Productive Roles in an Older Society (1986) / Chapter Skim
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Sociodemographic Aspects of Future Unpaid Productive Roles
Sociodemographic Aspects of Future Unpaid Productive Roles
Pages 110-148
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From page 110... ...
The purpose of this paper is to provide a background for consideration of the sociodemographic factors relating to unpaid productive roles in an aging society. The prospective nature of this task requires that use be made of projections or other analytic procedures that attempt to gauge the nature of the population structure in the decades ahead.
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From page 111... ...
Unpaid activities can be viewed as alternatives to paid work and as adaptations to changing life conditions. The dimensions of such activities, however, are even more complex in nature.
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From page 112... ...
~ provide a first slice of this potentially rich pie, we have elected in this paper to present some information about sociodemographic characteristics of the population that could possibly influence the levels of nonpaid productive activities in the future. We have relied upon existing national population projections and selected analytical studies in this effort.
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From page 113... ...
We suspect that such characteristics of the population as the age structure, sex composition, labor force participation, education, household structure and marital status, kinship structure, and health may be related to providers and users. In a real sense, we are actually only considering potential pools of such persons.
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From page 114... ...
The age distribution of the aged population fluctuates, as might-be expected, depending mainly on the size of entering cohorts. These structural dynamics have direct relevance for the issues raised in this paper and probably have greater importance than the size of the aggregate older population per se.
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From page 115... ...
In considering both demand and supply issues relating to unpaid productive roles, these characteristics clearly show the profound aging process that is under way, the full impact of which will not be felt until the baby-boom generation reaches old age. But the sanguine attitude that sometimes prevails regarding trends for the next few decades up to that point of explosion in the next century encourages a vision of a "breathing spell" that is probably unwarranted.
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From page 116... ...
(in thousands) 1980 1990 2000 Age Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female 227,658 110,834 116,824 249,657 121,518 128,139 267,955 130,491 137,464 0-416,4488,4138,03619,1989,8279,37117,6269,0228,604 5-916,5958,4828,10818,5919,5119,08018,7589,5999,159 10-1418,2279,3188,91916,7738,5868,20719,5199,9867,532 15-1921,12310,75810,36516,9688,6708,29918,9439,6819,262 20-2421,60510,90010,70518,5809,4339,13717,1458,7238,422 25-2919,7639,8769,88721,52210,87810,64517,3968,8048,592 30-3417,8248,8458,97922,00711,81410,99219,0199,5809,439 35-3914,1266,9669,16220,0019,93310,06821,75310,92510,828 40-4411,7525,7605,99217,8468,7999,04821,99010,94111,049 45-4911,0475,3725,67513,9806,8317,14819,7639,73910,024 50-5411,6845,6125,07511,4225,5195,90317,3568,4578,899 55-5911,6195,4836,13610,4334,9545,47913,2806,3636,917 60-6410,1344,6915,44310,6184,9175,70110,4874,9095,578 65-698,8053,9144,8919,9964,4585,5389,0964,1084,989 70-746,8432,8733,9708,0393,4054,6348,5813,6654,196 75-794,8151,8562,9596,2602,4363,8257,2952,8694,426 80-842,9721,0301,9424,0891,4202,6695,0231,7713,252 85-891,5414831,0582,1576421,5153,0259072,118 90-945751644118492116381,3553351,020 95-9913034962535519843890348 100+268185411421081890 0-47.2%7.6%6.9%7.7%8.1%7.3%6.6%6.9%6.3 5-97.37.66.97.47.87.17.07.46.7 10-148.08.47.66.77.16.47.37.76.9 15-199.39.78.96.87.16.57.17.46.7 20-249.59.89.27.47.87.16.46.76.1 25-298.78.98.58.69.08.36.56.76.3 30-347.88.07.78.89.18.67.17.36.9 35-396.26.36.18.08.27.98.18.47.9 40-445.25.25.17.17.27.18.28.48.0 45-494.84.84.85.65.65.67.47.57.3 50-545.15.15.24.64.54.66.56.56.5 55-595.14.95.24.24.14.35.04.95.0 60-644.44.24.64.34.04.43.93.84.1 65-693.93.54.24.03.74.33.43.13.6 70-743.02.63.43.22.83.63.22.83.6 75-792.11.72.52.52.03.02.72.23.2 80-841.30.91.71.61.22.11.91.42.4 85-890.70.40.90.90.51.21.10.71.5 90-940.30.10.40.30.20.50.50.30.7 95-990.10.00.10.11.40.20.20.00.3 100 +0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.1 Total100.0 100.0100.0 100.0100.0 100.0100.0 100.0 100.0 SOURCE: U.S.
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From page 117... ...
PRODUCTIVE ROLES: SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC ASPECTS 117 2020 2050 2080 Age Metal Male Female Ibtal Male Female lUtal Male Female 296,597 144,457 152,140 309,488 149,419 160,070 310,762 149,901 160,862 0-418,357 9,397 8,960 17,665 9,043 8,621 17,202 8,808 8,395 5-918,590 9,513 9,077 18,051 9,220 8,796 17,471 8,942 8,529 10-1418,306 9,366 8,939 18,217 8,322 8,895 17,747 9,083 8,644 15-1917,958 9,181 8,778 18,251 9,331 8,920 17,940 9,174 8,766 20-2418,308 9,324 8,984 18,381 9,362 9,019 18,103 9,222 8,881 25-2919,533 9,898 9,635 18,892 9,574 9,318 18,418 9,335 8,083 30-3420,301 10,252 10,049 18,491 9,844 9,647 18,819 9,506 9,313 35-3919,644 8,890 9,754 19,658 9,903 8,756 19,106 9,626 9,480 40-4417,699 8,874 8,826 18,186 9,635 9,552 19,116 9,604 9,513 45-4917,559 8,767 8,792 18,553 9,280 9,274 18,866 9,443 9,423 50-5418,621 9,230 9,391 18,439 9,169 9,270 18,568 9,243 9,325 55-5920,507 10,059 10,449 18,824 9,275 9,550 18,344 9,054 9,290 60-6419,791 9,495 10,296 18,503 8,985 9,518 17,970 8,754 9,216 65-6916,080 70-7413,325 75-798,824 80-845,662 85-893,582 90-942,158 95-99975 100 +361 7,7218,899 5,8537,381 3,6175,207 2,0783,585 1,1212,466 5551,063 206769 60301 16,6197,872 13,4956,133 11,4784,891 9,7853,795 7,8252,649 4,9151,405 2,261541 1,029191 8,747 16,914 7,363 14,984 6,587 12,659 5,990 10,305 5,179 7,977 3,510 5,433 1,720 2,946 838 1,870 8,059 8,855 6,880 8,105 5,486 7,172 4,091 6,213 2,800 5,178 1,650 3,783 766 2,181 372 1,498 0-46.2% 6.5% 5.9% 5.7~o 6.1% 5.4% 5.5% 5.9% 5.2 5-96.3 6.6 6.0 5.8 6.2 5.5 5.6 6.0 5.3 10-146.2 6.5 5.9 5.9 6.2 5.6 5.7 6.1 5.4 15-196.1 6.4 5.8 5.9 6.2 5.6 5.8 6.1 5.4 20-246.2 6.5 5.9 5.9 6.3 5.6 5.8 6.2 5.5 25-296.6 6.9 6.3 6.1 6.4 5.8 5.9 6.2 5.6 30-346.8 7.1 6.6 6.3 6.6 6.0 6.1 6.3 5.8 35-396.6 6.8 6.4 6.4 6.6 6.1 6.1 6.4 5.9 40-446.0 6.1 5.8 6.2 6.4 6.0 6.2 6.4 5.9 45-495.9 6.1 5.8 6.0 6.2 5.8 6.1 6.3 5.9 50-546.3 6.4 6.2 6.0 6.1 5.8 6.0 6.2 5.8 55-596.9 7.0 6.9 6.1 6.2 6.0 5.9 6.0 5.8 60-646.7 6.6 6.8 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7 65-695.6 5.3 5.8 5.4 5.3 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 70-744.5 4.1 4.9 4.4 4.1 4.6 4.8 4.6 5.0 75-793.0 2.5 3.4 3.7 3.3 4.1 4.1 3.7 4.5 80-841.9 1.4 2.4 3.2 2.5 3.7 3.3 2.7 3.9 85-891.2 0.8 1.6 2.5 1.8 3.2 2.6 1.9 3.2 90-940.7 0.4 1.1 1.6 0.9 2.2 1.7 1.1 2.4 95-990.3 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 1.1 0.9 0.5 1.4 100+0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.9 Metal100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 No.952. Washington, D.C.: U.S.
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From page 118... ...
MYERS ET AL. TABLE 2 Selected Statistics on Population 65 Years of Age and Over, United States 1980-2080 (Middle Series Projections)
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From page 119... ...
The lowest series reflects a low fertility assumption of 1.6 births per woman, a low net migration of 250,000 persons, and high mortality. The middle series reflects middle assumptions on fertility with 1.9 births per woman, a net migration of 450,000 persons per year, and middle mortality.
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From page 120... ...
Government Printing Office. next 50 years, and the proportion of the aged population will closely approach 20 percent.
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From page 121... ...
LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION Forecasts of labor force participation up to the year 2000 have recently been prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as part of general economic projections made to 1995. These labor force participation rates are then simply applied to projected census figures to determine the size of the labor force at future dates.
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From page 122... ...
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From page 123... ...
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From page 124... ...
MYERS ET AL. TABLE 5 Labor Force Participation Rates by Age and Sex, United States, 1982-1995 (Middle Series Projections)
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From page 125... ...
From a supply point of view, the pool of women younger than 60 years of age and potentially available for service to others is expected to decline to the year 2000. On the other hand, both TABLE 6 Projected Labor Force Participation by Age and Sex 1980-2055 (in millions)
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From page 126... ...
by Hendricks and Storey (1981) has examined different assumptions regarding the effect of mandatory retirement policies on labor force participation rates of men in the year 2000.
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From page 127... ...
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From page 128... ...
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From page 129... ...
This examination of projected labor force participation and income expectations lends weight to the view that paid work among older persons is not likely to increase significantly in the future, thereby supporting the idea that other unpaid activities can be an alternative condition for sizable numbers in the growing older population. To the extent that higher proportions of women stay in the labor force until retirement, then the potential pool is diminished; but for those turning 66 the prospects are not diminished.
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From page 130... ...
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From page 131... ...
There is virtual neglect in forecasting educational attainment in official population projections; the last Bureau of the Census effort at projecting education dates back to 1972. In contrast, projections of school enrollment at various levels of schooling, especially over the short term, are very common.
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From page 132... ...
To the extent that formal educational attainment is positively related to more productive roles, then the next few decades should witness a great improvement in this regard. Of course, at the same time we should balance this against the likelihood of higher labor force participation rates, especially for better educated women, for cohorts up to the time they reach the older ages.
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From page 133... ...
cent at 75 years and above. Female nonfamily households, therefore, contain many very old persons a group generally viewed as a prime target population for special assistance.
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From page 134... ...
134 Lo Cal on I be ¢ o .
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From page 135... ...
Some of the fluctuations in the proportions of older persons in each marital status reflect the age compositions of the aged population. This is true for married and widowed categories, in particular, in which there are declines, then
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From page 136... ...
MYERS ET AL. TABLE 12 Marital Status of Population 65 Years and Over in the Social Security Area, by Sex, United States, 1980-2060 Year Total Single Married Widowed Divorced NUMBER Male 1980 10,397600 7,686 1,688424 2000 14,232716 10,128 2,1181,270 2020 21,5671,236 15,730 2,7431,858 2040 26,8411,951 18,798 3,7942,299 2060 28,1602,196 19,848 3,6022,514 Female 1980 15,544940 5,989 8,024590 2000 21,767980 8,092 9,9622,734 2020 30,9041,597 12,606 11,5135,188 2040 39,7882,289 15,473 16,1845,842 2060 41,6182,548 16,185 16,6936,192 Total 1980 25,9411,540 13,675 9,7121,014 2000 35,9991,696 18,220 12,0804,004 2020 52,4712,833 28,336 14,2567,046 2040 66,6294,240 34,271 19,9788,141 2060 69,7784,744 36,033 20,2958,706 PERCENTAGE Male 1980 100.0 5.8 73.9 16.2 4.1 2000 100.0 5.0 71.2 14.9 8.9 2020 100.0 5.7 72.9 12.7 8.6 2040 100.0 7.3 70.0 14.1 8.6 2060 100.0 7.8 70.5 12.8 8.9 Female 1980 100.0 6.0 38.5 51.6 3.8 2000 100.0 4.5 37.2 45.8 12.6 2020 100.0 5.2 40.8 37.2 16.8 2040 100.0 5.8 38.9 40.7 14.7 2060 100.0 6.14 38.9 40.1 14.9 Total 1980 100.0 5.9 52.7 37.4 3.9 2000 100.0 4.7 50.6 33.6 11.1 2020 100.0 5.4 54.0 27.2 13.4 2040 100.0 6.4 51.4 30.0 12.2 2060 100.0 6.8 51.6 29.1 12.5 SOURCE: U.S.
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From page 137... ...
Demographic trends pointing to steadily declining mortality at older ages, which increases survival, and continued Tow fertility levels have modified family structures by altering the number of siblings, children, and multigenerational families. Of particular importance for the topic is the increased likelihood that persons entering the older age categories will themselves have parents still living.
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From page 138... ...
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From page 139... ...
Even if we consider the projections under the unrealistic assumption of constant mortality, by the year 2003 the impact of the aging population may be clearly noted on all of the health dimensions examined. Declining mortality shows large increases over the 25-year period in terms of persons with limitations of activity, hospital short-stay visits, and especially nursing home residency (the number of such residents more than doubles under the assumed ratios)
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From page 140... ...
140 Ct Cat of o Cal ¢ o U: so LO ca o 5,~o, CQ Cal ·_4 ·_4 Cal U: cd E-°.
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From page 141... ...
Perhaps the simplest way to appreciate the age implications of the biomedical correlation of mortality, morbidity, and disability is to consider Figure 1. In this figure, the horizontal axis represents age and the vertical axis represents the proportion of a birth cohort that would survive to a given age without experiencing a particular type of health status change.
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From page 142... ...
Clearly, this latter question is of critical importance in determining both the demand for various types of volunteer services among the elderly and the potential pool of elderly who are healthy and able to provide such services. Although the need for projections giving the age change in the relation of mortality to other health status is clear, such projections rarely have been performed.
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From page 143... ...
As we can see, the age-specific prevalence of morbidity rises initially and is followed secondarily by a rapid increase in disability at later ages. The use of projections that interrelate various population health states in this way does not resolve all of the issues in assessing health, health service utilization, and the implications of health for the supply of and demand for volunteer services.
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From page 144... ...
The rather poor record that has been achieved in projecting the numbers of aged persons in the past reflects on the inadequacy of mortality forecasts that failed to capture the dramatic declines in mortality at older ages during the past decade. The changes in labor force participation at points of retirement demand careful single-year-of-age determinations, but these issues have only recently been pursued and no current data are available in published form.
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From page 145... ...
This may be disconcerting to the users, but it also reflects on the lack of systematic interplay of crucial dimensions within the projections themselves. For example, labor force projections are made without consideration of such factors as educational attainment and marital status.
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From page 146... ...
1982. "Cross-national Variations in Marital Status Among The Elderly." Paper presented at Gerontological Society of America Meetings, Boston, Massachusetts.
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From page 147... ...
1980. United States Population Projection by Marital Status for OASDI Cost Estimates, 1980.
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