Criminal Careers and "Career Criminals," Volume I (1986) / Chapter Skim
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3. Dimensions of Active Criminal Careers
3. Dimensions of Active Criminal Careers
Pages 55-95
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From page 55... ...
This chapter provides some empirical estimates ofthose dimensions of active criminal careers and also examines some factors that may be associated with active offending, such as age of initiation, drug use, and employment history. INDIVIDUAL FREQUENCY RATES Individual offending frequencies are a funciamental feature of the criminal career.
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From page 56... ...
Such reported incidence rates reflect the combined effects of participation in crime in a population and individual frequency rates for active offenders. An incidence rate measured by crimes per capita in a total sample can be partitioned between participation rates and frequency rates:
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From page 57... ...
The general strategy is to divide incidence rates by participation rates for the same measurement period to yield frequency rates for the active subset in the population. With this approach, frequency rates can be estimated for a broader range of offender samples, including juveniles.
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From page 58... ...
The lowest values of ,u are found for auto theft and aggravated assault, with active offenders in these offense types averaging about one arrest every 5 to 7 years. In Washington, active offenders in robbery and burglary experience about one arrest so limited the sample sizes that estimating frequency rates would have been impractical.
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From page 59... ...
by Crime Type This section discusses estimates of A that have been obtained in either of two ways: by adjusting estimates of,u to infer A, using aggregate arrest probabilities, or by surveying samples of offenders to obtain self-reports of their offending frequencies. Inferring A from ,u Individual arrest rate estimates like those in Table 3-1 can be used in combination with assumptions about the arrest process to generate estimates of individual frequency rates for crimes committed.
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From page 60... ...
Table 3-3 presents inclividual offending frequencies estimated from arrest frequencies for adults. For most offense types, the inclividual frequency rates estimatecl in Washington and Detroit are comparable in magnitude, with mean indiviclual rates of 3.5 to 4.5 robberies, 2 to 3 aggravated assaults, and 5 to 6 burglaries.
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From page 61... ...
In adclition to concern about the accuracy of the average value of q that is used, the TABLE 3-3 Mean Individual Offending Frequencies Estimated from Arrest Histories for Adult Arrestees (crimes committed per active offender per year free) Mean Individual Offending Frequencies, A Offense Type Robbery Aggravated assault Burglary Larceny Auto theft All index Washington, D.C., Adultsa Detroit SMSA Adultsb 3.4 1.7 5.7 10.9 3.0 13.2 4.7 2.9 5.3 7.3 9.3 8.7 NOTES: Sample sizes for specific offense types range from 100 to 300 active offenders.
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From page 62... ...
The distribution is characterized by a large number of offenders committing offenses at Tow rates and a small number committing offenses at very high rates. In this example, among incoming prisoners who commit robbery (i.e., in 60 50 4J cot to ~40 9 ~2 o CC E o 30 CD 4, Cat E O 20 4J cat c' cot 10 o CRIMINAL CAREERS AND CAREER CRIMINALS mates who report at least one robbery during the 1 to 2 years prior to incarceration)
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From page 63... ...
849.9 N.A. NOTE: Sample sizes for specific offense types are generally in the range of 100~50 active offenders, except for fraud and motor vehicle theft in the second inmate survey of incoming prisoners, with 69 and 87 active offenders, respectively.
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From page 64... ...
The resulting 35 to 40 percent ambiguous responses were likely to have been a factor in the computation CRIMINAL CAREERS AND CAREER CRIMINALS of minimum and maximum rates for each respondent in the original analysis of the second inmate survey. In a reanalysis of the survey data, Visher (Volume II)
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From page 65... ...
The frequencies derives! from the arrest histories of 4These rates are adjusted to remove the upward bias introduced by the requirement that all active offenders commit at least one crime of an offense type during the 1-year observation periods.
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From page 66... ...
from self-reports of youths in a general population sample are most similar. Active offenders in various offense types are estimated to commit an average of 2 to 4 serious assaults each year and an average of 5 to 10 of the various property offenses.
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From page 67... ...
Sex Large differences are found in participation rates for mates and females, with 5:1 ratios of maTe/female participation for UCR inclex crimes. Because the numbers of female offenders are generally small, especially for serious offense types, separate frequency rates are rarely reported for females.
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From page 68... ...
from self-reports, the data provide little evidence of strong systematic changes with age in offensespecific frequency rates for active offenders. The strong opposite trends observed during the juvenile and adult periods in aggregate population arrest rates increasing for teenagers and decreasing for adults are not observed in individual frequency rates estimated by offense type and age for cohorts of juveniles or adults.
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From page 69... ...
preliminary result because ot the gener- Some evidence of a more systematic ally small samples of active offenders age effectis found, however, when sepa (sometimes less than 35) used to generate rate offense types are aggregated to form
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From page 70... ...
One intriguing hypothesis is that these opposite trends in total frequencies for active offenders may be associated with an increase with age in the number CRIMINAL CAREERS AND CAREER CRIMINALS of different offense types committed by juvenile offenders, followed by a decline with age in offense types committed by adults. Evidence for such an effect was suggested in the first Rand inmate survey: the number of active crime types declines with age, while crime-specific frequencies (reflected in the "intensity scale score")
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From page 71... ...
7.4* 3.9 6.3 Offense Type Arrests per Year per Active Offender, lob Adult Offenders in Detroit SMSA Robbery Aggravated assault Burglary Larceny Auto theft All indexC Whites Blacks Ratio of BlackMrhite Ratesa .74 .97 1.19 2.13 .15 .54 .01 .84 .32 .34 .72 .84 .74 .78 .22 .56 .89 .12 .48 .28 .15 .98 NOTE: Rates denoted by an asterisk are based on fewer than 20 active offenders in the offense type.
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From page 72... ...
The lower reciclivism rates for offenders who started criminal activity at older ages thus may result either from a greater tendency for those relatively late starters to terminate their criminal activity early or from lower frequency rates for active offenders who begin their criminal activity at older ages. Figure 3-2 presents annual total frequency rates for all offenses estimated for offenders who begin criminal careers at different ages (as indicated by age at the first detected criminal event)
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From page 73... ...
Thus, only active offenders enter the estimates. The estimates of average conviction frequencies for London mate youths are based on the total convictions per youth over the period between ages 10 and 24 for each starting age, as reported in Farrington (1983a:Table 3~.
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From page 74... ...
The same general pattern of a decline in frequency rates for older starting ages, illustrated in Figure 3-2, is also observed for separate offense types. Drug Use Offending frequencies vary with drug use for active offenders (Wish and Johnson, Volume II)
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From page 75... ...
This relationship has been observed for various offense types, for both juveniles and adults, using frequency rates based on official-record and self-report data and using various indices of previous offending, inclu(ling self-reporte(1 offenses, arrests, convictions, and incarcerations (Blumstein and Cohen, 1979; Peterson and Braiker, 1980; Chaiken and Chaiken, 1982a; Greenwood, 1982) and also using incidence rates that combine frequency and participation (see e.g., Farrington, 19841.
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From page 76... ...
One can consider changes in the seriousness of offense types without regard to patterns in frequency rates. -Types of Studies SERIOUSNESS In addition to individual frequency rates, which gauge the intensity of offending by active offenders, the mix of different offense types that are committed is a key dimension of indiviclual criminal careers.
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From page 77... ...
Changes in Offense Mix Data on the changing mix of offense types at different stages of criminal careers are available from several sources. As illustrated in the first two studies in Table 3-11, comparing adult and juvenile offending patterns, property offenses are
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From page 78... ...
(84) 78 CRIMINAL CAREERS AND CAREER CRIMINALS TABLE 3-11 Changes in Mix of Offense Types (in percent)
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From page 79... ...
However, they do not necessarfly reflect the dynamics of change during criminal careers. Because the distributions are not linked to the same offenders in each time period, comparisons across time periods may reflect changes 79 in the mix of offenders rather than changes in offense types cluring careers.
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From page 80... ...
. The greater likelihood of switches to violence and robbery found among nonwhite offenders parallels the race differences observed in participation rates for these offense types.
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From page 81... ...
Table 3-12 illustrates this greater tenclency of repeating the same offense type on successive arrests for juveniles with police contacts in Philaclelphia ant! adults arrested in the Detroit SMSA.
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From page 82... ...
. This finding suggests a more exploratory approach to crime by juvenile offenders and a stronger commitment to particular offense types by adult offenders.
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From page 83... ...
No differences in speciaTization are observed between white and black adults. Interestingly, despite the greater tendency of nonwhites to switch to violent offense types discussed previously for Philadelphia juveniles, they do not exhibit specialization in either injury or damage offenses.
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From page 84... ...
Because offenders have different numbers of arrests, the same offenders are not observed over the full sequence of arrests. For early arrests, average seriousness reflects the contributions of a mixture of offenders, some with only a few arrests CRIMINAL CAREERS AND CAREER CRIMINALS and some with long records of arrests.
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From page 85... ...
Also, for already active offenders, there are questions about the process of terminating their careers, especially about the expectec! time remaining in an offender's criminal career as of a particular time the residual career length.
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From page 86... ...
The third approach to career length focuses on the actual duration of criminal careers, estimating the time that elapses between the first and last crimes committed. In analyzing incapacitative sentencing policies, variation in residual career lengths at the time of sentencing is especially important because incarceration that extends beyond the end of a career has no incapacitative effect.
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From page 87... ...
This fraction rises sharply with the presence of just one police contact in a juvenile record and continues to rise
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From page 88... ...
, there is strong evidence that the existence of a juvenile delinquency career foreshadows adult criminal careers. Even though juvenile delinquents are far more likely than nondelinquents to become adult offenders, 40 to 50 percent of adult offenders do not have records of juvenile police contacts: because nondelinquent juveniles greatly outnumber delinquent juveniles, even though a smaller fraction of the nonclelinquents become adult offenders, their great numbers lead to a substantial contribution of adult offenders.
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From page 89... ...
suggest that the result is also attributable to a genuinely higher level of activity by early starters, as measured by annual arrest frequency, ,u. 89 The basic finding that a small number of extraordinarily active offenders account for a disproportionately large share of total arrests attracted the interest of scholars and practitioners and stimulated efforts to understand offenders' tem~ination pattems.
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From page 90... ...
The tendency for persistence probabilities to increase to a common limit as the number of arrests or convictions increases can be interpreted as reflecting a developmental process, in which persisters gradually become more strongly committed to illegal behavior (or less well suited for legal employment) as their criminal careers progress.
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From page 91... ...
Thus, crimefree intervals as Tong as 1/,u years will not be uncommon for active offenders.~° Erroneously attributing the absence of further events near the end of the observation period to career Resistance rather than to the random time between events in a still active career will leac! to overstatements of Resistance, called "false de .
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From page 92... ...
, is almost identical to the more recent estimates off for index offenses, reported earlier in this chapter, based on analysis of arrest histories for active offenders. i2In a simulation of criminal careers using crimespecific recidivism probabilities (which were held constant to some age and then declined to zero at some later age)
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From page 93... ...
are used, distinct career 93 length patterns are evident for property and violent offenses. For the property crimes of burglary, auto theft, and robbery analyzecl separately and as a group-patterns of residual career length are similar to that shown in Figure 34 for all index offenses.
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From page 94... ...
The median offender engages in only a few crimes per year, but the most active 10 percent of offenders commit crimes at CRIMINAL CAREERS AND CAREER CRIMINALS rates that may exceed 100 per year. At virtually all stages of criminal careers, the factors that distinguish the hi~hest-rate offenders are still only incompletely known, but certainly include the follow~ng: ,, , · high frequency of prior offending; · early onset of delinquency as a juvenile; · drug use, measured either currently or over time; and · unstable employment in the recent Offenders engage in a great diversity of crime types, with a somewhat greater tendency for offenders to repeat the same crime or to repeat within the group of property crimes or the group of violent crimes.
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From page 95... ...
TR does not begin to decline rapidly until active offenders reach their 40s. These insights into the structure of residual career length contradict a widely held view that derives from aggregate statistics.
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