Criminal Careers and "Career Criminals," Volume I (1986) / Chapter Skim
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6. Use of Criminal Career Information in Criminal Justice Decision Making
6. Use of Criminal Career Information in Criminal Justice Decision Making
Pages 155-197
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From page 155... ...
The dimensions of criminal careers cannot be measurer! directly, but decision makers often attempt to draw inferences about them from observable characteristics such as prior record, age, employment status, or drug clependency.
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From page 156... ...
In this chapter we summarized the CRIMINAL CAREERS AND CAREER CRIMINALS examine ways in which criminal career information is used, both formally and informally, in decision making and the means by which better information might be provided to facilitate those uses. We first examine the various ways in which criminal career information is combined with other considerations in decisions at each stage of criminal processing.
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From page 157... ...
Chanters 2, 3, ant! 4 highlight the relevance of the instant offense, records of the prior adult and juvenile criminal activity, drug use, and employment history as indicators of more serious criminal careers; this chapter emphasizes the role of those factors in criminal justice decision making.2 iWith respect to research on decisions on arrest, see, for example, Piliavin and Briar (1964)
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From page 158... ...
Bowers, 19851. CRIMINAL CAREERS AND CAREER CRIMINALS Prosecution The extent to which prosecution practices successfully target offenders with serious criminal careers is related to how much prosecution efforts are focused on such offenders and whether such efforts result in higher conviction rates or longer sentences.
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From page 159... ...
to serious criminal careers, such as drug use and employment status, and the evidence is not consistent.4 Career Criminal Unit Evaluations Career Criminal Units were established in more than 100 prosecutors' offices during the 1970s. Their caseloads were generally restricted by case selection criteria that were left to the discretion of the local jurisdictions.
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From page 160... ...
Had they evaluated other jurisdictions whose regular units were under a greater press of caseloads, Chelimsky and Dahmann might have found more substantial effects of CCUs on case outcomes. Results of CCU evaluations should be treated carefully because of two common methodological problems in the research CRIMINAL CAREERS AND CAREER CRIMINALS to date.
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From page 161... ...
. Two other variables related to serious criminal careers~rug use and employment status have been studied.
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From page 162... ...
Uncertainty concerning the influence of juvenile records on sentencing in the adult system makes clear the need for more careful comparisons of individual case decisions in a "two-track" system (in CRIMINAL CAREERS AND CAREER CRIMINALS which juvenile records are shielded from adult authorities) with decisions in a similar "one-track" system with shared information.
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From page 163... ...
A key question is whether these assessments do in fact leacI to more severe sanctions for offenders whose careers involve the most frequent and serious offending over the longest durations. A review of relevant research shows that seriousness of the current charge and prior adult record two factors closely re lated to serious criminal careers~omi nate the decision-making process.
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From page 164... ...
criminal justice resources. New limitations on the discretion of parole boards , ,, CRIMINAL CAREERS AND CAREER CRIMINALS have encouraged the consideration of future risk at earlier decision points, especially at sentencing.
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From page 165... ...
Predictive considerations have long played an implicit though informal role in criminal justice decision making. Explicit prediction-based classification rules have been widely used for several decades as a basis for structuring decisions framed in terms of reducing punishment, such as parole release and pretrial release; few ethical objections have been raised against those uses.
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From page 166... ...
CRIMINAL CAREERS AND CAREER CRIMINALS Relationship to the Criterion Variable. In gauging the admissibility of various defendant characteristics as bases for decisions, the classification variable should have theoretical and empirical relationships to the criterion variable.
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From page 167... ...
However, with respect to race and ethnicity, it is worth reiterating their general inappropriateness as predictor variables because they have no relationship to blameworthiness, there is no demonstrated theoretical or empirical basis for linking them to pertinent criterion variables, and their use affronts concern for equal protection. Developing Classification Rules Defining the Criterion Variable Predictions in criminal justice clecisions are usually concerned with avoiding some undesired behavior, such as crimes, parole violations, or failures to appear at trial.
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From page 168... ...
and of different values of ~ and ,u for different subsets of a sample (Carr-Hill and Carr-Hill, 1972; Greenberg, 1978; Harris, Kaylan, and CRIMINAL CAREERS AND CAREER CRIMINALS Maltz, 19811. By permitting heterogeneity in ,u and 6, these models could partition observed changes in estimates off during the follow-up period into effects due to early attrition of high-rate offenders (who are quickly rearrested and removed from the samples at risk soon after release)
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From page 169... ...
than floes a Burgess scale or any other weighted sum ofthe same predictor variables. However, even in construction samples, the improvements over the Burgess scales are small in actual practice (see discussion in Farrington and TarTing, 1985; see also D
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From page 170... ...
shows promise for reducing the shrinkage of predictive accuracy due to outliers. Special problems emerge when the correctly specified prediction equation gives a significant weight to one or more variables that have been rejected as ethically inadmissible for decision making CRIMINAL CAREERS AND CAREER CRIMINALS employed offenders)
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From page 171... ...
Uncler that rule, 27.2 percent of all offenders in the construction sample would be classified as high risk, a selection ratio of 27.2 percent. Under that rule, 54.7 percent of the inmates cIassifie(1 as high risk were truly low risk (i.e., low and medium A in Greenwood's terms)
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From page 172... ...
. example, would react to a Tower falsepositive rate, only 48.7 percent, but a higher false-negative rate, 23.4 percent.6 Regardless of the predictive power of the scale, the minimum number of errors is constrained by the relationship between the selection ratio and the base rate, the fraction of offenders who are truly high risk in terms of the criterion variable.
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From page 173... ...
The value of RIOC is zero for a classification rule that fails to improve on random accuracy and unity for a rule that achieves maximum accuracy given the current selection ratio and base rate. While RIOC does provide one more measure for assessing classification accuracy, it, like the total error rate, gives equal weight to false-positive and falsenegative errors.
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From page 174... ...
CRIMINAL CAREERS AND CAREER CRIMINALS part on the severity of sanctions to be imposer! on high-risk offenders and the gravity of the risk one is trying to prevent.
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From page 175... ...
Because the factors that influence incarceration and release decisions are also related to the behavior being predieted, this selective sampling creates the potential for selection bias, which must be addressed in the development of prediction-basec3 classification rules. Because of selection bias, both the predictor weights and the classification accuracy measures developed in a construction sample made up entirely of releasees or entirely of incarcerated inmates will be inappropriate for samples of convicted especially long arrest records.
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From page 176... ...
CRIMINAL CAREERS AND CAREER CRIMINALS For both reasons, periodic validation and recalibration of the prediction-based rule are integral parts of the implementation process. In validation, the accuracy of an existing prediction-based cIassification rule is measured in an entirely new sample.
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From page 177... ...
; from differences in the accuracy with which predictor variables are verified (for example, employment status as cletermined during a presentence investigation is likely to be more accurate than employment status determined immediately after arrest) ; or from crossjurisdictional differences in definitions of predictor variables (such as the characterization of previous charges anc!
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From page 178... ...
All these scales share a common concern for distinguishing offenders in terms CRIMINaL CAREERS AND CAREER CRIMINALS of criminal career attributes, and the scales are empirically derives! from observed statistical relationships between reaclily obtainable offender attributes and criminal career dimensions.
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From page 179... ...
worst-risk groups for various statistically based prediction devices intended! to assess the risk of recidivism for use in parole release deci · c> slons.o Furler examination of the scale's ac 8For example, in a 1976 validation of the Federal Parole Commission's Salient Factor Score, 44 percent of the "poor risks" (20.3 percent of the sample)
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From page 180... ...
But measures ofthe juvenile recorcl, drug use, and recent employment may be ques CRIMINAL CAREERS AND CAREER CRIMINALS tioned on grounds of blameworthiness. The controversy surrounding these variables may lead to their exclusion in implementing the classification scale.
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From page 181... ...
bOnly the variables relating to adult criminal record are included; juvenile record, drug use, and employment variables are excluded (see Table 6-21. defined base rate of 25 percent high-rate offenders.
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From page 183... ...
The SFS thus appears to discriminate most effectively between persisters and those who do not incur another arrest within 3 years (which includes mainly offenders who have terminated their criminal careers) and is less effective in distinguishing frequency rates for active offenders.
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From page 184... ...
Because of the widespread interest in the Iowa scale and concerns about its development and val CRIMINAL CAREERS AND CAREER CRIMINALS idation, the pane! asked that the Iowa risk assessment instrument be included in the review of the accuracy of classification scales it commissioned (see GottEredson and Gottirecison, Volume II)
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From page 185... ...
185 General Violence Risk Risk 2 3 1 ~ 2 1 1 o 4 2 1 o o s 3 O O 3 3 2 2 1 O O 6 6 3 5 1 O O 1 3 4 2 O O 7 5 4 4 3 4 2 O O Current Conviction for Violent Felony, or Escape/Jailbreak/Flight; Prior Yes Conviction for Felony Against Person in last 5 years of Street Time; Prior Violence Score 35+; Substance Abuse Score 7 None of Above Factors TOTAL SCORE X-Score = A + B + C Y-Score= D + E + F SOURCE: Fischer (19841.
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From page 186... ...
concluded that the MCR as calculated by the Iowa researchers is inflated compared win standard MCR measures reported for over scales and is "essentially meaningless." CRIMINAL CAREERS AND CAREER CRIMINALS types: 57 percent for high-rate California robbers but only 19 percent for Michigan burglars. These comparisons among different prediction instruments suggest that the latest Iowa classification system may be somewhat more accurate than other prediction devices.
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From page 187... ...
Relying on time to rearrest as the dependent variable, the INSLAW scale is intended to distinguish among offenders in terms of their frequency rates- which are reciprocally related to the time to rearrest. On the basis of a statistical mode} that fit time to rearrest to offender attributes, including prior record, 200 "career criminals" were iclentifiecI.
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From page 188... ...
Because some scale variables may be controversial e.g., substance abuse and reliance on past arrests rather than convictions- such analyses should include assessments of changes in accuracy under alternative scale formulations; in light of experience with other scales examined here, large CRIMINAL CAREERS AND CAREER CRIMINALS reductions in accuracy are not antici Summary Some recent classification scales relying on similar predictor variables reflecting primarily prior criminal record and drug use- have displayed greater accuracy in identifying worst-risk offenders than earlier scales. When criteria of rearrest in follow-up periods of at least 3 years are used, false-positive rates among offenders classified as worst-risks are under 30 percent in construction samples and under 40 percent in validation samples (see especially Rhodes et al., 1982; Fischer, 1984; and Janus, 1985 in Table 6-~.
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From page 189... ...
compares actual classification accuracy to the maximum accuracy possible and the random accuracy associated with the selection ratio and base rates in sample (see text)
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From page 190... ...
CRIMINAL CAREERS AND CAREER CRIMINALS ADULT, JWENILE, AND NON-JUSTICE SYSTEM RECORDS AND THEIR INTEGRATION Attention to certain offender characteristics whether achieved through formal rules or infollllal practice-can, to some extent, improve the accuracy of offender classification in terms of criminal career dimensions. Incorporating these cIassifications into decisions requires that decision makers receive timely and accurate information about predictor variables, and doing so will require improvements in criminal justice and other record keeping systems.
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From page 191... ...
measure of a criminal career than a conviction record because the former more fully reflects variations in the rate of activity, because a failure to convict is not necessarily indicative of factual innocence, and because plea bargaining can distort the meaning of convic 191 tion records. Conviction records are also vulnerable to distortions when their influence on decisions is altered: for example, when the number of prior convictions became an explicit basis for sentencing under guidelines introduced in Minnesota, prosecutors seemed less willing to dismiss charges than they previously had been (Minnesota Sentencing Guidelines Commission, 1984:811.
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From page 192... ...
Juvenile Records CRIMINAL CAREERS AND CAREER CRIMINALS these restrictions mean that the arrest histories available for formal adult proceeclings usually do not include records of juvenile contacts with police and, usually, court dispositions that occurred before the defendant reached legal adulthood. Police information is sometimes shared informally with prosecutors (for whom it may affect charging decisions)
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From page 193... ...
The prospect of having juvenile records purged after an arrest-free period is advocated as an incentive for juveniles to terminate criminal careers before adulthood. Others have argued that the ambiguity of notation that is characteristic of juvenile court records makes them very Circuit to interpret and summarize (e.g., Greenwood, Abrahamse, and Zimring, 19841.
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From page 194... ...
As highlighted in Chapter 3, particular problems have CRIMINAL CAREERS AND CAREER CRIMINALS been the misleading conclusion of clesistance-"false Resistance" from offending that is implied by the truncation of juvenfle court records when indivicluals "graduate" to a(lult jurisdiction ant! the inability to inclucle the record before age 18 in career-length estimates for adult samples.
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From page 195... ...
They should also be in foe of Because decision makers' predictions correlations between those characteris- about offenders' criminal careers are not tics and the frequency of serious offend ~ng. CONCLUSIONS Criminal justice decision makers use knowledge about criminal careers both in making specific decisions affecting indi vidual offenders and in establishing poli _ routinely recorded, it is impossible to measure directly the improvement that could be achieved by giving decision makers statistical predictions about the offenders who come before them.
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From page 196... ...
CRIMINAL CAREERS AND CAREER CRIMINALS Since prediction scales are potentially vulnerable to variation by jurisdiction, by stage of the criminal justice system, and over time, successful validation in several jurisdictions can increase confidence in scale transferability by identifying key variables that seem to have consistently high predictive value, by helping to refine data collection forms and variable definitions, and by developing initial candidate scales that can be adapted in any new setting. It is crucial, however, that every scale be tested, validated, and recalibrated at each decision stage and jurisdiction in which it is to be used.
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From page 197... ...
Records of juvenile adjudications are typically unavailable to the adult criminal justice system, presumably to avoid lifetime stigmatization as a result of some minor juvenile escapades. While that principle is certainly reasonable for individuals whose juvenile involvement 197 is indeed minor and especially for those who do not persist into an adult criminal career, the bifurcation floes not seem reasonable for juveniles whose delinquency careers are serious and who persist into serious adult offending.
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