportation systems that enable operations in both existing, sophisticated infrastructures and new, but austere infrastructures appropriate defensive military capability prevention of the spread of infectious diseases by global air travel Eight system level aeronautics technologies have been identified that would meet these needs. They are summarized below.
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From page 28... ...
military transport and could be used for the short-hau~, dense domestic market to support dispersed manufacturing facilities with minimal impact on the existing infrastructure. Vertical/short {eke-off and landing technologies would be required for this aircraft, as well as integrated propulsion and airframe approaches to noise reduction; low specific fuel consumption, high thrust-to-weight ratio engines; autonomous ATC; and advanced manufacturing techniques.
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From page 29... ...
UAVs would be chosen for these missions because they offer the best combination of ~ong-term enclurance, long range, low cost, and low observability, while removing the pilot and crew from exposure to hostile environments. The key technology requirements are improved understanding of human-machine interactions; reliable and secure communications ~inks; flexible and modular payload configurations; low fuel consumption engines for high-a~titude operation; and inexpensive, flexible manufacturing techniques.
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From page 30... ...
The key technology requirements include novel air-breathing propulsion devices such as gun-~aunched ramjets, scramjets, and ram accelerators; inexpensive expendable components; and technology to provide aircraft-~ike operations.
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From page 31... ...
, landing provisions (airports, landing pads, etc.) , air traffic management, communications, maintenance and logistics, and flight crews.
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From page 32... ...
Providing desired and valuable leisure time for passengers while enroute wou~cl place less emphasis on aircraft speed and more emphasis on quiet, humidified, spacious aircraft interiors that would allow passenger activity. Entertainment on long flights would require extensive communications capabilities for the aircraft as well.
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From page 33... ...
This could be a material that provides structural support, and also acts as thermal and acoustic insulation for cabin areas, creates a flame barrier for the protection of passengers, and is immune to condensation and subsequent corrosion caused by increased cabin humidity. An aircraft with similar levels of performance advancement in payload size, range, safety, reliability, and environmental friendliness also would be required to meet the cargo transport needs of this scenario's global marketplace.
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From page 34... ...
Aviation and Aeronautics in the "Environmentally Challenged" Scenario The aerospace inclustry, facing a much lower clemand for its proclucts, aggressively seeks new markets. Distinct markets evolve for retrofit technology to reduce the fuel consumption and the emissions of existing commercial aircraft fleets without purchasing entirely new aircraft at greater expense.
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From page 35... ...
ATM improvements to reduce fuel consumption In addition, the high level of tension would create threats to civil aviation that would require improvements to the security of commercial aircraft. The technological implications and R&D needed to satisfy these needs are discussed below.
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From page 36... ...
Improvec! Air Traffic Management to Reduce Fue/ Consumption This scenario, as mentioned previously, inc~ucles high fuel costs and limits on emissions.
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From page 37... ...
Security for Commercia/ Aircraft Technologies to improve the security of commercial aircraft operations would be required in this scenario. Requirements would include the adaptation of low observable and missile countermeasures technology to commercial aircraft without impacting negatively overall aircraft safety, cost, or performance.
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From page 38... ...
Worldwide, high volume of air traffic Distributed airspace system Access to Space Low-cost commercial launch, dedicated Low-cost to low-Earth orbit (LEO) military launch Airport Infrastructure Expanded in third world, existing infrastructure Distributed non-hub system constrained in developed world Safety and Survivability Reduced accident rate for increased air traffic Survivable structures, adaptive controls Manufacturing Short cycle times, low production costs Enhanced modeling and simulation Air Cargo Large-volume, reconfigurableaircraft.
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From page 39... ...
Low cost, nonhuman, launch on demand Minimal-sized, distributed landing fields Reduced pilotworkload, improved collision avoidance; UAVs to reduce human exposure to hosti le environments Virtual, smart, universal "factory" Military and civilian applications Infrastructure independent, short- to medium-range, VSTOL military special operations Extremely long-range, large, reduced sonic boom aircraft Control led observabi I ity and low noise for m i I itary and com mercial al rcraft Infrastructure independent, short- to medium-range, mi litary special operations Skill-targeted aeronautics training and education transportation systems Austere to sophisticated, distributed and tailored Safety designed into systems, significantly improved R&D to production modeling and simulation capability Reconfigurable aircraft, supersonic al rcraft Environmentally optimized aircraft ~ 1 (low emissions and noise) Part of customer-tailored air transportation system Long range for business travel and cargo hauling, low noise and emissions over populated areas Long-range, large payload, and optimized for entertainment To accommodate austere landing conditions Part of tailored air transportation system Multifunction materials Simplified training, accomplished by Internet-like communications network emissions ton~,-Term GIoba/ Scenarios and Their Implications for Aeronautics 39 "Regional Tensions" Autonomous, self-contained ATM on board aircraft "Trading Places" Integrated part of flexible, costeffective, customer-tai lored air "Environmentally Challenged" Optimized to reduce fuel use Low-cost, on-demand launch capability for remote sensing payloads Must accommodate hydrogenpowered aircraft Bomb and blast resistant aircraft materials Energy efficiency is paramount Used for remote sensing applications Reduced or zero emissions aircraft Security technology for aircraft Designed and operated for fuel efficiency and reduced or zero Airframe (lightweight)
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