Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise (1997) / Chapter Skim
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APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM
APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM
Pages 61-116
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APPENDIX D Scenario Narratives as Provided by the NASA/TFG/SAlC Core Team 61
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The World Trade Organization (WTO) and other multilateral organizations keep markets open and succeed in maintaining favorable conditions for cross-border commerce and finance.
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Again, China was an inconsistent performer and investors feared that it could suffer political turmoil and a major economic setback. The Middle East was still politically unstable, leaving global energy markets constantly on edge.
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In fact, the much maligned "reengineering" and "restnacturing" trends of the ~ 990s proved to be the boot camp of the emerging global business environment. By the late part of the decade, productivity gains were appearing in spades, not only because work forces were slashed to the bone, but because companies were finally growing skilled in applying information technology to all phases of the value chain, from design to distribution.
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off protectionism, it also accelerated market liberalization as the major trading nations got firmly on their feet. IT and telecom innovation and expansion accelerated after 2005, as bountiful venture capital fed countless start-up companies offering new products and services for constantly evolving and changing technologies.
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Across the world, the U.S. military presence was significantly downsized and limited primarily to a residual presence in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, which remained subject to low-level instability.
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Even in Europe, two-week vacations have become extremely rare; there is money but a paucity of time. Addling to time poverty, middle- and upper-cIass mature market consumers (which now count Taiwan, Singapore and Korea among their ranks)
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Emerging Market consumers show no loss of appetite for all kinds of consumer goods. And increasingly, especially in Asia, the new middle classes are discovering the wonders of Europe and the Americas.
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GIobal Distribution of Power & Increased number of effective actors; high level of rapid | Technology | technology diffusion fed by globe infonet; still have and have not states and groups; many niche economic powers; l | information security is problem, par icularly in commerce. L Fuels & Fuel Sources I Oil is critical and some Middle East instability; plus I NASA ,40~tic$ The Futures Group
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; tort reform combined with trictly enforced truth in l I labeling laws; anti-trust laws nuch more liberally l I interpreted due to dynamic high tech information rich l I nature of economy; bankruptcy aws strictly enforced; l l tendencies to off-load social respo sibilities to state and local governments; minimal government, privatization of l | services; no deficit/reduced debt, te dency not to subsidize l | industry; minimum body of law an regulation to support a l | dynamic free market economy; affluent charities for | | humanitarian work. I Corporate Structure and | Trend to virtual, global decentr, lized structures, with I Operations | mobile contingent labor; technolo y proliferation is high l | and dynamic; market share is dynarr ic, in general very hard l to capture share for a long tim; 24 hour operations; I significantly reduced offsets (son e still exist in excess I capacity segments or in newly i dustrialized countries)
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I Time Poverty I Very time constrained in dynami global economy, but I Leisure Time, Entertainment I separation of work and play is un tear; a lot of contract labor-work for a while, take a long vacation (implies excellent personal credit management) ; blurring of education and leisure; options for leisure are open ended; middle class tries to mimic this activity, but with fewer re s ourc es; entertain m ent i s hug e in c u stry and h as exp an d e d |\f~S~ Is The Futures Group
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infrastructure; harmonization of standards especially in automation and communications; pay for access - user fees; infrastructure must accommodate low-cost, rapid-time-to market, optimized production flows; potential for electro magnetic/ frequency congestion; supports rapid response to consumer demand (internet orders/overnight delivery) ; dynamic mix of transportation modes (e.g., "transportation credit cards/super transport rental company"; high-end market for significantly reduced portal-to-portal travel time and for continuous connectivity.
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Goods still move great (listances through the global economy, occasionally at risk, but goods are expendable; people move only when absolutely necessary. Each day it becomes more amazing what simulation can do.
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While the mature market economies of North America, Europe, and Japan grew steadily, they pumped capital into the rapidly developing emerging markets of Southeast Asia (SEA) and Latin America.
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The economies of scale possible with global markets kept costs down as did the flexibility to locate manufacturing in locations with low labor costs and investment incentives (like m~n~mailst environmental regulations)
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The rapid growth of consumerism was not to the liking of many highly conservative religious and cultural authorities, and an interconnected global economy robbed many authoritarian government leaders of the total sovereignty they thought was their due. Corruption, as well, was to be found in many of the most turbulent markets.
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Air passenger traffic fell off dramatically for a while, Israel was threatened with invasion, of] was briefly cut off to the West, several Western corporate buildings in the Middle East were destroyed in rioting, and calls for a jihad (but against whom?
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~ It has been popular in recent times to criticize the "free market" approach initially taken in security measures. Most people look upon the more recent and very intensive government attention to safety and security as the model that should have been followed in the very beginning.
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While the government continues to prefer a free market approach, public funding was and is quickly allocated for programs that will provide enhanced security. The mission and budget battles that have erupted over safety missions are fast becoming legendary.
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Nevertheless, we have a vigorous global economy and all are adjusting to the new reallies of global life and commerce. It is simply the case that we hardly ever think about getting on a plane anymore.
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Global Distribution of Power & High tech, wired world - broad band everywhere and Technology infrastructure development widely promoted - IT is the backbone of global economy; few barriers to technology proliferation; source of global power is economic and technology; large corporate security forces common. Fuels & Fuel Sources Oil available at moderate prices' price has gone up some over years; resources available and market driven; some | short term variation in supplies due to related terrorist NASA Aeronautics The Futures Group
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~ Corporate Structure and | Global companies use the internet a substitute for travel, I Operations | enabled by virtuality; limits to geog aphic consolidation, but I l l economic consolidation continues; ~ arket share in products tend to be stable but market share for services on internet is l | dynamic, generally off-sets are redu ed; strong global economy; alliances are important especially for market l ~ growth; ownership is global and dy mic; labor competition high at professional/managerial level but tighter at l | production level, since tied into loo labor pool, with some l | what higher costs; hurdles in cost a d location, but plenty of startup capital available. Environment Environmental issues at the global and national level are over shadowed by terrorism and political instability (but l l might be environmental terrorism)
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is directed towards safety and security; operation patterns focus on safety and security; very high cost of travel becomes driving factor as terrorism is somewhat controlled; if firms own unique te chn o ~ o gy s o {utio n, s om e b arri ers t ~ entry m ay co m e down; ownership pattern is private, vertical integration in many transportation and travel indu tries to control safety and security; there is a tendency toward somewhat synchronized global business cycles. Technology development and The need for security drives government industrial policy to Application augment market driven technologies in safety, security, and information/ telecommunication; need new manufacturing technologies for cost effective small local factories; R&D is widely diffused geographically and across industries, "R" is more focused on safety, security, and communications.
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. Safety and Security Safety and security (including data security)
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companies, in the face of losses in China and hostility elsewhere in the region, have abandoned or downsizecl Asian operations. An expanded European Union (ex-the UK)
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Now "liberal capitalism," "global free trade," and a proliferation of"multilateral treaties and organizations" would ensure peace, progress, and prosperity for the new millennium. Over the last quarter century, America easily had the world's most open, least regulated, and most globally integrated economy.
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north. The "entrepreneurial" coastal provinces won with surprisingly little damage to the industrial economic infrastructure.
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with significantly increased investment in joint development projects was the kernel of cooperation that became the foundation of their defense agreement against China. With India's increased participation in this alliance, they have become the dominant political and military power surrounding China and have successfully co-opted cooperation from some other Southeast Asian countries.
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~, . of major industrialized nations; occurring, it was a~iegecl, because ot cheap air travel to and from emerging market countries.
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International business travel also continues to be soft, as corporations abandon any pretense at global organizational structures in favor of a more regional focus. But travel industry people say there is more going on: "Folks come in asking if the water is safe, if the rooms are clean or are just distrusting the 'people there.' And, of course, they invariably go on to acid "concern about regional air safety and security management in one country or another." In the end they simply go some place local that they can trust.
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; tight controls on regional military-critical technologies; highly politicized air rights agreements; no incentive to continue off sets. Political Instability Four antagonistic regional powers - North America, Europe, Japan/ Russia/India, and China that emerged from prolonged period of economic, political and military conflict; significant instability lingers in Southeast Asia; shared tensions over resources and concerns over sea lane security; China and US narrowly averted military conflict and are still at odds.
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US Policy Relatively high degree of government intervention in economic sphere; particularly strong industrial policy in defense matters; somewhat more liberal tort environment but not central issue; unemployment mitigated by rising defense expenditures; fairly permissive anti-trust regulations, activist government support for troubled US and North American companies; very high barriers to entry/exit ; entry barriers related to high tariffs, non-tariff barriers, and high cost of capital; high government spending, focused on defense sector; government debt and deficit both rising following relatively austere fiscal period; increase in regulations related to regional/international trade and commerce; higher humanitarian assistance which is pragmatic and directed toward Latin America to woo into North American sphere of influence. Corporate Structure and Corporate structure deglobalized and now Operations regionalized; high geographical consolidation with lots of corporate failures; very limited technological proliferation, very strong government controls on military and technology exports, but some seepage nonetheless; offset agreements the exception and determined by type of product and host country relationship to seller; business alliances are limited overall but critical to inter-regional commerce; pronounced trend to regional ownership structures; shortages of skilled labor especially for defense related industries; technical labor costs very high, intensive training required to upgrade skill base; government support for defense related training and education.
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~ nd there may be private nets developing; slow divergence of standards and protocols between regions. Production Cost Performance Economies of scale limited by regional structures, making regional-based manufacturing more expensive; many raw materials and components outsourced out of US in earlier years are difficult and costly to obtain; some cost issues tolerated due to high defense need; barriers to entry/exit are moderate to high; governments are biggest buyers of Appendix D NASA Aeronautics The Futures Group
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; government R&D is everywhere - it is both R and D Time Poverty | Some time poverty for people working two jobs in Leisure Time, Entertainment lethargic economies (different from region-to region)
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Technological innovation, too, is increasingly centered in the Pacific Rim, as companies gear their research and product development to satisfy the wants and desires of the middle classes of China, India, Korea, Southeast Asia and to a lesser extent Latin America.
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saw great promise in the then-underdeveloped but rapidly growing economies of China, India, Indonesia, and the other export-oriented economies of Southeast Asia as well as those of Latin America. What the mature economies failed to realize at the time was the extent to which their own economic problems and declining competitiveness, in the context of free and open global markets, would accelerate the progress and development of the Emerging Markets and significantly narrow the gaps between the "haves" of the mature markets and the "not yet haves" of the Emerging Markets.
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in reality, however, serious economic problems loomed just beneath the surface. By 2004, a large and rapidly growing share of the intellectual and physical assets of key sectors such as automotives and electronics was now located in China, Southeast Asia, and Latin America.
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China and Southeast Asia are on their way to becoming industrialized societies and have assumed solid leadership in several sectors, especially those that are technology and it&D-intensive. When the Shanghai-based NASA Aeronautics The Futures Group
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Consumers' however, exhibited a weary resignation to the extraordinary changes that had taken place in the global economy, and a sense of missed opportunities was pervasive. The decline in wages had leveled off, but the absence of well-paying jobs meant that most middle-class wage-earners were holding down two jobs, creating intense time poverty pressures.
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Asian needs and interests are now figured into international aviation treaties and landing rights agreements. The International Civil Aviation Organization has moved its world headquarters to Tokyo.
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Political Instability | Generally stable and peaceful we rid but lingering after effects of lost US trade war with China; world is organized around world trade and China & Southeast Asia at the core of global politics and economic power; some civil instability within countries not participating in global economy or with unreformed domestic economies.
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place campuses in Southeast Asia) ; education in Southeast Asia is well funded and is a technocratic meritocracy; in US, middle class is primarily educated in community colleges and state universities; US students pursuing medical, finance, and law curricula, plus retail and trade industries; in emerging countries, applied sciences and management strong.
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~ Technology development and | Very market driven; market need is defined by Pacific Rim | Application | consumers; R&D is out of US, tend to focus on "D" except in a few research-intensive industries such as biotechnology, | pharmaceuticals, and agriculture; US excellence also in l | finance, banking, medical, and other service sectors; I corporations may own great te hnologies, but it is developed and utilized out of US. Time Poverty Emerging markets are very hot markets with high time | Leisure Time, Entertainment | poverty; US and Europe are destine ions for global tourism; in US, time poverty chronic and comes from multijob l | families and unstable work situations; emerging markets' | | peak earners are workaholics, but next generation taking more frequent and more distant international vacations; l | even if small percent are leisure traveling, base population ~| is huge NASA Aeronautics The Futures Group
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l ~ Safely and Security | Information security predominates; personal and industrial | I | threats limited; security focused clobally on information | and intellectual property. ~ Access to space | Space programs driven by prigs ratio economic needs, | l I particularly of emerging markets; fat dancing and technology | l | would be made available by en erging and developed | L I markets alike.
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Economically harsh measures are required if the now obviously destructive levels of CO: emissions are to be reduced and global catastrophe avoided. Of all the world's major economic powers, the U.S.
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Wall Streets pressure for short-term profits resulted in significantly reduced funding for research and development across many industry segments. Moreover, increasing numbers of firms moved sourcing and manufacturing operations offshore to reduce costs and more effectively compete in the face of intense global competition.
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During this same period, Europe, Japan, China, and a number of countries on the Asian littoral experienced significant growth as a result of the improving efficiency of global capital markets targeted at investments in new and emerging global markets. As East Europe recovered from its depression in the 1980s and 1990s, it provided a major market for exports from the European Union (EU)
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This effort to maintain a strong clefense and advanced dual-technology base was partially funded through foreign sales, particularly to the Middle East and to emerging industrial powers in Southeast Asia. Many of these sales were through licensed production and technology transfer instruments.
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put even greater pressure on the government for decisive action in setting targets for emissions levels, supporting research, and ameliorating the social and economic consequences of attempting to meet the targets. The most developed industrialized nations led several diplomatic moves for concerted global action.
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There is continuing tension over hydrocarbon limits and credits and over national regulations and targets which often seem to favor local industries. Many nations have increased their defense budgets and strengthened their military forces to back up economic sanctions for states not cooperating with CO2 reduction protocols and for the simple reason that the future has become highly uncertain.
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Highly dependent on CO2 emitting industries, our resources are stretched very thin as we attack the problems. The poor business judgments of earlier times, combined with governments that recklessly pursued social spending and higher public debt, left the U.S.
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International Trade Intra-regional trade agreements prevail; cooperation within Environment trading groups; global harmonization on environmental issues; landing rights and air space highly regulated and tied to emissions credits; environmental crisis forces international cooperation. Political Instability High political and economic instability; tension over hydrocarbon limits; trade tensions; civil instability in disrupted economies; the future contains very high levels of uncertainty; some rearmament (significant in some cases)
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. Corporate Structure and Corporations are competitive if their markets are Operations contiguous with manufacturing location but are not competitive if they rely on long range transportation; there are incentives for the proliferation of technologies impacting products or services that reduce CO2 emissions; developing countries leverage for requiring offsets is primarily limited to CO2 emission credits; environmental regulations result in high production costs and high unemployment; US job | retention policies burden firms with sigh labor costs, inter- | | firm alliances across geographic reg ons to optimize CO2 | credits.
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Time Poverty | Time poverty is not a serious problem for most people; very Leisure Time, Entertainment local leisure and entertainment; home entertainment is very important; town picnics, county fairs, and tree planting outings. Global Transportation integrated infrastructure designed to reduce CO2 emissions; Infrastructure regulated access to infrastructure; trend toward smart infrastructure (e.g., metered auto access to highways)
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