The Positive Sum Strategy Harnessing Technology for Economic Growth (1986) / Chapter Skim
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From page 623... ...
and Japan, 345-352 technological strength in U.S., 395 Ailbus Industries, 299, 490 AirczaR industry 623 competitiveness of, 489~91 and Concorde as commercial failure, 147, 277, 299 economic benefits of jet engines in, 25 financing by banks, 461 innovations in 28~281, 299 in Japan, 557, 559-560 new technology affectung, 495 ong~ns of turbojet engine, 285 shortage of trained personnel in, 494 495 Altshuler, Alan, 134 Amdahl, Japanese investment in, 426 Amender Association for the Advancement of Scicoce, 128 American Electronics Association, 468 American National Standards Institute, 160 American Society for Testing Materials, 160 Ames test for mutagenic chemicals, 198 Antirust policies modifications On, 132, 161, 188, 524, 53~532 res~icove effects of, 259 Aoki, Masahiko, 3, 7, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 569581, 593, 595, 607 Apollo, performance in stock market, 470 Apparel industry competitiveness of, 486 487 innovations in, 280 productivity grown in, 331 Arab oil embargo, 19, 72-73 Adler, Wemer, 220 Argentina, agricultural producu~nty of, 346 Arrow, Kenneth J 312, 384 Arthur, Bnan, 364 376, 385
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From page 624... ...
and Japan, 583-606 in global markets, 463 464 incentives for fonnation of, 537 input of. See Investment internationalization of flow, 4708 ratio to labor, 585, 591 and grounds rate, 36 in information sector, 98-99
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3, 377-378, 501-509, 521, 539, 542 productivity affecting, 583-584 and role of private sector, 133 and shortage of trained personnel, 494-495,506 and spending for research and development, 133, 135 in steel industry, 480485 steps for improvement in, 514-515, 523-525 targeting in, 12 technology affecting, 495, 504 505 and technology gap in U.S., 131 In textile industry, 486 487 and trade policies, 507-508 Comrce-Dripps study, in evaluation of basic research, 27~271 Computer industry and CAD/CAM, 29, 94, 293 in Japan, 559 competitiveness of, 483 development costs in, 299 improvements in price and performance, 114 445 personal computers in, 437-439, 450 software availability affecting, 383 Computer use applications of, 30 and changes in industries, 280, 281 in telecomrnunicanons industry, 282 Computervision, performance in stock meet, 470 Concorde, as commercial failure, 147, 277, 299 Congressional Budget Office projections to year 1989, 48 views on economic grown, 57, 74 Conoco, 400 Constant, Edward W., 285 Consumer Products Safety Act, 205 Consumer spending as economic policy, 524 Keynesian analysis of, 14 45 and low savings rates, 15 Contact, related to market, 170 Convergent Technologies, Inc., 476 Coover, H W., 9, 12, 14, 105, 113, 289, 295, 399 416,587,610 Corn varieties, development of, 342 Corporate partnering, 14, 45~451, 475, 579-580 Corporate planning for innovation, 399-416 Carson, Dale R., 161 Costs of capital, 505-506
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From page 626... ...
See also Defense spending Department of Energy, 128, 130, 132, 133, 153 INDEX Department of Science and Technology, 504 Department of Trade, 507 Developing countnes, competitiveness of, 494 Development costs, affecting innovation, 298-300, 304 Diffusion of technology, 14, 318-320,373-389, 529 and concem with innovation, 37~378 costs of, 382-383 related to output, 381 research and development affecting, 383 demand factors in, 38 0 382 federal funding of, 387 and feedback information from users, 15, 277, 286-287, 289, 293, 384 and heterogeneity of adopters, 380 and implications for public policies, 386-389 rnicroeconomics of, 378-386 and nature of accumulated skills and markets, 396 performance improvements affecting, 384 and personnel turnover as information~issemination mechanism, 384 policy interventions affecting, 373-376 and protection of property, 14 and replacement of existing facilities, 381 and states of equilibrium, 380 supply factors in, 382-386 and survival of durable facilities, 381 time factors in, 381-382, 38~387 Digital Equipment, 450 DiLorenzo, J., 254 Dingle, R., 249, 254 Discipline, related to technology, 259 Discontinuines, technological, as key to grown, A~ 4_~ ,,, Tree Distribution of products, changes in, 437039 DNA research, 213-225 central dogma in, 215-216 double helix in, 214-215 Finding for, 225 and genetic code, 21~217 recombinant procedures in, 22~222, 429 regulation of, 223-224 replication in, 217-218 restriction enzymes in, 219-220 and rules for gene expression, 218 in Tudor Muses, 219 Doko, Toshio, 572 Doll, Richard, 419 Dollar valuation economic effects of, 8 increase in 1984, 90 and international made, 506 Donahue, Jew, 214 Drucker, Peter, 458 Dwomer, G W., 444, 445 Du Pont Company, 400, 414, 430 Dupree, A
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See also Energy programs Electron capture, 246 Electronics industry, 423-427 in Asian countnes, 566 competitiveness of, 482-484 development costs in, 299 in Japan, 547-552 new technology affecting, 495 patents in affecting imitation costs 314 affecting innovations, 3i6 product distribution in, 437~39 shortage of trained personnel in, 494 standardization in, 438~39 and technological Wills in venous countries, 395 Made deficit in, 426, 503 Eli Lilly, 430, 432, 468 Eta, Yehudla, 135 ElIsworth, Richard R., 605 Embodiment hypothesis, and rate of technical change, 40 Employment, and factors in job creation, 519-520 Energy prices and inflation, 42 and oil crisis. See Oil prices and productivity growth, 69, 72-73 and reallocation of output, 6~65 Energy programs development costs in, 299 for solar energy, 277 federal investments in, 132 financing by banks, 462 and improvements in electric power generation 282-283 education for7 255-262 as manufaculli31g technologists, 113, 134 number in U.S.
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semiconductor companies, 426 Foreign trade, 77-88, 479-498. See also Competitiveness in foreign trade Foster Associates, 310 France agricultural productivity of, 346 defense expenditures in, 108 economic grown in, 62 slowdown in, 63 INDEX expenditures for research and development in, 136, 557 government expenditures in, 111 labor costs in, 588 productivity related to investment rate, 144 Frankel, M., 381 Freeman, Christopher, 376 French, Ben C., 341 Fnedlaender, Ann F., 5, 6, 327-332, 611 Friedman, Milton, 44, 45 Fujitsu, investment in Amdahl, 426 Fusion energy program, international, 157-158 Gas utilizes, productivity growth in, 331 Gene expression, rules for, 218 Genentech, Inc., 35S, 429, 430, 432, 441 General Electric, 24 General Motors corporate partnenag by, 45~451 expenditures for research and development, 300 performance in stock market, 468 Generic applied research, 15~157 Genetic code, solving of, 21~217 Genetic engineering, 222.
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See Taxes wage and price controls in, 43 Grabowski, Henry G., 122 Great Society programs, 130, 184 Greece, agncultum1 productivity of, 346 Gregory, Gene, 143 Gregory, William H., 133, 155 Griliches, Z., 135, 152, 308, 310, 322, 345, 378 Growth at aggregate level, analysis of, 59-63 capital input affecting, 3, 59, 63, 64 divergent views on prospects for, 57-58, 74 energy prices affecting, 72-73 factors affecting, 35-36 government policies for, 4, 535-539 "d interest on national debt, 51 labor input affecting, 59, 63, 64 limits to, 4, 19 long-term prospects for, 3, 19, 21, 35-36 obstacles to, 12-13 and per capita income, 35, 36 and productivity, 59-65 quality of labor force a~feciung, 3 rates in U.S., 2, 62 rates in venous countnes, 62 reallocations affemug, 63, 64 at sectom1 level, analysis of, 63-65 and short-tenn concems, 3, 21 slowdown in, 41, 62, 73 in various countries, 63 and supply-side economics, 47, 58, 74 technical changes ffecting, vi-ix, 3, 4-5 and unexplained residual, 63, 73 Hagstrom, Homer, 252-253 Haul, R E., 46, 602 Hambrecht & Quist Incorporated, 447, 563, 618 Handler, Philip, 122 Hanson, Ward A., 383 Harger, Alan E., 129 Harvey Aluminum, 177 Hatsopoulos, George N., 2, 5, 6, 11, 12, 13, 14 583-606 612 Hayanii, Yujiro 340 Health care basic research in, 270-271 and development of "orphan drugs," 154-155, 202 and investments in technologies, 155 research issues in, 265-267 support for research in, 154 technology affecting, 369-371 Health Research Facilities Act of 1968, 264 Hewlett, William R., 10, 11, 441-442, 594, 612 Hewlett-Packard Company, 446, 594 Hicks, John, 3 High Penn Oil Company, 176 Himsworth, Harold, 215 Histoncal aspects of econoIriic events in 1970s, 41 44 of impact of technological changes, 17-32 Hodder, James L., 595 Hollomon, J
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From page 630... ...
See also Risk taking and service employment, 31 and stages of product cycle, 295 state of knowledge affecting, 295-296, 304 technical needs in, 27S, 276 technological environment affecting, 327-332 and technological levels of venous countries 390395 tinting of, 277, 301 uncertainty in, 275-276, 294-298, 303 and unemployment, 4, 20, 28-31 Instruments industry patents affecting innovation in, 316 productivity growth in, 331 Instrunnentation, in university and research labm ratories, investment in, 138-139 Insurance industry, productivity grown in, 331 Intel Corporation, 424, 425, 441, 463, 477 Intellectual property and expansion of information industry, 188 and flow of research information, 16~161 international trade in, 142-143 protection of, 151 Intelligence, artificial, development in Japan, 560 Interest rates and cost of capital, 506 and deficit financing, 47, 48, 49, 85 and initial public offering maricet, 468 and investment activity, 14 in Japan, 599 levels in 1984, 90 and ratio of national debt to GNP, 51 International Badness Machines Corporation (El M) business units of, 476 expenditures for research and development, 299 outlook in 1950s, 30 personal computers of, 439, 450 stock offering in 1951, 467 work on Josephson junction, 552 International capital markets, 463-464
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semiconductor companies, 426 agricultural productivity of, 334, 335, 346 technical changes affecting, 345-352 a~rc~ft industry in, 490, 557, 559-560 auto industry in, 85-87, 328, 395, 482, 542 bond issues in, 572 capabilities in artificial intelligence, 560 capital exports of, 463, 580 capital formation in, 583-606 cost of, 11 changing market structures in, 465 charactenstics of technological achievements in, 553-554 competitive strategies of, 1-2, 146, 512 cooperation among firms in, 161 deficit problem ill, 572 economic grown in, 62 slowdown in, 63 economic policies in, 12, 569-573 new goals for, 573-574 educational system in, 258-259, 544, 545, 555556, 564, 574 electronics industry in, 483, 484, 547-552 631 energy price increases in, 73 exchange rate system in, 570-571 exports of high technology products, 144 ratio to imports, 546 generic research in, 157 government expenditures in, 111 for biotechnology, 431 for defense, 108 for research end development, 136, 137,544, 545-546, 548, 550, 557 government policies affecting innovation in, 397 imports of foreign technology, 543-544 ratio to exports, 546 interest rates in, 599 investment in manufactunng, 548 labor costs in, 530, 571, 572, 589 labor force in, 544, 545, 548 productivity of, 366 land reform policy in, 570, 571 manufactunag technology in, 112 marketing development in, 548 materials technology in, 146 Ministry of Intemanonal Trade and Industry, 536, 542, 544, 571 monemy policies in 571 national goals in, 16 national research projects in, 561-562 numberof scientists and engineers in, 113, 137138 patents granted in U.S., 142 produce design in, and market penetration, 146 productivity in, 502, 529 related to investment rate, 143, 144 protectionism in, 107, 300 domestic, 553 role of banks in, 456 savings in, 576-578, 591-592 semiconductor industry in, 133-134, 549-552 space industry in, 557, 558-559 strengths and w~esses is, 547-563 structural changes in, 564 567 successful industries in, 547-554 targeted technologies in, 554-564, 570576 tax policies in, 572, 592-593 technological position of, 394-395 as follower, 511 546 as leader, 546 textile ~ndusty in, 384, 486087 venture capital in, 544, 545, 562-563, 578580, 594 very large scale in~amd Circuit project in, 549, 550, 561, 575 welfare system in, 570, 572 Job creation, factors in, 519-520 John Deere & Company, 84, 87 Johns-Manville Products Corporation, 181 Johnson adminis~on, 43, 59, 126, 184 Johnson & Jolson, stock issues in, 468 Jones, Jim, 468 Jorgenson, Dale W., 2, 4, 5, 46,57-74,322,330 331, 584, 602, 613-614 Josephson juncuan, work on, 552 Kamien, M., 324
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and other counmes, 137-138 personnel turnover as information~issemin~non mechanism, 384 quality of and growth rate, 3,36 and productivity, 143 ratio to capital, 585, 591 in infonnation sector, 98-99 in mechanic agricultural system, 344 and productivity change, 100 reallocation of, 64 shortage of Owned personnel in, 494 495, 506, 537 Labor-saving innovations, effects of, 29 Landau, Ralph, v-x, 1-16, 117, 583-606, 615 Landes, D., 397 INDEX Large companies entrepreneurial spirit in, 518-519 financing by banks, 4~462 innovations introduced by, 318, 449-451 interaction with small companies, 14, 361, 519, 520 risk taking in investments, 113 transition from entrepreneurs, 441-442 Laser technology applications of, 28 discovery of, 250 in Japan, 556 manpower and resources in, 560 pulsed beans on crystal surfaces, 246 Lawrence, Robert Z., 143 Layton, Edwin T., 123 Leaming-by-doing hypothesis, and rate of technical change, 40 Leather industry, productivity growth in, 331 Legal Services Corporation, 187 Legal system, 169-189 compared to bureaucracies, 13, 15, 187 constraining aspects of, 17~183 as facilitator of enterprise and innovation, 17 171 federal structure of, 187 and judicial fact finding, 182-183 and liability issues, 13 and litigation increase in U.S., 187 and right to counsel, 187 shift in emphasis of, 527, 528, 530, 532 shifting judicial trends in, 18 - 186 technological development affecting, 172- 1? 4 tort law in, 170182 and availability of information about hazards, 197-198 bipolar disputes in, 192-193, 201 compensation in, 181-182, 200 201, 20 209 and competence of courts and agencies, 203204 doctrine of negligence in, 17=175 doctrine of nlii~ce in, 175- 178, 192- 193 doctrine of strict products liability in, 178182, 186 expansion in reach of, 197 expert opinions in, 204 206 and focus on public risk, 191-210 imps ties and liability remits in, 201-203 multiparty disputes in, 193-194 and political legitimacy, 209-210 regressive incentives in, 199-200 and rule of proportional causation, 194 as social engineering, 201 timing of actions in, 190197 Levin, Richard, 322 Lewis, Jordan D., 132 Liability of manufacturers affecting grown, 13 and limits on tort recovenes, 202-203 market share of, 193-194 tort doctrine of, 178-182, 186 Libya, agricultural productivity of, 346 Life sciences research, support for, 126, 154
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From page 633... ...
indusmes, 495 Mansfield, Edwin, 4, 6, 14, 152, 153, 159, 307323, 332, 376, 378, 381, 616 Manufacturing investments in in Japan, 548 in U.S., 503 labor force in, 354 productivity of, 359 lack of interest in, 505 productivity in in Japan, 59~591 in U.S., 365, 59~591 rate of return from research and development spending, 308 shortage of trained personnel in, 494 Marconi, [Guglielmol, 25, 26 Market adjustment mechanisms in, 19, 20, 21 development costs for narrow markets, 15~155 distribution channels in, 437039 entry affected by imitation costs, 314 government intervention in, 15, 147 identification of needs in, 409 and innovations, 275, 276, 278, 289-290 penetration strategies of Japanese, 146 policies affecting participation in, 537 and political decision making, 161-162 ~ _ ~ 7 _ ~ 7 _ _ Martin, B., 395 Marker, James D., 10, 11,14, 470,473-478,593, 594, 616 Marx, Karl, 4, 20, 28 Materials price of, and productivity grown, 69 technology in Japan, 146 Mauritius, agnculnm1 productivity of, 346 Mechanical technology in Japan and U.S., prices affecting, 350 Mechanization research in agriculture, 340341, 344 Medical care. See Health care Medicare system, 49-50 Mernfield, D
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From page 634... ...
and foreign inventors, 141-142 and imitation COStS, 313-314 and incentives for risk taking, 537 and innovation rate, 315-316 and intellectual property nghts, 151
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From page 635... ...
G., 231 Pharmaceutical industry competitiveness of, 488-489 development of"orphan drugs," 154-155,202 expenditures for research, 489 for animal drugs, 339 international technology transfer in, 319-320 and legal problems of vaccine industry, 197, 199, 202 market share liability of, 193 new technology affecting, 495 patents in affecting imitation costs, 314 affecimg innovation, 31S, 316 problems of, 11 regtllation by FDA, 148-149, 433 434 Phelps, Edmund, 45 Philippines, agriculn~1 productivity of, 346 Phillips, Julia, 254 Phillips Curve, 40, 42, 45 Photonics, 231, 251 Physical science studies, 227-254 chronology of, 228-230 in crystals and glasses, 231-234 in hymns, 242-244 and innovations in electronics and photonics, 249-254 in nuclear science and radioisotopes, 248-249 and phase rule applications, 234 242 in surface technology, 241 248 Pickens, Boone, 599 Pigou, A C., 170 PiLkington, Alasmr, 358 Piper AS Corporation, 180 Planar Corporation, 475 635 Planning for innovation, in co~poranons, 399016 Plant vaneties' research in development of, 341343 Poate, J
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From page 636... ...
See also Agriculture, research and development in in automobile industry, 134 in biotechnology, 430 in chemical industry, 400, 417-418 INDEX comparative expenditures in venous countries 135-137 corporate planning for, 402 416 assessment of, 411-412 base program in, 406-407 business area analysis in, 405 business aspects of, 412-413 commercialization target date in, 410 company goal in, 407 defining of responsibilities in, 402-403 identification of needs in, 409 innovation project stage in, 410 integration of information in, 413-416 levels of planning in, 403-408 marketing in, 410 project managers in, 411 projections in, 404 stretch position in, 407 and costs of marketing, 109- 110 expenditures in France, 557 expenditures in Japan, 544, 545-546, 548' 550, expenditures in United Kingdom, 544 and government contracts with private organizations, 124-126 government expenditures in U.S., 4, 6, 38, 116, 263, 401, 504, 544, 557 affecting growth rate, 3, - 5 in agriculture, 337-344, 353 in biotechnology, 430 controversial areas in, 152-158 distribution of, 128, 131 estimation with GNP deflator, 317 in postwar era, 128-135 and rate of technical change, 36 risk taking in, 152-153 and role of private sector, 133 trends in, 126-128 and incitation costs, 383 impact on competitiveness in interrlat~onal trade, 133, 135 industrial spending for' 13~ 134, 299-300 ratio to GNP, 137 and international technology transfer, 320 military' and contracts with scientists, 123-124 partnerships in, 10, 111, 161, 432-433, 446, 476 in pharmaceutical industr,, 339, 489 price indexes for mputs in, 310318 private funding of, 123, 133, 401 trends in, 12~128 rate of retum from, 308-311 in agnculture, 308, 310, 330335 relation to productivity grown, 308-309, 332 subsidies for, and diffusion of technology, 375 tax credits for, 159, 537 and technology transfer costs, 383 for waste disposal management, 149-150 Resources allocation to less productive uses, 64 oprimi7~iion of, 3 Retraining of labor force, need for, 13 Rhode, Paul, 387 Ricardian equivalence theorem, 46, 47
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From page 637... ...
, 78, 8~81 RNA research, 215-216, 217 Roach, Stephen S., 7, 8, 93-103, 587, 620 Roberts, Paul Craig, 58 Robotics application of, 505 in Japan, 542 technological strength in Europe, 395 use in manufactunag, 146 Rockefeller Foundation, 215, 216 Rogers, Everett M., 319, 387 Romeo, Anthony A., 378 Roosevelt, Franklin D., 124 Rose, Mark H., 120 Rosenberg, David, 204 Rosenberg, Nathan, v-x, i_16, 17-31, 120, 121, 130, 157, 275-304, 375, 380, 384, 459, 460, 461, 462, 559, 620 Rubber industry and development of synthetic rubber, 284 patents affecting innovation in, 316 productivity growth in, 331 Rurtan, Vernon, 8, 13, 322, 333-354, 387, 395, 584, 620-621 Sahal, Devendra, 380 Sarcoma, A., 134, 146 Salter, W
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From page 638... ...
K., 387 Sturmer, H., 254 INDB Superfund law, 420 Super-Phenix reactor program, 158 Supersonic aircraft transport and British-French Concorde project, 147, 277, 299 cancelled by U.S. Senate, 130, 131, 147 Supply factors, in diffusion of technology, 382386 Supply-side economics, 47, 58, 74 Surface technology, 240248 Sunnam, agricultural productivity in, 346 Swanson, Robert A., 10 11, 13, 14, 15, 110, 358, 429-435, 44i, 511, 621 Sweden agricultural productivity in, 346 government expenditures in, 111 Switzerland agricultural productivity in, 346 government expenditures in, 111 textile machinery Tom, 486 Sylvania Electric Products, 449050 Syntex Corporation, 11, 430 Syria, agricultural productivity in, 346 System Industries, 538 Tachibanaki, Toschiaki, 592-593, 595, 601 Taiwan agricultural productivity in, 346 electronics industry in, 566 Tandem Computer Corporation, 478 Targeting policies, 12 and analysis of business areas, 405 in Japan, 554-564, 570576 Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982, 52 Taxes on capital gains proposal for increase in, 471 reduction in, 468 469 and competitiveness in foreign trade, 506 credit for household alternative investments, 159 credit for investments, 52-53, 70 ratio to statutory rate, 70 credit for research and development spendung, 159, 537 high marginal rates in, 42 and incentives for innovations, 14, 537 and investment projects, 13, 38 policies in Japan, 572, 592-593 and producti~riy growdl, 5, 69-12 and savings rate, 605 and slowdown in economic grown, 41 on Social Security benefits, 50 and spending decisions, 44 45, 46 and supply-side economics, 47 value-added tax, 492 and venture capital availability, 431, 447, 448 Taylor, C., 314 Technological change.
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From page 639... ...
483-484 computers in, 282 development costs in, 299 network technologies in, 329, 383 Telefonica, 464 Telephones, voice transducers in, 246 Television set production decline in U.S., 542 in Japan, 542 Terleckyj, N., 308 Texas Instruments. 467 Textile industry competitiveness of, 480487 in Japan, 384 management problems in, 495 new technology affecting, 495 patents affecting innovation in, 316 productivity growth in, 331 shortage of trained personnel in, 494 Thailand, government expenditures in, 111 Thermodynamics, Second Law of, 84, 229-230 Thomassen, K
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From page 640... ...
See also Labor, costs of ~ INDEX and competition in world market, 502 increased rates in Japan, 571 and productivity grown, 69 schemes for control of, 43 Waldrop, M Mitchell, 133, 155 Wallerstein, Mitchel 13., 161 Wang Laboratories, 463, 470 Waste management and hazardous dump sites,.419, 420 and health effects of dump sites, 421 and investments in research and development, 149- 150 and multiparty legal disputes, 193 and tort immunity of companies, 202 Water pollution regulations, and technological innovations, 159 Water power, use of, 285 Watson, James D., 6, 9, 13, 15, 213-225, 227, 362, 621 Watson, Thomas J., 30, 364 Waves and particles, dualism of, 246 Weather services, as public goods, 155 Weaver, Warren, 215 Weigle, Jean, 220 Westem Union, 24 White, Kerr, 266 Wiegma=, W., 249 Winter, S., 322 Wood industry, productivity growth in, 331 Worker's compensation systems, 201 World War II, and development of American science policy, 121, 123-124 Wright brothers, 25 Wyse Technology, 474 Yellin, Joel, 204 Young, John A., 7, 9, 11, 12, 13, 501-509, 521, 533, 539, 604, 621-622 Yuba Power Products, 178 Yugoslavia, agricultural productivity of, 346 Zschau, Ed, 6, 7, 15, 110, 468, 535-539, 622
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