Preparing For the 2000 Census Interim Report II (1997) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix: Sampling in the 2000 Census: Interim Report I
Appendix: Sampling in the 2000 Census: Interim Report I
Pages 85-98
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From page 85... ...
Rust, Editors Pane! to Evaluate Alternative Census Methodologies Committee on National Statistics Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council 85
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From page 86... ...
Alberts and Dr. Harold Liebowitz are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
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From page 89... ...
To reduce costs, increase response, increase accuracy across the venous levels of geography, and reduce differential undercoverage of population groups and among areas, the Census Bureau is redesigning the census process. The Census Bureau has identified innovative ways to improve the response rate of households and to use sampling and statistical estimation ~ See the report of the Panel to Evaluate Alternative Census Methods (Steffey and Bradburn, 1994)
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From page 90... ...
database. Many of these initiatives are new to decennial census procedures, and the significant improvements documented in the 1995 census test research memoranda on these ideas demonstrate serious efforts at revising the census process towards the goals of reducing costs, increasing response and accuracy, and reducing differential undercoverage for population subgroups.
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From page 91... ...
argues below that nothing in the census test, nor any other development, suggests that a decennial census that reduces costs, reduces nonresponse bias, increases accuracy, and reduces differential undercoverage can be conducted without the use of some form of sampling for mad! nonresponse follow-up and some form of sampling for integrated coverage measurement.
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From page 92... ...
do not appear capable of reducing these problems, and especially the differential undercount, to any appreciable extent. Although the initiatives to improve the master address list, develop outreach, make use of respondent-friendly instruments, use reminder cards, and other process improvements will help to reduce undercoverage and erroneous enumeration, we see no evidence from the 1995 census test to suggest that these enhancements alone will come acceptably close to eliminating the undercoverage and erroneous enumeration problems.
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From page 93... ...
In sampling, a measurable sampling variance will be substituted for the bias resulting from an uncontrolled sample. Thus, for enumerating the populations of states, congressional districts, state legislative districts, and many governmental units, we believe that it is likely that reductions in errors and omissions in enumeration will outweigh the introduction of sampling error.
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From page 94... ...
Assuming a fixed number of completed household enumerations and comparing direct versus truncated sampling then yields the result that direct application of sampling will likely sample these higher cost cases at a substantially greater rate than a plan that introduces sampling after some threshold response rate is achieved. By continuing to enumerate physically to a threshold without sampling, a larger percentage of the less costly cases may be completed.
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From page 95... ...
In this case, it is not clear that having each sampledhousehold represent nine others3 is preferable to having each sampled household represent itself and possibly one other. Moreover, we believe that the issue of truncation cut-off points should be resolved scientifically, using statistical criteria and examining the expected sampling variance at various levels of geography.
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From page 96... ...
Integrated coverage measurement in 2000 will differ from the coverage measurement component of previous censuses in several important ways. Two key instances are that it will have a larger sample size so that accurate estimates can be made at lower levels of aggregation, and it will be completed earlier than the postenumeration survey conducted in 1990.
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From page 97... ...
FINAL COMMENTS A combination of sampling for nonresponse follow-up and for integrated coverage measurement is key to conducting a decennial census at an acceptable cost, with increased accuracy and overall quality, and reduced differential undercoverage. Sampling and statistical procedures build on the strengths of traditional census operations to collect the information quickly, reduce the dependence on last-resort information, and aid in the development of a competent enumeration staff.
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From page 98... ...
1995 2000 Decennial Census Labor Force Issues: Escalating Enumeration Costs. Unpublished paper, Bureau of the Census, U.S.
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