The Determinants of Brazil's Recent Rapid Decline in Fertility (1983) / Chapter Skim
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Despite these limitations, however, the available evidence provides strong support for the following hypotheses: (1) that declining marital fertility was the main demographic component of the accelerated decline; (2)
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2 10 9 8 _ 7 ~ U o \ \ 4 2 O ~ 950 \ \ Rural ~ Total I ~ Urban 1 . 1 t g60 1970 1980 YEAR FIGURE 1 Total Fertility Rates by Urban-Rural Residence, 1950-80: Brazil
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- rn Sew Min" Derail ~ Espinso A. Sanso Southem Sew Sso Paula ~ Rio de Janeiro 1 980 FIGURE 2 Total Fertility Rates by Region, l950-BO Brazil :
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Tabular and multiple regression analyses of these data provide strong support for the argument that increased educational attainment of women contributed to the modernization of reproductive behavior, though the data do not provide enough information to specify precisely how this occurred. Nor do they permit as full a testing as one would desire of hypotheses about the way in which institutional forces and structural factors arising from claBB differences and economic pressures influenced reproductive patterns.
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However, the task of establishing the links between these factors and patterns of individual reproductive behavior reported in the sample survey component of the NIHR is still to be completed. The major conclusions of the report are summarized below These contextual TEE PROXIMATE DETERMINANTS OF FERTILITY The available evidence indicates that changes in the distribution of women by marital status, either through changes in the mean age at marriage or through increases in the proportion of women remaining single, was not a major factor In Brazil's accelerated fertility decline dur ing the 1970s.
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DETERMINANTS OF FE UTILITY DECLINE Brazil's accelerated fertility decline coincided with a period during which lower- and middle-income urban households were raising their consumption expectations. They were also beginning to realize these expectations through increased purchases of housing and other consumer durables, including televisions and automobiles, with most purchases made on the installment plan.
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While income was an important covariate of contraceptive use, survey evidence suggests that lower income women are also controlling fertility, particularly in the higher income southern region and in states that have established community-based family planning programs (see Figure 4)
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At Cal or Al 15 n ,. Rio Grande do Norte, 1980 Paula, 1978 j/ Bahia, 1980 1_ ~ .1 < 1 ~ to Pernambuco, Paula 1980 Pioui, 1979 · Pernambu · Bahia · Pisui 1-2 24 5+ TOTA L MULTIPLES Of MINIMUM SALARY FIGURE 4 Percent of Married Women Aged 15-44, Currently Using Cor2traception, by Household Income for Specified Years: Brazil not compete with more conventional explanations of fertility decline as part of the process of modernization, but is an extension incorporating other structural changes.
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In other words, did declines in average parity reflect changes in the composition of the population of married women according to modernizing characteristics, or changes in the parameters reflecting the impact of these variables on parity? The latter are likely to reflect structural changes; one of the goals of the analysis was to incorporate variables in the specif ication for which such changes would be indicative of the specific structural forces hypothesized above, that is, increased economic pressures on household resources.
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Measures that were available In the census and survey data file provide little insight into the nature of such changes -- whether they were related to increased access to contraception through public or private channels, or to institutional changes associated with shifts in the Brazilian model of social and economic development. The nine local studies of the NIBR examined in Part lI cover a range of economic and social contexts, including Sao Jose dos Campos's (Sao Paulo State)
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This can in turn be related at the local level to shif ts in family income: as in Part I, it is concluded that there is a positive association between higher family income and decreased family size.
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