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From page 451... ... definition, 20 estimates of, 34,59-61,338 factors that increase, 157-158,335 offense-specific estimates of, 59-60,332-333, 408-409 Arrest rates, see Individual arrest frequency Arrest records, see Official records, arrests Arrests, see Arrest probability (q) ; Criminal justice decision making, police decisions; Official records, arrests B Behavior modification, see Interventions; Rehabilitation Burglary, see Offenses, index; Offenses, property C Career criminal units, 159-160,186 Career criminals, see Offenders, serious 451 Career initiation definition, 20-22,32,213-215 probability by age, 13,22,41-42,253 Career length and incarceration, 15,26,85,92-93,126-128, 133-134 definition and characterization of, 13,18,20 dropout rate, 20,85-89 estimates of, 18,22,94-95,293 measures of biases in, 90-91 by age, 86-89 by number of arrests, 89-91 in years, 91-94 persistence probabilities, 86-91 recommendations for studies of, 206 residual, 18,20,92-95,126 Career modification behavioral interventions, 116-117 community-based and family treatment programs, 115-1 18 definition, lS-16, 109-110 employment programs, 120-122 individual and group counseling, 116,118 Job Corps, 120-121 optimal age for, 111 Outward Bound, 118 recommendations for studies of, 117-118,202204 strategies for, 15-16 substance abuse treatment programs, 118-120 training schools, 116 Read the entire page →
From page 452... ... 452 Career termination, 85-86; see also Career length Chaiken, J., and Chaiken, M., see Self-report studies, Rand inmate surveys Chronic offenders, see Offenders, serious Classification, see Offender classification, prediction-based Convictions, see Official-record studies Crime control policies and strategies use of criminal career knowledge for, 15-16, 24, 26, 88, 109-110, 366 use of parole, 135-139 use of selective incapacitation, 130-135 see also Career modification; Criminal justice decision making; Deterrence; Incapacitation; Incarceration; Prevention of criminal careers; Rehabilitation Crime rates, aggregate as measure of crime, 12-13 interpreting, 13, 22-24, 49, 213 reduction of, 123-124 see also Individual offending frequency; Participation in offending Crimes, see Offenses Criminal activity, see Participation in offending; Individual offending frequency Criminal careers definition and model of, 18-22, 24-26, 28-30 recommendations for research on, 10-11, 67, 198-209 sample designs for research on, 101-104 studies of, see Longitudinal studies; Official records; Self-reports see also Career initiation; Career length; Individual offending frequency; Offense seriousness; Participation in offending; Prevention of criminal careers Criminal justice decision making parole, 135, 162-163 police decisions, 157-158 pretrial release, 160-161 prosecution, 158-160 records useful to, 190-195 sentencing based on offender characteristics, 130-135; see also Offender classification, prediction-based charge-based policies, 139-141 determinants of, 161-162 use of criminal career information in, 6-7, 155-157, 163, 195-197 use of current offense, L29, 157, 161, 163 use of demographic correlates in, 94 Cross-sectional data, 33, 104-105; see also Selfreport studies D Dangerous offenders, see Offenders, serious INDEX Delinquency definition, 19 n.3 family influences on, 43 self-report studies of, 32 see also Participation in offending Desistance, false, 91; see also Career length Deterrence definition, 15, 28 evaluations of, 26, 28, 295-296 measurement of, 313 see also Career modification Differential association theory, 53 Duration of offending, see Career length E Elliott, D.S., see Self-report studies, National Youth Survey Employment/unemployment career modification programs based on, 120 122 in criminal justice decision making, 157-163 in prediction scales, 166, 180, 183, 186 individual offending frequency and, 75, 303 304, 348 participation in offending and, 13, 51-53, 286 289 pretrial release decisions based on, 161, 195 Ethical issues blameworthiness, 166 equal protection, 166-167 in prediction, 8, 17, 128-130, 156, 164-167, 171, 180, 195-197 in record-keeping, 190-195 in selective incapacitation, 129-130, 140 just deserts, 122, 129, 141, 165, 190 F False arrests, 14 n.l; see also Official records, errors and distortions in Farrington, D.F., see Longitudinal studies, Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development FBI Uniform Crime Report index offenses, see Offenses, index Felony, definition, 19 n.3 G Greenwood, P.W., see Offender classification, prediction-based Group offending and participation, 53 e�ect on incapacitation, 27, 123, 126, 135 recommendations for studies of, 205-206 H Habitual offender statutes, 128, 165 Habitual offenders, see Offenders, serious Hazard rate for initiation, 22, 41-42, 253 for career termination, 20, 85-89 see also Participation in offending Homicide, see Offenses, index Read the entire page →
From page 453... ... INDEX Imprisonment, see Incarceration Incapacitation charge-based, see Criminal justice decision making, sentencing, charge-based policies collective, 122-128, 142-143, 146-151 definition, 15, 110 estimates of effects, 133, 141-142 for crime control, 15, 26-27, 85 selective definition, 16-17 in parole decisions, 135-139 estimating effects of, 122-123, 131-135, 142154, 311-312 n.6 operational issues, 141-142 see also Ethical issues; Incarceration; Offender classification, prediction-based Incarceration criminogenic e�ects of, 28 estimates of effects of, 12~128, 302 inefficient use of, 15, 26, 92-93, 128 length and parole decisions, 162-163 see also Prison populations Incidence, definition, 17 n.2; see also Individual offending frequency Individual arrest frequency age-specific patterns in, 23-24, 330, 344-345 definition, 59-60, 295 measurement of, 59, 330, 335, 339, 346-347, 363 offense-specific estimates of, 57-59, 328-332, 334 race-specific patterns in, 25, 41, 330 relationship to individual offending frequency, 59-61, 98-100 sex-specific differences in, 24, 25 sources of estimates, 55-57; see also Self-re port studies, Rand inmate surveys; OfFi cial-record studies Individual offending frequency behavioral models of, 365-366 correlates of age at career initiation, 72-74, 341, 344-346 employment/unemployment, 75, 303-304, 348 prior criminal involvement, 75-76, 304, 308, 341, 346 substance abuse, 67, 74-75, 106, 349~352 definition, 12, 18-19, 55, 293, 295, 306 distinguished from incidence and participa tion, 56, 294-296 estimates of accuracy of, 61 age-specific differences in, 67-70, 302-303, 307~11, 325, 327, 341, 344-345, 347~48 cross-state differences in, 67, 213 for inmates, 125-128 from arrest histories, 5~61, 66, 70-71, 92, 294, 325-327 453 from conviction records, 73-74 from self-reports, 302-325 offense-specific, 59-68, 74, 305, 314-316, 333-352 race-specific differences in, 70-72, 308, 310, 325, 327, 341, 347-348 sex-specific differences in, 67-68, 327, 347348 sources of, 56-58, 102, 296 - 302, 342-343; see also Individual arrest frequency; Official-record studies; Self-report studies measurement of adjustments of, 326 methodological issues in, 105-106, 332-337, 353-366 strategies for, 319-321 time at risk, 302 recommendations for studies of, 204-205 spurts in, 22, 64-65, 67, 74, 107, 308, 323 - 324, 349-352, 361 Initiation, see Career initiation INSLAW scale, see Accuracy of offender classification; Offender classification, predictionbased Intervention, see Career modification; Prevention Iowa Risk Assessment Instrument, see Accuracy of offender classification; Offender classification, prediction-based Just deserts, see Ethical issues, just deserts Juvenile offenders, see Participation in offending Juvenile records participation studies based on, 32-33, 35, 39 recommendations on access and storage of, 193-194 use in criminal justice decision making, 159, 162, 166, 192-194 Lambda (A) , see Individual offending frequency Larceny, see Offenses, index; Offenses, property Longitudinal studies British National Survey, 43, 227-228 Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, 43, 227, 359 Cambridge-Somerville Youth Study, 43, 78, 224, 229, 234, 245, 277, 282, 294 design and strengths of, 32-33, 104-105, 217218 Marion County, Oregon, cohort, 225 of adoptees and their parents, 44, 234-235, 277-279 of child guidance clinic patients, 229, 248, 279, 286 Philadelphia cohorts career length of, 86-89, 91 individual arrest frequencies from, 56, 59, 70, 72, 339-341, 345-347 Read the entire page →
From page 454... ... 454 offense seriousness patterns of, 78-79,8184,377-378,385-387,390,401-402,410 participation estimates from, 35-37,40-41, 48,219-226,229-234,245,247,251-252, 254-255,257,282,290,335 prospective compared with retrospective, 104105 Racine, Wisconsin, cohorts career length calculations from, 86,88-89 offense seriousness, 86-90,368,375-376 participation estimates from, 36-37,40,48, 224-225,229-234,245,247,251,375-376 recommendations for, 199-202 St. Louis, Mo., arrestees, 369,374-375 Youth-in-Transition study, 244 M McCord, J., see Longitudinal studies, Cambridge-Somerville Youth Study Mednick, S., see Longitudinal studies, of adoptees and their parents Misdemeanor, definition, 19 n.1 Models failure-rate, 168,170-171 mover-stayer, 415,417 of collective incapacitative effects, 124-127, 143-151 of criminal careers, 20-22,106-107 of individual offending frequency, 107-108, 365-366 of offender heterogeneity, 90 of offense switching, 383-384,405-406,413, 415-418 of selective incapacitative effects, 131-135, 143-146,151-154 of spurts in criminal activity, 107 recommendations for research on, 207-208 stochastic-process, 15 Motor vehicle theft, see Offenses, index; Offenses, property Murder, see Offenses, index o Offender classification, prediction-based effectiveness of, 188-190 errors in, 111, 171-172,180-182,188; see also Accuracy of offender classifications methodological issues cut points, 171-174,180-181 scoring, 156,171-174 record-keeping implications of, 190-191,195197 scale development candidate risk factors, 165-166,168-169 criterion variables, 167-168 least-squares methods for, 169-170 validation, 170-171,174-176,180,183-184 INDEX scales Burgess, 169,176,179 failure-rate, 168,170-171,182 Greenwood seven-factor scale, see Rand In mate Survey Scale INSLAW, 178,186-189 Iowa Risk Assessment Instrument, 177-178, 183-186,189 Rand Inmate Survey Scale, 130-135,171 173,177-181,186,188-189 Salient Factor Scale, 135-139,178-179, 181-184,189-190 use of in decisions, 155-156,164 in parole release, 135-137 transferring scales between jurisdictions, 176-178 see also Accuracy of offender classifications; Ethical issues Offender rate, see Participation in offending, hazard and initiation rates Offenders characterization of, 317-319 generalists, 18,22,293; see also Offense switching persisters distinguished from Resistors, 90 selective treatment of, see Criminal justice decision making; Incapacitation, selective; Offender classification, prediction-based serious characteristics of, 75,89,94,319 sampling strategy for detecting, 102,364365 vulnerability to incarceration, 304 specialists, 18,22; see also Offense seriousness, specialization Offending, see Individual offending frequency; Participation in offending Offense clusters age-related patterns of offending in, 395-396 assessment by geometric scaling technique, 376 characterization of offenders by, 317 definition, 80,395 identification of, 80,395-396 in transition matrices, 383 race-specific variation in, 80 switching within and between, 396-397 Offense mix, 77-79 Offense seriousness characterization and definition of, 13,18,76, 376 demographic variables and, 36,41,53-54,376, 379-382 escalation age-specific trends in, 84-85,94 definition, 366 Read the entire page →
From page 455... ... INDEX measurement approaches, 376 modeling of, 22 race-specific patterns in, 401 relationship between record length and, 403_404, 412 Sellin-Wolfgang scale for detecting, 401 transition matrix analysis of, 397, 401-404 in criminal justice decision making parole release, 163 police decisions, 157 pretrial release, 161 sentencing, 129, 161 methodological issues in studying, 77, 84, 105, 402, 406-408, 418 offender classification on basis of, 165 self-reports for study of, 409 specialization among adult offenders, 392 definition, 81, 366, 374-375, 390 demographic characteristics in, 81-84, 375, 391, 393, 394, 411 offense type, 83, 415-416 transition matrix analysis of, 390-395 studies of, 76-77, 368-374, 409; see also Official-record studies; Self-report studies see also Offense switching Offense switching between personal and property categories in, 81, 396-397 characteristics inter-arrest intervals, 413-414 prior offense type, 81, 396-397 definition, 77 demographic patterns in, 79-81, 385-390 from status offenses, 81, 397 methodological issues in studying biases in sample selection, 105, 374, 407 413 distortions from use of official records, 408 409 duration dependence, 417-418 Markov/non-Markov modeling of, 383-384, 405-406, 413, 41~418 population heterogeneity, 105, 384-387, 412-413, 415, 417 test for offense clusters in, 398-399 test of independence among offense types, 400 sources of data on, 366-367 to Resistance, 81, 397 transition matrices in studying, 77, 79, 376 404 see also Offense clusters Offenses arrest frequencies by type of, 57, 60-61, 68 definition, 19 n.3, 29 distribution among adult arresters, 380-381 455 distribution among juvenile offenders, 378 drunkenness, 79 index age-specific patterns in, 18, 23, 37, 78-79, 244-245, 253 definition, 19 n.3 individual offending frequencies for, 65-66, 313 lifetime participation in, 229, 248 participation by age 18, 219-224, 226, 246 247 participation by high school age, 38-39, 235-240 race- and sex-specific arrest rates for, 24-25, 53 race- and sex-specific patterns of participa tion in, 40-41, 67, 249-251 reduction through increased incarceration, 128, 140 switching patterns, see Offense switching indictable, participation in, 227, 234 non-index, participation by age 18, 219-224, 226 nontragic age-specific participation in, 18, 37, 219 224, 234, 240-241, 247 definition, 35 lifetime participation, 228-229, 247-248 race- and sex-specific participation in, 41, 251-253 personal definition, 19 n.3 lifetime participation, 229 probability of arrest for, see Arrest probability probability of committing, 253-256 property age-specific patterns in, 39, 77-79 definition, 19 n.3 individual offending frequencies for, 66 lifetime participation in, 229, 248 race- and sex-specific arrest rates for, 25 recording of, 33, 98-100 serious, see Offenses, index status definition, 19 n.3 switching from, 81 variation with career length, 93-94 see also Offense clusters; Offense switching Official-record studies based on arrests, 102, 224, 241 convictions, 102-103, 224, 227, 268-269, 279 court referrals, 225 - 226, 251 juvenile court adjudications, 240 juvenile court convictions, 227 juvenile court records, 32~3, 35, 39, 220, 224, 241 Read the entire page →
From page 456... ... 456 police cautions, 227 recorded police contacts, 35, 219-225, 241 combined with self-report data, 38-39, 240- cumulative 241, 356-3S7, 364 design of, 32-35 of individual offending frequency, 59-61 of offense seriousness, 76-77, 366-406 of participation, 35-38, 250-252 research strategies for, 100-101 sample selection for, 218 see also Longitudinal studies Official records adult, use in criminal justice decision making, 161, 163, 190-192 arrests incomplete reporting of, 99, 330-331, 363 individual offending frequencies derived from, 65-67, 102 nonrecording rates for, 59, 99 definition, 14 errors and distortions in, 14 n.l, 22, 33, 55, 77, 81, 98-100, 102-104, 191, 362-364, 367, 408-409 estimating offending frequencies from, 59-61, 362-364 estimating participation from, 33-38, 216, 219 227, 240-241, 245-248 juvenile, see Juvenile records self-report, comparison with, 38-39, 101, 240 241, 248, 356-357 separation of juvenile and adult, 34, 192-194 sources of, 32~3, 212, 219 see also Arrest records; Victim reporting Onset of delinquency; see Career initiation p Parole, see Criminal justice decision making, parole Participation in offending as component of individual offending and arrest frequency, 19-20, 30~303 correlates of early antisocial behavior, 46-47, 279-282 employment/unemployment, 13, 51-53, 286289 family structure and disruptions, 45-46, 264-269 general, 42-43, 249, 256-257 genetic influence, 44, 277-279 intelligence, 49~50, 257, 264, 282-286 parental antisocial behavior, 273 parental criminality, 44-45, 273-279 parenting behavior, 43-44, 269-273 peer group influences, 53, 287-289 physiological factors, 287 school performance, 49-50, 28~286 sibling criminality, 264, 273 INDEX socioeconomic status, 47-49, 257-264, 268 substance abuse, 50-52, 118, 287-289 arrest projections based on, 228-229 by age 18, 32, 35-37, 106, 219-228 by high school age, 38, 235-241 calculation of, 213-215 estimation approaches to, 32, 214 current age distributions of, 41-42 arrest-specific measures of, 215 n.3 estimates of, 39, 241-245, 256 definition and terminology, 12, 17-19, 31-32, 211-213, 292 distinguished from individual offending fre quency, 17 n.2, 295 distinguished from prevalence and incidence, 17 n.2, 211-212 ecological studies of, 48-49, 257, 262 estimates of age-specific, 35, 41-42, 85, 219-235, 253 256 based on comparisons of official records and self-reports, 38-39, 240-241, 248 for adoptees, 234-235, 277-279 offense-specific, 33, 106, 305, 314-316 race-specific, 25-26, 36-37, 40-41, 219-226, 228-229, 252-253 sex-specific, 25, 35-40, 67, 219-228, 249 251 initiation and hazard rates, 32, 41, 214, 225 226, 248, 253-254 life-table studies, 32-33, 215-217, 225-227, 234, 246, 251 lifetime calculation of, 34, 106, 214 estimates of, 37, 228, 234-235 literature reviewed for estimates, 33-35, 21 219 measurement of age-specific, 214-215, 226 analytic framework for, 212-215 calculation from official records, 33~34 cohort effects, 216, 256 effect of data sources, 34-35, 39-40, 235 236, 245-249 general, 31-35, 212 observation period, 17 using multiple data bases, 34, 226, 228, 248 policy implications of findings on, 24, 109-111 prevention of, see Prevention of criminal ca reers recommendations for research on, 206-207 risk factors of, 15, 53-54, 110-111, 290 study designs of, 33-35, 217-219 Persistence in offending, 86-89; see also Career length Read the entire page →
From page 457... ... , see Accuracy of offender classifications Repeat Offender Project, 158 Repeat offenders, see Offenders, serious Risk classification, see Offender classification, prediction-based Robbery, see Offenses, index S Safety crimes, definition, 19 n.3; see also Offenses, index Salient Factor Score, see Accuracy of offender classification; Offender classification, prediction-based, scales, Salient Factor Score Sample selection bias, 56, 59, 90-91, 101-105, 457 225, 304, 306, 323, 330, 332-337, 339, 353-359, 363, 374, 409-412 Self-report studies design and nature of, 21, 32~5, 56, 97-98, 212, 218-219, 302-304 estimates of participation from, see Participa tion in offending, estimates of, from self reports estimates of individual offending frequency, see Individual offending frequency, esti mates of, from self-reports National Youth Survey individual arrest frequency from, 56, 347 individual offending frequency from, 65-67, 323, 338, 348 offense mix patterns from, 76 participation estimates from, 41-42, 50-52, 65, 240, 244, 255-256, 268, 354~56 response categories and rates, 359-360 Rand inmate surveys biases in, 56, 304, 306, 323, 353 design of, 56, 97, 30~304, 306, 309-310, 312, 319 differences between two surveys, 63-65 first survey, 304~08, 310, 360 individual offending frequency estimated from, 61 - 65, 70-71, 75, 88, 126, 168, 302 offense distributions in, 417 response rates and quality, 98, 309~313, 322, 360~61 second survey, 308~25, 360~61 see also Offender classification, prediction based, scales, Rand Inmate Survey Scale research strategies for, 97-98, 101 Self-reports definition, 14 errors and distortions in, 14 n.3, 33, 55, 96-98, 101, 212, 235-236, 248, 306, 312~13, 322 estimates of arrest probability from, 60 incidents reported in, 21, 34-35, 212 obtaining valid frequency estimates from, 97, 359-362 official records, comparison with, 38-39, 101, 240-241, 248, 356-3S7 scope of, 21, 34~5, 212 Sentencing, see Criminal justice decision making, sentencing Shannon, L.W., see Longitudinal studies, Racine, Wisconsin, cohorts Substance abuse delinquency and, 50-52 in identifying serious offenders, 163, 166, 180 individual offending frequency and, 67, 74-75, 106, 308, 310, 349-352 participation and, 50-51, 118, 287-289 pretrial release decisions based on, 161, 195 treatment for career modification, 118-120 Read the entire page →
From page 458... ... 458 T Transition Aid Research Project for Ex-Offenders (TARP) , 122 U Unemployment, see Employment/unemployment V Victim reporting factors affecting, 34, 333 INDEX measurement problems in, 99, 361 rates of, 126, 332 Violent crimes, see Offenses, index Violent predators, see Offenders, serious W Wadsworth, M., see Longitudinal studies, British National Survey Wolfgang, M.E., see Longitudinal studies, Philadelphia cohorts Read the entire page →

From page 451...

... definition, 20 estimates of, 34,59-61,338 factors that increase, 157-158,335 offense-specific estimates of, 59-60,332-333, 408-409 Arrest rates, see Individual arrest frequency Arrest records, see Official records, arrests Arrests, see Arrest probability (q) ; Criminal justice decision making, police decisions; Official records, arrests B Behavior modification, see Interventions; Rehabilitation Burglary, see Offenses, index; Offenses, property C Career criminal units, 159-160,186 Career criminals, see Offenders, serious 451 Career initiation definition, 20-22,32,213-215 probability by age, 13,22,41-42,253 Career length and incarceration, 15,26,85,92-93,126-128, 133-134 definition and characterization of, 13,18,20 dropout rate, 20,85-89 estimates of, 18,22,94-95,293 measures of biases in, 90-91 by age, 86-89 by number of arrests, 89-91 in years, 91-94 persistence probabilities, 86-91 recommendations for studies of, 206 residual, 18,20,92-95,126 Career modification behavioral interventions, 116-117 community-based and family treatment programs, 115-1 18 definition, lS-16, 109-110 employment programs, 120-122 individual and group counseling, 116,118 Job Corps, 120-121 optimal age for, 111 Outward Bound, 118 recommendations for studies of, 117-118,202204 strategies for, 15-16 substance abuse treatment programs, 118-120 training schools, 116

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From page 452...

... 452 Career termination, 85-86; see also Career length Chaiken, J., and Chaiken, M., see Self-report studies, Rand inmate surveys Chronic offenders, see Offenders, serious Classification, see Offender classification, prediction-based Convictions, see Official-record studies Crime control policies and strategies use of criminal career knowledge for, 15-16, 24, 26, 88, 109-110, 366 use of parole, 135-139 use of selective incapacitation, 130-135 see also Career modification; Criminal justice decision making; Deterrence; Incapacitation; Incarceration; Prevention of criminal careers; Rehabilitation Crime rates, aggregate as measure of crime, 12-13 interpreting, 13, 22-24, 49, 213 reduction of, 123-124 see also Individual offending frequency; Participation in offending Crimes, see Offenses Criminal activity, see Participation in offending; Individual offending frequency Criminal careers definition and model of, 18-22, 24-26, 28-30 recommendations for research on, 10-11, 67, 198-209 sample designs for research on, 101-104 studies of, see Longitudinal studies; Official records; Self-reports see also Career initiation; Career length; Individual offending frequency; Offense seriousness; Participation in offending; Prevention of criminal careers Criminal justice decision making parole, 135, 162-163 police decisions, 157-158 pretrial release, 160-161 prosecution, 158-160 records useful to, 190-195 sentencing based on offender characteristics, 130-135; see also Offender classification, prediction-based charge-based policies, 139-141 determinants of, 161-162 use of criminal career information in, 6-7, 155-157, 163, 195-197 use of current offense, L29, 157, 161, 163 use of demographic correlates in, 94 Cross-sectional data, 33, 104-105; see also Selfreport studies D Dangerous offenders, see Offenders, serious INDEX Delinquency definition, 19 n.3 family influences on, 43 self-report studies of, 32 see also Participation in offending Desistance, false, 91; see also Career length Deterrence definition, 15, 28 evaluations of, 26, 28, 295-296 measurement of, 313 see also Career modification Differential association theory, 53 Duration of offending, see Career length E Elliott, D.S., see Self-report studies, National Youth Survey Employment/unemployment career modification programs based on, 120 122 in criminal justice decision making, 157-163 in prediction scales, 166, 180, 183, 186 individual offending frequency and, 75, 303 304, 348 participation in offending and, 13, 51-53, 286 289 pretrial release decisions based on, 161, 195 Ethical issues blameworthiness, 166 equal protection, 166-167 in prediction, 8, 17, 128-130, 156, 164-167, 171, 180, 195-197 in record-keeping, 190-195 in selective incapacitation, 129-130, 140 just deserts, 122, 129, 141, 165, 190 F False arrests, 14 n.l; see also Official records, errors and distortions in Farrington, D.F., see Longitudinal studies, Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development FBI Uniform Crime Report index offenses, see Offenses, index Felony, definition, 19 n.3 G Greenwood, P.W., see Offender classification, prediction-based Group offending and participation, 53 e�ect on incapacitation, 27, 123, 126, 135 recommendations for studies of, 205-206 H Habitual offender statutes, 128, 165 Habitual offenders, see Offenders, serious Hazard rate for initiation, 22, 41-42, 253 for career termination, 20, 85-89 see also Participation in offending Homicide, see Offenses, index

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From page 453...

... INDEX Imprisonment, see Incarceration Incapacitation charge-based, see Criminal justice decision making, sentencing, charge-based policies collective, 122-128, 142-143, 146-151 definition, 15, 110 estimates of effects, 133, 141-142 for crime control, 15, 26-27, 85 selective definition, 16-17 in parole decisions, 135-139 estimating effects of, 122-123, 131-135, 142154, 311-312 n.6 operational issues, 141-142 see also Ethical issues; Incarceration; Offender classification, prediction-based Incarceration criminogenic e�ects of, 28 estimates of effects of, 12~128, 302 inefficient use of, 15, 26, 92-93, 128 length and parole decisions, 162-163 see also Prison populations Incidence, definition, 17 n.2; see also Individual offending frequency Individual arrest frequency age-specific patterns in, 23-24, 330, 344-345 definition, 59-60, 295 measurement of, 59, 330, 335, 339, 346-347, 363 offense-specific estimates of, 57-59, 328-332, 334 race-specific patterns in, 25, 41, 330 relationship to individual offending frequency, 59-61, 98-100 sex-specific differences in, 24, 25 sources of estimates, 55-57; see also Self-re port studies, Rand inmate surveys; OfFi cial-record studies Individual offending frequency behavioral models of, 365-366 correlates of age at career initiation, 72-74, 341, 344-346 employment/unemployment, 75, 303-304, 348 prior criminal involvement, 75-76, 304, 308, 341, 346 substance abuse, 67, 74-75, 106, 349~352 definition, 12, 18-19, 55, 293, 295, 306 distinguished from incidence and participa tion, 56, 294-296 estimates of accuracy of, 61 age-specific differences in, 67-70, 302-303, 307~11, 325, 327, 341, 344-345, 347~48 cross-state differences in, 67, 213 for inmates, 125-128 from arrest histories, 5~61, 66, 70-71, 92, 294, 325-327 453 from conviction records, 73-74 from self-reports, 302-325 offense-specific, 59-68, 74, 305, 314-316, 333-352 race-specific differences in, 70-72, 308, 310, 325, 327, 341, 347-348 sex-specific differences in, 67-68, 327, 347348 sources of, 56-58, 102, 296 - 302, 342-343; see also Individual arrest frequency; Official-record studies; Self-report studies measurement of adjustments of, 326 methodological issues in, 105-106, 332-337, 353-366 strategies for, 319-321 time at risk, 302 recommendations for studies of, 204-205 spurts in, 22, 64-65, 67, 74, 107, 308, 323 - 324, 349-352, 361 Initiation, see Career initiation INSLAW scale, see Accuracy of offender classification; Offender classification, predictionbased Intervention, see Career modification; Prevention Iowa Risk Assessment Instrument, see Accuracy of offender classification; Offender classification, prediction-based Just deserts, see Ethical issues, just deserts Juvenile offenders, see Participation in offending Juvenile records participation studies based on, 32-33, 35, 39 recommendations on access and storage of, 193-194 use in criminal justice decision making, 159, 162, 166, 192-194 Lambda (A) , see Individual offending frequency Larceny, see Offenses, index; Offenses, property Longitudinal studies British National Survey, 43, 227-228 Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, 43, 227, 359 Cambridge-Somerville Youth Study, 43, 78, 224, 229, 234, 245, 277, 282, 294 design and strengths of, 32-33, 104-105, 217218 Marion County, Oregon, cohort, 225 of adoptees and their parents, 44, 234-235, 277-279 of child guidance clinic patients, 229, 248, 279, 286 Philadelphia cohorts career length of, 86-89, 91 individual arrest frequencies from, 56, 59, 70, 72, 339-341, 345-347

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From page 454...

... 454 offense seriousness patterns of, 78-79,8184,377-378,385-387,390,401-402,410 participation estimates from, 35-37,40-41, 48,219-226,229-234,245,247,251-252, 254-255,257,282,290,335 prospective compared with retrospective, 104105 Racine, Wisconsin, cohorts career length calculations from, 86,88-89 offense seriousness, 86-90,368,375-376 participation estimates from, 36-37,40,48, 224-225,229-234,245,247,251,375-376 recommendations for, 199-202 St. Louis, Mo., arrestees, 369,374-375 Youth-in-Transition study, 244 M McCord, J., see Longitudinal studies, Cambridge-Somerville Youth Study Mednick, S., see Longitudinal studies, of adoptees and their parents Misdemeanor, definition, 19 n.1 Models failure-rate, 168,170-171 mover-stayer, 415,417 of collective incapacitative effects, 124-127, 143-151 of criminal careers, 20-22,106-107 of individual offending frequency, 107-108, 365-366 of offender heterogeneity, 90 of offense switching, 383-384,405-406,413, 415-418 of selective incapacitative effects, 131-135, 143-146,151-154 of spurts in criminal activity, 107 recommendations for research on, 207-208 stochastic-process, 15 Motor vehicle theft, see Offenses, index; Offenses, property Murder, see Offenses, index o Offender classification, prediction-based effectiveness of, 188-190 errors in, 111, 171-172,180-182,188; see also Accuracy of offender classifications methodological issues cut points, 171-174,180-181 scoring, 156,171-174 record-keeping implications of, 190-191,195197 scale development candidate risk factors, 165-166,168-169 criterion variables, 167-168 least-squares methods for, 169-170 validation, 170-171,174-176,180,183-184 INDEX scales Burgess, 169,176,179 failure-rate, 168,170-171,182 Greenwood seven-factor scale, see Rand In mate Survey Scale INSLAW, 178,186-189 Iowa Risk Assessment Instrument, 177-178, 183-186,189 Rand Inmate Survey Scale, 130-135,171 173,177-181,186,188-189 Salient Factor Scale, 135-139,178-179, 181-184,189-190 use of in decisions, 155-156,164 in parole release, 135-137 transferring scales between jurisdictions, 176-178 see also Accuracy of offender classifications; Ethical issues Offender rate, see Participation in offending, hazard and initiation rates Offenders characterization of, 317-319 generalists, 18,22,293; see also Offense switching persisters distinguished from Resistors, 90 selective treatment of, see Criminal justice decision making; Incapacitation, selective; Offender classification, prediction-based serious characteristics of, 75,89,94,319 sampling strategy for detecting, 102,364365 vulnerability to incarceration, 304 specialists, 18,22; see also Offense seriousness, specialization Offending, see Individual offending frequency; Participation in offending Offense clusters age-related patterns of offending in, 395-396 assessment by geometric scaling technique, 376 characterization of offenders by, 317 definition, 80,395 identification of, 80,395-396 in transition matrices, 383 race-specific variation in, 80 switching within and between, 396-397 Offense mix, 77-79 Offense seriousness characterization and definition of, 13,18,76, 376 demographic variables and, 36,41,53-54,376, 379-382 escalation age-specific trends in, 84-85,94 definition, 366

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From page 455...

... INDEX measurement approaches, 376 modeling of, 22 race-specific patterns in, 401 relationship between record length and, 403_404, 412 Sellin-Wolfgang scale for detecting, 401 transition matrix analysis of, 397, 401-404 in criminal justice decision making parole release, 163 police decisions, 157 pretrial release, 161 sentencing, 129, 161 methodological issues in studying, 77, 84, 105, 402, 406-408, 418 offender classification on basis of, 165 self-reports for study of, 409 specialization among adult offenders, 392 definition, 81, 366, 374-375, 390 demographic characteristics in, 81-84, 375, 391, 393, 394, 411 offense type, 83, 415-416 transition matrix analysis of, 390-395 studies of, 76-77, 368-374, 409; see also Official-record studies; Self-report studies see also Offense switching Offense switching between personal and property categories in, 81, 396-397 characteristics inter-arrest intervals, 413-414 prior offense type, 81, 396-397 definition, 77 demographic patterns in, 79-81, 385-390 from status offenses, 81, 397 methodological issues in studying biases in sample selection, 105, 374, 407 413 distortions from use of official records, 408 409 duration dependence, 417-418 Markov/non-Markov modeling of, 383-384, 405-406, 413, 41~418 population heterogeneity, 105, 384-387, 412-413, 415, 417 test for offense clusters in, 398-399 test of independence among offense types, 400 sources of data on, 366-367 to Resistance, 81, 397 transition matrices in studying, 77, 79, 376 404 see also Offense clusters Offenses arrest frequencies by type of, 57, 60-61, 68 definition, 19 n.3, 29 distribution among adult arresters, 380-381 455 distribution among juvenile offenders, 378 drunkenness, 79 index age-specific patterns in, 18, 23, 37, 78-79, 244-245, 253 definition, 19 n.3 individual offending frequencies for, 65-66, 313 lifetime participation in, 229, 248 participation by age 18, 219-224, 226, 246 247 participation by high school age, 38-39, 235-240 race- and sex-specific arrest rates for, 24-25, 53 race- and sex-specific patterns of participa tion in, 40-41, 67, 249-251 reduction through increased incarceration, 128, 140 switching patterns, see Offense switching indictable, participation in, 227, 234 non-index, participation by age 18, 219-224, 226 nontragic age-specific participation in, 18, 37, 219 224, 234, 240-241, 247 definition, 35 lifetime participation, 228-229, 247-248 race- and sex-specific participation in, 41, 251-253 personal definition, 19 n.3 lifetime participation, 229 probability of arrest for, see Arrest probability probability of committing, 253-256 property age-specific patterns in, 39, 77-79 definition, 19 n.3 individual offending frequencies for, 66 lifetime participation in, 229, 248 race- and sex-specific arrest rates for, 25 recording of, 33, 98-100 serious, see Offenses, index status definition, 19 n.3 switching from, 81 variation with career length, 93-94 see also Offense clusters; Offense switching Official-record studies based on arrests, 102, 224, 241 convictions, 102-103, 224, 227, 268-269, 279 court referrals, 225 - 226, 251 juvenile court adjudications, 240 juvenile court convictions, 227 juvenile court records, 32~3, 35, 39, 220, 224, 241

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From page 456...

... 456 police cautions, 227 recorded police contacts, 35, 219-225, 241 combined with self-report data, 38-39, 240- cumulative 241, 356-3S7, 364 design of, 32-35 of individual offending frequency, 59-61 of offense seriousness, 76-77, 366-406 of participation, 35-38, 250-252 research strategies for, 100-101 sample selection for, 218 see also Longitudinal studies Official records adult, use in criminal justice decision making, 161, 163, 190-192 arrests incomplete reporting of, 99, 330-331, 363 individual offending frequencies derived from, 65-67, 102 nonrecording rates for, 59, 99 definition, 14 errors and distortions in, 14 n.l, 22, 33, 55, 77, 81, 98-100, 102-104, 191, 362-364, 367, 408-409 estimating offending frequencies from, 59-61, 362-364 estimating participation from, 33-38, 216, 219 227, 240-241, 245-248 juvenile, see Juvenile records self-report, comparison with, 38-39, 101, 240 241, 248, 356-357 separation of juvenile and adult, 34, 192-194 sources of, 32~3, 212, 219 see also Arrest records; Victim reporting Onset of delinquency; see Career initiation p Parole, see Criminal justice decision making, parole Participation in offending as component of individual offending and arrest frequency, 19-20, 30~303 correlates of early antisocial behavior, 46-47, 279-282 employment/unemployment, 13, 51-53, 286289 family structure and disruptions, 45-46, 264-269 general, 42-43, 249, 256-257 genetic influence, 44, 277-279 intelligence, 49~50, 257, 264, 282-286 parental antisocial behavior, 273 parental criminality, 44-45, 273-279 parenting behavior, 43-44, 269-273 peer group influences, 53, 287-289 physiological factors, 287 school performance, 49-50, 28~286 sibling criminality, 264, 273 INDEX socioeconomic status, 47-49, 257-264, 268 substance abuse, 50-52, 118, 287-289 arrest projections based on, 228-229 by age 18, 32, 35-37, 106, 219-228 by high school age, 38, 235-241 calculation of, 213-215 estimation approaches to, 32, 214 current age distributions of, 41-42 arrest-specific measures of, 215 n.3 estimates of, 39, 241-245, 256 definition and terminology, 12, 17-19, 31-32, 211-213, 292 distinguished from individual offending fre quency, 17 n.2, 295 distinguished from prevalence and incidence, 17 n.2, 211-212 ecological studies of, 48-49, 257, 262 estimates of age-specific, 35, 41-42, 85, 219-235, 253 256 based on comparisons of official records and self-reports, 38-39, 240-241, 248 for adoptees, 234-235, 277-279 offense-specific, 33, 106, 305, 314-316 race-specific, 25-26, 36-37, 40-41, 219-226, 228-229, 252-253 sex-specific, 25, 35-40, 67, 219-228, 249 251 initiation and hazard rates, 32, 41, 214, 225 226, 248, 253-254 life-table studies, 32-33, 215-217, 225-227, 234, 246, 251 lifetime calculation of, 34, 106, 214 estimates of, 37, 228, 234-235 literature reviewed for estimates, 33-35, 21 219 measurement of age-specific, 214-215, 226 analytic framework for, 212-215 calculation from official records, 33~34 cohort effects, 216, 256 effect of data sources, 34-35, 39-40, 235 236, 245-249 general, 31-35, 212 observation period, 17 using multiple data bases, 34, 226, 228, 248 policy implications of findings on, 24, 109-111 prevention of, see Prevention of criminal ca reers recommendations for research on, 206-207 risk factors of, 15, 53-54, 110-111, 290 study designs of, 33-35, 217-219 Persistence in offending, 86-89; see also Career length

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From page 457...

... , see Accuracy of offender classifications Repeat Offender Project, 158 Repeat offenders, see Offenders, serious Risk classification, see Offender classification, prediction-based Robbery, see Offenses, index S Safety crimes, definition, 19 n.3; see also Offenses, index Salient Factor Score, see Accuracy of offender classification; Offender classification, prediction-based, scales, Salient Factor Score Sample selection bias, 56, 59, 90-91, 101-105, 457 225, 304, 306, 323, 330, 332-337, 339, 353-359, 363, 374, 409-412 Self-report studies design and nature of, 21, 32~5, 56, 97-98, 212, 218-219, 302-304 estimates of participation from, see Participa tion in offending, estimates of, from self reports estimates of individual offending frequency, see Individual offending frequency, esti mates of, from self-reports National Youth Survey individual arrest frequency from, 56, 347 individual offending frequency from, 65-67, 323, 338, 348 offense mix patterns from, 76 participation estimates from, 41-42, 50-52, 65, 240, 244, 255-256, 268, 354~56 response categories and rates, 359-360 Rand inmate surveys biases in, 56, 304, 306, 323, 353 design of, 56, 97, 30~304, 306, 309-310, 312, 319 differences between two surveys, 63-65 first survey, 304~08, 310, 360 individual offending frequency estimated from, 61 - 65, 70-71, 75, 88, 126, 168, 302 offense distributions in, 417 response rates and quality, 98, 309~313, 322, 360~61 second survey, 308~25, 360~61 see also Offender classification, prediction based, scales, Rand Inmate Survey Scale research strategies for, 97-98, 101 Self-reports definition, 14 errors and distortions in, 14 n.3, 33, 55, 96-98, 101, 212, 235-236, 248, 306, 312~13, 322 estimates of arrest probability from, 60 incidents reported in, 21, 34-35, 212 obtaining valid frequency estimates from, 97, 359-362 official records, comparison with, 38-39, 101, 240-241, 248, 356-3S7 scope of, 21, 34~5, 212 Sentencing, see Criminal justice decision making, sentencing Shannon, L.W., see Longitudinal studies, Racine, Wisconsin, cohorts Substance abuse delinquency and, 50-52 in identifying serious offenders, 163, 166, 180 individual offending frequency and, 67, 74-75, 106, 308, 310, 349-352 participation and, 50-51, 118, 287-289 pretrial release decisions based on, 161, 195 treatment for career modification, 118-120

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From page 458...

... 458 T Transition Aid Research Project for Ex-Offenders (TARP) , 122 U Unemployment, see Employment/unemployment V Victim reporting factors affecting, 34, 333 INDEX measurement problems in, 99, 361 rates of, 126, 332 Violent crimes, see Offenses, index Violent predators, see Offenders, serious W Wadsworth, M., see Longitudinal studies, British National Survey Wolfgang, M.E., see Longitudinal studies, Philadelphia cohorts

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Index Pages 451-458

Index
Pages 451-458