Containing the Threat from Illegal Bombings An Integrated National Strategy for Marking, Tagging, Rendering Inert, and Licensing Explosives and Their Precursors (1998) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix J
Appendix J
Pages 347-351
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From page 347... ...
The likelihood of finding taggants that would unequivocally identify the source of the explosive would depend on the relative quantity of "correct" taggants compared to the quantity of contaminating taggants from different batches introduced from each source. If the exact relative amounts of taggant from each of these sources were known, the forensic reliability of a given taggant sample analysis could be stated with scientific precision by application of the laws of probability.
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From page 348... ...
Clearly, this factor will depend on the type of explosive involved and on the presence or absence of anticontamination measures taken during transportation and distribution, especially for bulk products such as AN. The factor 1 - y could be virtually 1 in favorable circumstances that might realistically apply to packaged explosives, but the committee estimates that a combination of contaminating effects especially relevant to bulk AN might at least temporarily reduce it to 0.8 (y = 0.2~.
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From page 349... ...
Although it would not be relevant in an urban setting, such a source of contamination could eventually become a significant issue where water runoff and/or animal ingestion and excretion tended to concentrate taggants locally. Environmental contamination might well be relatively unimportant in the early stages of a tagging program, but with the passage of time, slow environmental buildup could become an increasingly significant issue.
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From page 350... ...
The net occurrence probability for 7 or more of the 10 to possess an erroneous code is 0.0000 + 0.0005 + 0.0043 + 0.0212 = 0.0260 or 2.6 percent. This seems to be of sufficiently high magnitude to allow a legal challenge in court to the veracity of taggant evidence on the basis of the "beyond a reasonable doubt" criterion; still, such evidence might have forensic value in
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From page 351... ...
In assessing the resulting environmental contamination that such building materials might produce when directly involved at a criminal bombing event, it is estimated that about 1 taggant particle per 100 pounds of material could be anticipated. Clearly, though, a substantial uncertainty applies to this estimate.
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