Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035: Becoming a 21st-Century Force Volume 9: Modeling and Simulation (1997) / Chapter Skim
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4 Dealing With and Improving DOD's M&S
4 Dealing With and Improving DOD's M&S
Pages 49-61
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From page 49... ...
We now turn to those issues. Models as Repositories of Knowledge One reason that DOD's models, especially the higher-level models, have significant validity problems is that many model builders treat them merely as tools to be manipulated as required in the context of a particular study.
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From page 50... ...
Successful military operations are increasingly dependent upon the use of sound, well-documented models. Moreover, the advent of distributed simulation and the evolving character of DOD command and control systems serve as additional reasons why users of models will often not be part of the same organization that developed them.
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From page 51... ...
THE MULTIFACETED NATURE OF MODEL QUALITY What determines the "quality" of a model (including simulation models)
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From page 52... ...
This will require a major cultural shift (throughout the DOD community)
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From page 53... ...
Similarly, the actual cloud cover over a particular bridge at a particular time is known only when the time comes. But such things can be determined afterward from records.
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From page 54... ...
Commenting on the last two items as examples, the panel notes that much modern planning for next-generation warfare depends sensitively on the effectiveness of long-range precision strike. Theater-level analyses, however, typically estimate that effectiveness by merely concatenating planning factors about kills per sortie (or volley)
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From page 55... ...
For each such program the panel suggests providing terms of reference that explicitly demand empirical and theoretical research, not mere modeling. Further, the panel recommends review by science advisory panels, whose members are highly qualified in terms of educa tion and research experience.
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From page 56... ...
The panel notes, however, that it is not advocating that M&S and analysis be the province solely of "analysts." Involving military officers with substantial operational experience, and forcing modelers and analysts to become acquainted with operational realities, is critical. It is now arguably more feasible with the advent of distributed simulation as a key factor in training and exercises.
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From page 57... ...
. Much has been written about the subject, however, so the panel merely touches here upon highlights relevant to the current study.7 Roughly speaking, verification testing establishes whether a computer program correctly implements what was intended by the designer.
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From page 58... ...
Perhaps the most important is recognizing that model quality must be built in from the outset and that assuring high-quality knowledge content will often require years of continued effort and a permanent effort to maintain and update. With respect to VV&A, · VV&A should be seen as merely one part of a much larger effort to ensure model quality, an effort that depends for its success on understanding the relevant phenomena, representing it in modeling terms appropriate for intended applications, implementing that representation in a computer model, and seeking out aggressively the data needed to use the model.
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From page 59... ...
Consistent with this, managers and sponsors of M&S need to support the knowledge base with a broad range of information collection and empirical testing, as suggested by the shaded portion of Figure 4.4. This suggests the need for a long-term program to do so, because, in practice, shorter-term efforts such as the effort to do the computer coding for a model seldom if ever can do more than a tiny fraction of what Figure 4.4 suggests.
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From page 60... ...
The panel recognizes that this runs counter to the natural desire of the military and civilian managers who want to have their models certified once and for all, but the conclusion is central. If one truly cares about M&S quality, rather than about having gotten a "check mark" for that M&S, then the context of use is critical.
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From page 61... ...
Today, such conceptual models often do not even exist and hence cannot be reviewed, but that situation should change. The current emphasis on building and publishing object models is an important step in the right direction, as is work on common models of the mission space (CMMS)
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