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Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty Interim Report 1, Evaluation of 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations (1997) / Chapter Skim
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C. CENSUS BUREAU'S METHODOLOGY FOR MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES
Pages 63-68

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From page 63...
... the modification of the county estimates so that they add to the state estimates; and (4) the use of the estimated number of related children aged 5-17 as a denominator to produce estimates of the percentage of those children in poverty.
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From page 64...
... . 2The estimated number of poor school-age children is the product of the weighted 3-year average CPS county poverty rate for related children aged 5-17 and the weighted 3-year average CPS county number of related children aged 5-17.
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From page 65...
... Since the census sampling variances are relatively small, variance due to model error is about 88 percent of the mean square error in the census regression model. This estimated model variance is assumed to closely approximate the model variance for an (unweighted)
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From page 66...
... The methodology for development of the 1989 state estimates is described below; similar methods were used for 1993 estimates, following the specifications that were found to work well for 1989. The regression model for producing state estimates of the proportion of school-age children in poverty has the following form (for details, see Fay,1996~: Yit = It + Zit ~ + eit where: J i = the state of interest, t = the year of estimation, = the covariate, 4This section draws heavily from the Census Bureau's documentation (Pay, 1996)
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From page 67...
... Next, a regression model was built for the CPS estimates of school-age children's poverty rates in 1989. The covariates that were predictive in the regression models with census estimates of school-age children's poverty rates as the dependent variable were selected for inclusion in this model, along with the residuals from the regression of the 1980 census estimates of children's poverty rate on the same covariates.
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From page 68...
... The estimated variances for the random effects were calculated using maximum likelihood estimation. One complication of this approach is that the mean and the variance of the estimated poverty rates are linked, in the sense that the variance of an estimated proportion (p)
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Key Terms

  • poverty rates
  • square error
  • sampling variance
  • dependent variable
  • children aged

  • cps estimates
  • related children
  • estimated sampling
  • census estimates
  • regression model

  • average cps
  • sampling variances
  • variance due
  • county estimates
  • state estimates

  • census regression
  • poverty rate
  • direct cps
  • poverty estimates
  • sampling variability

  • model variances
  • empirical bayes
  • poor related
  • variance estimates
  • independent variables

  • tax returns
  • cps regressions
  • variance function
  • regression models
  • state poverty


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