Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty Interim Report 2, Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations (1998) / Chapter Skim
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APPENDIX D. COUNTY MODEL COMPARISONS WITH 1990 CENSUS ESTIMATES
APPENDIX D. COUNTY MODEL COMPARISONS WITH 1990 CENSUS ESTIMATES
Pages 133-165
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From page 133... ...
Average absolute difference: the sum over all counties of the absolute (unsigned) difference between the model estimate of poor school-age children and the 1990 census estimate for each county, divided by the number of counties (3,141)
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From page 134... ...
and (4) , the counties are grouped into categories of the following characteristics: census division; metropolitan status of county; population size in 1990; population growth from 1980 to 1990; percent poor school-age children in the 1980 census; percent Hispanic population in 1990; percent black population in 1990; persistent poverty from 1960 to 1990 for rural counties; economic type for rural counties; percent group quarters residents in 1990; whether the county had households in the CPS sample; and percent change from 1980 to 1990 in the proportion of poor school-age children.2 Tables D-1 and D2 show the number of counties in each category.
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From page 135... ...
The additional detail in Tables D-1 and D-2 is presented without commentary. 3The estimates from the four candidate models and the models considered in the first round of evaluations, listed below, are the final estimates for all counties, after the initial estimates from the county regression model are combined in a "shrinkage procedure" with direct CPS estimates for those counties with households in the CPS sample and raked for consistency with the estimates from the state model; see Chapter 2.
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From page 136... ...
(d) Census Divisionb New England 67 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9 Middle Atlantic 150 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 East North Central 437 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 West North Central 618 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 South Atlantic 591 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 East South Central 364 -4.5 -4.5 -4.5 -4.5 West South Central 470 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 Mountain 281 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 Pacific 163 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 Metropolitan Status Central county of metropolitan area 493 2.4 1.6 -0.1 -0.5 Other metropolitan 254 -6.6 -5.0 5.1 6.3 Nonmetropolitan 2394 -4.2 -2.8 -0.3 0.4 1990 Population Size under 7,500 525 -9.0 -2.3 -1.9 2.3 7,500- 14,999 630 -4.4 0.5 2.5 5.5 15,000-24,999 524 -5.1 -2.6 0.3 1.9 25,000-49,999 620 -4.2 -2.9 0.6 1.3 50,000-99,999 384 -3.5 -5.1 -1.2 -2.3 100,000-249,999 259 -1.8 -4.4 -1.8 -3.5 250,000 or more 199 3.3 3.2 0.5 0.5 1980 to 1990 Population Growth Decrease of more than 10.0% 444 -1.9 0.6 -3.4 -1.9 Decrease 0.1- 10.0% 972 -0.6 -0.5 -1.9 -1.8 0.0-4.9% 547 -2.8 -2.8 -3.2 -3.1 5.0- 14.9% 620 0.0 -1.0 0.2 -0.6 15.0-24.9% 260 7.7 5.8 5.5 4.6 25.0% or more 292 -4.0 -1.4 1.7 3.1
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APPENDIX D: MODEL COMPARISONS WITH CENSUS ESTIMATES 137 Other Procedures Stable Shares Stable Ra es Average of in State in State Shares (ii)
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From page 138... ...
(d) Percent Poor School Age Children, 1980 Less than 9.4% 516 -4.0 -4.5 0.0 0.2 9.4- 11.6% 524 -0.5 -1.0 -1.6 -1.8 11.7-14.1% 530 3.6 2.3 1.8 1.0 14.2- 17.2% 523 0.9 1.2 -1.2 -1.4 17.3-22.3% 519 1.8 1.7 0.3 -0.1 22.4-53.0% 523 -2.2 0.8 1.3 2.8 Percent Hispanic, 1990 0.0-0.9% 1770 -3.4 -3.3 -1.6 -1.5 1.0-4.9% 847 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.1 5.0-9.9% 193 -1.4 -0.6 -1.1 -0.8 10.0-24.9% 181 2.2 1.8 0.7 0.5 25.0-98.0% 150 3.9 4.6 2.2 2.7 Percent Black, 1990 0.0-0.9% 1446 -1.2 0.3 3.9 4.9 1.0-4.9% 615 -0.7 -2.0 1.3 0.5 5.0-9.9% 294 -2.9 -2.5 -0.7 -0.6 10.0-24.9% 381 2.0 1.2 -1.0 -1.3 25.0-87.0% 405 1.0 1.7 -1.8 -1.4 Persistent Rural Poverty, 1960- 1990C Rural, not poor 1740 -4.0 -3.7 -1.2 -1.0 Rural, poor 535 -5.0 -2.1 0.7 2.1 Not classified 866 1.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 Economic Type, Rural CountiesC Farming 556 -5.5 -2.5 -1.6 0.7 Mining 146 -10.7 -5.1 -6.3 -3.6 Manufacturing 506 -6.2 -5.9 -1.7 -1.0 Government 243 2.1 -1.3 6.3 3.2 Services 323 -3.9 -3.0 -1.8 -1.2 Nonspecialized 484 -3.7 -1.0 -0.1 1.4 Not classified 883 1.7 1.2 0.3 0.0
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APPENDIX D: MODEL COMPARISONS WITH CENSUS ESTIMATES 139 Other Procedures Stable Stable SharesStable RatesAverage of Shares in Statein StateCensus and (a)
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From page 140... ...
(d) Percent Group Quarters Residents, 1990 Less than 1.0% 545 -6.7 -2.7 2.0 4.7 1.0-4.9% 2187 0.3 0.7 -0.3 0.1 5.0-9.9% 299 2.3 -4.4 0.5 -5.2 10.0-41.0% 110 14.2 -3.2 7.4 -7.5 Status in CPS, 1989- 1991 In CPS sample 1028 1.4 1.0 -0.2 -0.5 In CPS, no poor children 5-17 246 -2.6 -1.9 7.3 7.8 Not in CPS sample 1867 -4.1 -2.8 -0.1 0.6 Change in Poverty Rate for School-Age Children, 1980- 1990 Decrease of more than 3.0% 536 7.5 10.4 16.2 18.1 Decrease 0.1-3.0% 649 2.1 1.9 3.1 2.9 0.0-0.9% 272 -2.6 -0.8 -0.4 0.5 1.0-3.4% 621 3.8 2.2 3.4 2.6 3.5-6.4% 532 -1.2 -2.4 -3.8 -4.3 6.5-38.0% 523 -7.2 -5.2 -8.7 -7.8 NOTES: The census estimates are controlled to the CPS national estimate for 1989.
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-1.4 -0.93.7 0.3 -0.4 0.3-0.1 0.1 7.8 -1.4-2.8 -0.8 1.8 -0.9-1.4 -2.2 -0.6 -0.7-0.4 0.5 10.0 3.712.0 5.9 0.6 2.3-0.3 -2.3 5 1.6 30.132.8 30.0 29.2 8.09.8 12.1 4.3 -0.93.3 3.1 -5. 1 3.73.4 0.2 -14.3 -7.7-9.5 -8.3 -25.2 -14.2-16.5 -14.5 bCensus division states: New England: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut Middle Atlantic: New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania East North Central: Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin West North Central: Missouri, Minnesota, Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas South Atlantic: Delaware, Maryland, District of Columbia, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida East South Central: Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi West South Central: Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas Mountain: Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Nevada Pacific: Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska, Hawaii CThe Economic Research Service, U.S.
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From page 142... ...
(d) Census Division New England 67 4.1 4.5 6.67.1 Middle Atlantic 150 -5.9 -8.4 0.7-1.0 East North Central 437 -3.6 -3.0 2.53.0 West North Central 618 -3.1 -0.6 0.52.3 South Atlantic 591 1.2 2.5 8.99.8 East South Central 364 -4.6 -3.0 0.51.3 West South Central 470 -7.6 -4.6 -4.0-2.3 Mountain 281 0.6 5.4 7.210.4 Pacific 163 10.2 13.6 17.820.2 Metropolitan Status Central county of metropolitan area 493 0.6 -2.0 1.0-0.6 Other metropolitan 254 -3.6 -0.8 11.613.7 Nonmetropolitan 2394 -2.6 0.2 2.94.7 1990 Population Size under 7,500 525 -5.9 1.6 2.67.6 7,500- 14,999 630 -1.0 3.0 5.78.4 15,000-24,999 524 -3.2 -1.8 2.13.2 25,000-49,999 620 -1.5 -0.7 4.24.6 50,000-99,999 384 -1.4 -3.3 2.51.2 100,000-249,999 259 -0.7 -3.4 1.5-0.3 250,000 or more 199 1.0 0.4 1.31.1 1980 to 1990 Population Growth Decrease of more than 10.0% 444 -5.2 -1.0 -1.22.0 Decrease 0.1-10.0% 972 -3.3 -2.2 0.10.9 0.0-4.9% 547 -1.3 0.4 4.05.0 5.0- 14.9% 620 -0.7 0.0 4.75.0 15.0-24.9% 260 4.0 3.8 10.610.1 25.0% or more 292 -4.1 2.3 9.814.0
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APPENDIX D: MODEL COMPARISONS WITH CENSUS ESTIMATES 143 Other Procedures Stable Stable Shares Stable Rates Average of Shares in State in State Census and (a)
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(d) Percent Poor Schoo Age Children, 1980 Less than 9.4% 516 -4.1-3.0 3.7 5.2 9.4- 11.6% 524 -1.7-0.2 2.4 3.6 11.7- 14.1 % 530 -2.0-1.2 1.4 2.0 14.2- 17.2% 523 -0.30.8 3.9 4.7 17.3-22.3% 519 -2.6-1.2 1.9 2.6 22.4-53.0% 523 -2.33.2 6.3 9.3 Percent Hispanic, 1990 0.0-0.9% 1770 -3.2-1.4 2.6 3.9 1.0-4.9% 847 1.03.1 7.1 8.3 5.0-9.9% 193 -0.60.7 2.2 3.3 10.0-24.9% 181 -5.7-3.0 -2.9 -1.2 25.0-98.0% 150 -6.2-3.3 -2.2 -0.3 Percent Black, l99G 0.0-0.9% 1446 -2.41.4 4.0 6.7 1.0-4.9% 615 -1.4-2.1 3.1 2.4 5.0-9.9% 294 -2.4-2.4 2.6 2.6 10.0-24.9% 381 -0.70.6 4.7 5.4 25.0-87.0% 405 -3.8-2.7 0.0 0.9 Persistent Rural Poverty, 1960- 1990 Rural, not poor 1740 -2.60.0 2.3 4.1 Rural, poor 535 -3.70.3 3.5 5.5 Not classified 866 -0.4-1.1 5.2 4.8 .
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APPENDIX D: MODEL COMPARISONS WITH CENSUS ESTIMATES 145 Other Procedures Stable Shares Stable Ra es Average of in State in State Shares (ii)
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with fixed state effects; (D.4) log rate model (under 21)
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For the first round of evaluations the census estimates were not ratio-adjusted to make the census national estimate of poor school-age children in 1989 equal to the corresponding CPS total for 1989, unlike the situation with the evaluations of the candidate models and other procedures described above. Thus, the results of the first round of evaluations given in Tables D-3 to D-5 cannot be directly compared with those for the later round.
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From page 148... ...
between model estimates and 1990 census estimates of the number of poor school-age children in 1989 for the six single-equation models, D.1-D.6, that were included in the first round of county model evaluations. It also shows the two absolute difference measures for
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From page 149... ...
. The use of 1990 population estimates instead of 1990 census figures to convert estimated proportions from the three rate models to estimated numbers increases the average absolute difference in the estimated number of poor school-age children by 8-10 percent and increases the average proportional absolute difference by about 6 percent for the log rate and rate models and 12 percent for the hybrid log rate-number model.
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, indicating that the overprediction is more pronounced for smaller counties than larger counties in that geographic area.6 Further investigation is required to determine the reasons for the variations across divisions, which could include sampling variability in the CPS for 1989 or a specification problem in the state model (see Chapter 4~. Metropolitan Status The category differences and proportional category differences in the predicted number of poor school-age children vary somewhat for counties categorized by metropolitan status.
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From page 151... ...
The variations in the proportional category differences for counties characterized by percent Hispanic population are statistically significant for all models with this pattern that were tested. The differences in the patterns for the two measures may occur because the models behave differently for small counties with many Hispanics (primarily rural border counties)
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From page 152... ...
This pattern, which appears for both category difference measures, is statistically significant for the proportional category difference measure (Table D-5. Economic Type, Rural Counties The category differences and proportional category differences in the predicted number of poor school-age children vary for all models for rural counties categorized by their principal economic activity.
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Summary of Category Differences Three of the eleven characteristics examined show no pronounced patterns of overprediction or underprediction of the number of poor school-age children for any of the models: percent poor school-age children from the 1980 census; percent black population in 1990; and persistent rural poverty from 1960 to 1990. Four characteristics show patterns for all or all but one model in which some categories of counties are over~under~predicted relative to other counties: 1- · .
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154 SMAL L-ARE4 ESTIMATES OF SCHOOL-AGE CHILDREN IN POVERTY TABLE D-4 Comparison of First-Round Model Estimates with 1990 Census County Estimates of the Number of Poor School-Age Children in 1989: Algebraic Difference by Category of County (in percent) Model Log Number Log Number Log NumberUnder 21, Fixed Under 21 Under 18State Effects Category D.1 D.2D.3 Census Divisiona New England 1.9 1.91.9 Middle Atlantic 2.0 2.02.0 East North Central 4.7 4.74.7 West North Central 6.8 6.86.8 South Atlantic 5.5 5.55.5 East South Central 0.3 0.30.3 West South Central 2.1 2.12.1 Mountain 9.4 9.49.4 Pacific 11.8 11.811.8 Metropolitan Status Central county of metropolitan area 7.4 6.76.6 Other metropolitan -2.0 -0.3-3.9 Nonmetropolitan 0.5 2.02.8 1990 Population Size under 7,500 -4.5 2.54.7 7,500- 14,999 0.4 5.56.0 15,000-24,999 -0.4 2.32.8 25,000-49,999 0.5 1.81.9 50,000-99,999 1.2 -0.4-0.1 100,000-249,999 3.1 0.41.1 250,000 or more 8.4 8.37.9 1980 to 1990 Population Growth Decrease of more than 10.0% 3.0 5.69.0 Decrease 0.1-10.0% 4.3 4.45.9 0.0-4.9% 2.0 2.02.5 5.0-14.9% 5.0 3.83.8 15.0-24.9% 13.1 11.110.9 25.0% or more 0.7 3.5-0.5
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APPENDIX D: MODEL COMPARISONS WITH CENSUS ESTIMATES 155 Log Rate Rate Log Hybrid Rate Under 21 Under 21 Number Under 21 D.4 D.4a D.5 D.5a D.6D.6a 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.91.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.02.0 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.74.7 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.86.8 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.55.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.30.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.12.1 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.49.4 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.811.8 4.8 4.5 4.8 4.5 7.77.4 10.2 7.5 9.7 7.0 2.5-0. 1 4.6 5.8 4.6 5.8 -0.90.2 3.0 4.4 5.6 7.2 -6.6-5.3 7.6 8.6 7.7 8.7 -0.90.0 5.3 6.4 5.2 6.3 -1.5-0.4 5.6 6.1 5.5 6.0 0.30.7 3.6 3.9 3.8 4.0 0.30.6 3.0 3.1 1.7 1.8 2.12.2 5.5 5.0 5.7 5.3 9.28.8 1.3 1.9 2.4 3.0 2.43.0 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.94.0 1.6 2.3 1.2 1.9 1.32.0 5.2 5.1 5.6 5.6 4.24.2 10.7 9.9 10.9 10.0 12.61 1.7 6.7 6.6 5.8 5.6 4.13.9 continued on next page
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156 TABLE D-4 Continued SMALL-AREA ESTIMATES OF SCHOOL-AGE CHILDREN IN POVERTY Model Log Number Log Number Log Number Under 21, Fixed Under 21 Under 18 State Effects Category D 1 D.2 D.3 Percent Poor School Age Children, 1980 Less than 9.4% 0.8 0.2 -1.0 9.4-11.6% 4~4 3~9 3 3 11.7-14.1% 8.8 7.3 7.0 14.2- 17.2% 5.8 6.2 5.2 17.3-22.3% 6.8 6.7 8.5 22.4-53.0% 2.6 5.7 7.7 Percent Hispanic, 1990 0.0-0.9% 1.4 1.4 2.3 1.0-4.9% 5.5 5.0 4.7 5.0-9.9% 3.5 4.3 3.3 10.0-24.9% 7.3 6.8 7.4 25.0-98.0% 9.0 9.8 8.5 Percent Black, 1990 0.0-0.9% 3.6 5.2 5.3 1.0-4.9% 4.2 2.8 2.9 5.0-9.9% 1.9 2.4 1.5 10.0-24.9% 7.0 6.2 5.7 25.0-87.0% 6.0 6.7 7.9 Persistent Rural Poverty, 1960-l99ob Rural, not poor Rural, poor Not classified 0.8 1.0 1.4 -0.3 2.7 5.2 6.7 6.2 5.8 Economic Type, Rural Countiesb Farming -0.8 2.4 7.0 Mining -6.3 -0.4 -4.0 Manufacturing -1.6 -1.2 0.4 Government 7.2 3.6 8.7 Services 0.8 1.8 1.1 Nonspecialized 1.0 3.9 3.4 Not classified 6.7 6.2 5.8
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APPENDIX D: MODEL COMPARISONS WITH CENSUS ESTIMATES 157 Log Rate Rate Log Hybrid Rate Under 21 Under 21 Number Under 21 D.4 D.4a D.5 D.5a D.6 D.6a 4.9 3.2 6.8 3.7 5.3 6.3 3.3 5.4 3.8 5.7 7.2 9.0 6.3 4.2 3.9 3.1 1.7 3.0 6.9 6.7 5.8 6.8 3.1 5.1 3.4 5.1 8.9 9.1 5.6 3.6 3.8 4.2 5.6 4.4 6.2 2.8 4.4 6.2 3.1 5.1 5.0 7.2 5.9 8.6 6.9 4.1 3.9 2.9 2.3 4.2 6.4 5.7 4.8 6.7 3.0 4.8 4.7 6.4 7.7 8.7 6.1 3.6 3.8 5.6 5.6 7.5 2.7 5.0 2.1 1.6 5.6 4.4 8.2 6.9 4.8 4.3 2.3 5.3 7.6 5.7 5.6 2.7 1.4 5.3 3.9 7.6 8.6 4.3 4.3 4.0 3.6 6.3 6.5 4.2 5.5 3.6 5.4 3.6 5.3 -1.1 0.5 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.8 -1.4 -1.2 4.8 5.2 4.8 7.2 6.9 3.3 5.2 5.0 6.9 -3.9 -2.
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aCensus division states: New England: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut Middle Atlantic: New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania East North Central: Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin West North Central: Missouri, Minnesota, Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas
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From page 159... ...
Department of Agriculture, classifies rural counties by 1960-1990 poverty status and economic type. Counties not classified are urban counties and rural counties for which a classification could not be made.
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160 SMAL L-ARE4 ESTIMATES OF SCHOOL-AGE CHILDREN IN POVERTY TABLE D-5 Comparison of First-Round Model Estimates with 1990 Census County Estimates of the Number of Poor School-Age Children in 1989: Average Proportional Algebraic Difference for Counties in Each Category (in percent) Model Log Number Log Number Log Number Under 21, Fixed Under 21 Under 18 State Effects Category D.1 D.2 D.3 Census Division New England 9.3 9.7 8.1 Middle Atlantic -1.2 -3.9 -3.5 East North Central 1.2 1.8 2.2 West North Central 1.7 4.4 7.4 South Atlantic 6.2 7.6 8.1 East South Central 0.1 1.8 0.9 West South Central -3.0 0.1 0.2 Mountain 5.6 10.6 12.2 Pacific 15.6 19.2 19.2 Metropolitan Status Central county of metropolitan area 5.6 2.9 3.5 Other metropolitan 1.1 4.1 -0.1 Nonmetropolitan 2.2 5.1 6.5 1990 Population Size under 7,500 -1.3 6.6 9.9 7,500- 14,999 3.9 8.1 9.3 15,000-24,999 1.6 3.0 4.2 25,000-49,999 3.4 4.2 3.7 50,000-99,999 3.4 1.5 1.0 100,000-249,999 4.2 1.4 1.4 250,000 or more 5.9 5.4 5.0 1980 to 1990 Population Growth Decrease of more than 10.0% -0.5 3.9 10.5 Decrease 0.1-10.0% 1.5 2.6 5.5 0.0-4.9% 3.6 5.3 5.1 5.0- 14.9% 4.2 4.9 4.1 15.0-24.9% 9.2 9.0 7.5 25.0% or more 0.7 7.3 -0.3
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APPENDIX D: MODEL COMPARISONS WITH CENSUS ESTIMATES 16 Log Rate Rate Log Hybrid Rate Under 21 Under 21 Number Under 21 D.4D.4a D.5 D.5a D.6D.6a 11.913.1 10.9 12.2 8.39.4 5.74.1 4.2 2.8 -1.2-2.6 7.58.5 6.4 7.4 -0.10.7 5.47.3 6.1 8.0 -0.21.6 14.312.6 14.5 12.8 7.76.1 5.44.8 5.3 4.6 0.70.0 0.73.3 1.8 4.3 -6.7-4.4 12.514.6 17.0 19.3 3.95.7 23.723.8 25.6 25.8 15.615.7 6.04.9 5.0 4.0 6.14.9 17.113.3 16.1 12.4 6.83.4 7.99.4 9.0 10.5 0.31.6 7.79.2 12.7 14.2 -3.5-2.3 10.912.3 11.5 12.8 2.23.4 7.28.2 6.9 8.0 0.11.1 9.310.1 8.8 9.6 2.83.5 7.57.3 7.3 7.0 3.12.8 6.66.0 3.3 2.9 4.03.4 6.34.4 7.3 5.5 8.76.9 3.73.9 7.9 8.0 -1.7-1.5 5.06.4 5.4 6.8 -0.70.6 9.29.9 8.2 8.9 2.73.4 9.910.2 9.6 10.0 3.43.6 16.015.6 15.6 15.2 8.07.6 15.215.7 16.2 16.9 3.94.1 continued on next page
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162 TABLE D-5 Continued SMALL-AREA ESTIMATES OF SCHOOL-AGE CHILDREN IN POVERTY Model Log Number Log Number Log Number Under 21, Fixed Under 21 Under 18 State Effects CategoryD.1 D.2 D.3 Percent Poor School Age Children, 1980 Less than 9.4%0.6 1.8 -1.3 9.4- 11.6%3.2 4.8 3.5 11.7- 14.1 %2.9 3.6 4.3 14.2-17.2%4.6 5.8 8.1 17.3-22.3%2.2 3.7 6.9 22.4-53.0%2.5 8.3 11.2 Percent Hispanic, 1990 0.0-0.9%1.6 3.5 5.1 1.0-4.9%6.0 8.2 6.7 5.0-9.9%4.3 5.7 6.4 10.0-24.9%-1.1 1.8 3.1 25.0-98.0%-1.5 1.5 4.7 Percent Black, 1990 0.0-0.9%2.4 6.5 7.3 1.0-4.9%3.5 2.8 3.5 5.0-9.9%2.4 2.4 1.8 10.0-24.9%4.2 5.6 4.5 25.0-87.0%0.9 2.1 5.6 Persistent Rural Poverty, 1960- 1990 Rural, not poor2.2 4.9 6.1 Rural, poor1.0 5.3 7.7 Not classified4.5 3.8 2.9 Economic Type, Rural Counties Farming-0.5 5.3 9.9 Mining-4.1 3.7 0.7 Manufacturing1.0 2.7 3.5 Government11.0 10.3 13.2 Services2.7 4.5 4.3 Nonspecialized2.0 4.9 4.8 Not classified4.8 4.1 3.3
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From page 163... ...
APPENDIX D: MODEL COMPARISONS WITH CENSUS ESTIMATES 163 Log Rate Rate Log Hybrid Rate Under 21 Under 21 Number Under 21 D.4 D.4a D.5 D.5a D.6D.6a 8.9 7.5 7.2 5.93.82.5 7.5 9.0 8.5 10.22.33.7 6.4 7.7 7.3 8.60.92.2 9.1 11.1 10.2 12.31.43.2 7.0 8.1 7.5 8.6-0.60.4 1 1.5 10.6 13.0 1 1.02.41.5 7.7 7.6 8.4 8.21.51.4 12.4 12.9 12.1 12.75.66.1 7.2 10.0 9.3 12.40.63.0 1.9 5.4 3.3 6.9-6.0-2.9 2.6 7.4 3.8 8.7-7.7-3.5 9.2 10.4 10.4 1 1.71.52.6 8.2 8.7 8.0 8.72.02.4 7.7 6.6 7.9 6.93.12.1 9.9 9.8 9.0 9.03.93.7 5.0 5.4 5.9 6.2-1.0-0.5 7.3 9.4 8.7 10.80.11.9 8.6 8.3 8.4 8.10.0-0.2 10.3 8.7 9.7 8.26.04.5 5.3 7.6 9.3 1 1.6-3.5-1.3 3.1 8.6 4.5 10.3-6.7-2.0 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.41.21.1 17.3 17.2 15.0 14.87.27.0 6.6 8.2 7.9 9.60.82.3 7.0 8.7 6.9 8.60.32.0 10.6 9.0 10.1 8.66.34.8 continued on next page
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From page 164... ...
164 TABLE D-5 Continued SMALL-AREA ESTIMATES OF SCHOOL-AGE CHILDREN IN POVERTY Model Log Number Log Number Log Number Under 21, Fixed Under 21 Under 18 State Effects Category D 1 D.2 D.3 Percent Group Quarters Residents, 1990 Less than 1.0% -1.1 7.5 3.8 1.0-4.9% 1.7 4.3 5.0 5.0-9.9% 10.4 4.3 9.5 10.0-41.0% 19.4 -0.3 12.4 Status in CPS, 1989-1991 In CPS sample In CPS, no poor children 5-17 Not in CPS sample 4.0 3.6 3.6 6.0 3.1 1.8 5.1 6.7 3.9 NOTE: See notes to Table D-4.
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From page 165... ...
APPENDIX D: MODEL COMPARISONS WITH CENSUS ESTIMATES 165 Log Rate Rate Log Hybrid Rate Under 21 Under 21 Number Under 21 D.4 D.4a D.5 D.5a D.6 D.6a 11.3 10.7 13.7 13.2 1.8 1.1 6.7 7.4 7.4 8.1 1.5 2.1 1 1.9 14.2 1 1.3 13.5 3.3 5.3 17.0 19.0 9.9 1 1.8 2.0 3.8 7.0 6.6 8.9 8.6 4.3 3.9 15.4 13.9 4.6 3.5 5.8 4.5 8.2 9.7 9.5 1 1.0 -0.3 1.1
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