The Determinants of Brazil's Recent Rapid Decline in Fertility (1983) / Chapter Skim
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Introduction
Introduction
Pages 12-28
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From page 12... ...
The population in 1980 was 120 million, more than double the 1950 total of 52 million. Starting in the late nineteenth century, Brazil experienced population growth rates in excess of 2 percent per annual with a peak period of nearly 3 percent during the 1950s.
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From page 13... ...
Although it occupies only 11 percent of Brazil's land area, it includes the major urban-industrial centers, including Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo, and Belo Morizonte. This region dominates Brazil economically in all sectors, including agriculture; per capita income is half again as large as the national average.
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From page 14... ...
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These immigrants were able to secure better living conditions and a share of coffee profits; in fact, upwardly mobile immigrants and their offspring emerged as the urban industrial and entrepreneurial classes during Sao Paulo's industrialization in the twentieth century.
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From page 16... ...
Brazil was more successful than many developing countries in establishing domestic manufacturing; it had achieved relative independence in nondurable goods even before World War II, and moved rapidly toward autonomy in durables and capital goods thereat ter . lIoweYer, the success of import substitution also brought problems: increased regional inequality because of the concentration of industrial activity in the Southeast; limited labor absorption because of the comparative capital intensity of imported manufacturing processes; increased dependence on foreign capital and petroleum (which Brazil has to import)
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From page 17... ...
During the late 1960s, a combination of hard-handed military rule and civilian technical expertise restored stability to the Brazilian economy, with annual growth of industrial output exceeding 10 percent. One price for this stabilization program was deterioration of ache earning power of lower-income groups; another was increased foreign debt.
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From page 18... ...
Cultural and ethnic divers ity, an important dimension of the Brazilian social structure, has proved difficult to measure in standard ~ tatistics O Complex patterns of interracial Barr iage and self-declaration of race in four categor ies (white, black, yellow, and mixed) in Brazilian censuses led to such skepticism about the validity of the data that the ques tion was abandoned in 1970.
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From page 19... ...
Both the level and timing of such regional dif ferentials can be clar if fed by more ref ined measures of fertility and mortality, the total fertility rate, and the expectation of life at birth . The main sources of national- and regional-level data on fertility and mortality rates in Brazil are the decennial censuses and the national sample surrey program (Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicilios -- PNAD)
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From page 20... ...
At the national level, total fertility was nearly constant prior to 1960, and declined by about 6 percent dur ing the 1960s. There was a marked acceleration in fertility decline during the 1970-76 interval, when total fertility fell by 24 percent, although the indirect measures make it difficult to determine when the acceleration actually started.
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From page 21... ...
At the same tome, the Northeast-Southeast differential increased. Since rates of decline in the Southeastern states have reached comparatively low levels, continuation of the national trend will depend to a large extent on the pace at which Northeastern states catch upe Estimates based on preliminary tabulations of the 1980 census indicate that the trend observed for the 1970076 period continued during 1976-80, though at a slower pace.
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From page 22... ...
There are also important regional differentials, with the Northeast lagging behind the rest of the country by about 10 years of life expectancy; using the ratio of Sao Paulo to the Northeast as an index, the relative dif ference was about 27 percent. While all regions experienced increased
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From page 23... ...
The pattern of rural-urban differentials shifted from a slight advantage for rural areas in 1950 to a slight advantage for urban areas in 1970, and a widening spread between urban and rural areas between 1970 and 1976. Income Class Differences in Fertility and Mortality Socioeconomic differences in fertility and mortality are another important dimension of recent Brazilian demographic trends, though there are fewer data with which to document them.
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From page 24... ...
Their data also reveal rural-urban and regional differentials within income classes: rural-urban differences increase with income, from less than one child to nearly tree children; in contrast, regional differences narrow fusing the Central Northeast and Sao Paulo as illustrative cases) from 2.6 to 1.1 children.
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From page 25... ...
Both sets of differentials highlight the importance of underlying socioeconomic variables in the regional differentials observed during the 1950-70 period; attention to changes in these variables will therefore be important in explaining the acceleration in Brazil's fertility decline after 1970. PURPOSE AND STRUCTURE OF THIS REPORT What changes could account for the accelerated fertility decline in Brazil since 1970?
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From page 26... ...
Chapter 1 uses national census and survey data on fertility and nuptiality, together with CPS state-level data on contraception, abortion, and breastfeeding, to decompose recant fertility declines into the proximate determinants of fertility; this analysis is based on the standardization approach to decomposition of changes an the national level. In Chapter 2, national data are used to identify the level and amount of change in socio economic fertility differentials from 1970 to 1976.
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From page 27... ...
It is hoped that together, the broader and more focused perspectives offered in this report will provide a balanced understanding of Brazil's recent fertility trends.
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