Assessment of Future Scientific Needs for Live Variola Virus (1999) / Chapter Skim
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4 Epidemiology
4 Epidemiology
Pages 33-36
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From page 33... ...
A population with at least 200,000 susceptible individuals is required to support endemic smallpox. CHARACTERISTICS OF HISTORICAL OUTBREAKS All histories of smallpox record periods punctuated by major epidemics, which can be distinguished by two epidemiologically distinct situations.
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From page 34... ...
Even during winter and spring, when smallpox appeared to be more easily transmitted, an infectious patient seldom infected as many as five other persons. LIKELY CHARACTERISTICS OF FUTURE SMALLPOX OUTBREAKS Only three smallpox outbreaks that occurred during and following the eradication program were clearly identified as attributable to accidents at laboratories handling live variola virus.
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From page 35... ...
Rapidity of response would probably be of greater immediate concern than safety. Nevertheless, the considerable number of individuals immunocompromised as a result of the AIDS epidemic and increased organ transplant and chemotherapy procedures constitute a special risk since inoculating these individuals with the traditional live vaccinia vaccine is not acceptable (see also Chapter 71.
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