Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States (2000) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
1 Energy Setting for China and the United States
1 Energy Setting for China and the United States
Pages 15-43
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From page 15... ...
A rise in either population or economic output results in increased energy demand. Advances in technology and the substitution of more efficient technologies lead to a decrease in energy intensity (the unit of primary energy consumed per unit of economic output)
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.° 60 40 20 o 1980 1985 1990 1995 Year 2000 2010 2020 ~ Renewables [;1 Nuclear Natural Gas ~ Petroleum FIGURE 1-1 U.S. Commercial Energy Consumption by Fuel.
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From page 17... ...
of just over 2 percent per year to 2020, with faster growth occurring in less energy-intensive industries. Energy intensity2 the measure of primary energy consumption per dollar of GDP will continue to decline gradually through 2020.3 [A number of factors influence the energy intensity degree of employment of best available end-use technologies, adoption of energy-efficient technologies, as well as structural changes in the economy.]
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The pattern of end-use energy consumption in China has been relatively stable over the past 20 years. In 1997, industrial energy demand continued to be strong, accounting for about 68 percent of energy end use.
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China is a leading developing country in implementing energy efficiency, and the sum of China's many successes includes reducing energy demand growth to half that of GDP growth since 1980. This is a spectacular achievement that deserves much broader recognition.
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, an 11 percent decrease in commercial energy consumption (energy intensity decreases at 0.6 percent per year) , and an acceleration of transportation efficiency that cuts energy use by about 8 percent by 2020.6 To provide perspective, in the case of China, it has been estimated that if domestically available advanced technologies and equipment were used to retrofit all backward equipment much of this in the industrial sector total energy savings would reach almost one-third of present energy consumption.
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Department of Energy currently has over 20 protocols and annexes for cooperation with China on energy efficiency, renewable energy, fossil energy, nuclear energy, and climate change. ~ Zeng became Minister of the State Development Planning Commission in March 1998.
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There are very substantial multinational efforts in energy efficiency in China especially the Global Environmental Facility (GEF) with active public and private U.S.
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In this case coal consumption would decrease by about 100 billion kWh. Carbon emissions are reduced in this case by over 20 million metric tons per year.~° In a high energy demand scenario in the United States, however, coal-fired electric generating capacity might be needed to fill a portion of an additional 113 GW of demand growth.
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4. Current Coal Policies and Collaboration China is moving to rationalize its coal industry by limiting production from inefficient mines and banning the use of lower quality coal, as well changing the way it uses coal, with a particular effort addressed to lowering consumption of coal in areas in which harmful effects can be minimized or mitigated, such as in electric power generation.
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and overall will account for a third of total electricity generation capacity in 2020. Additions to domestic U.S.
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A few major gas pipeline projects have recently been completed or are nearing completion, including pipelines to Beijing, Shanghai, Xi'an, and other major urban centers not located in areas rich in gas resources. These are promising signs that the Chinese energy sector is moving toward the use of higher quality, cleaner gas to replace destructive coal burning, particularly in urban areas.
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In this analysis, electric power from natural gas could meet up to one-third China's future power needs at a lower total cost than using coal given the domestic production of low-cost gas and local manufacturing of gas turbines (Battelle Memorial Institute, 1998~. This scenario would entail dramatic policy reform and significant transfer of technology in both gas production and power generation.
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The U.S.-China Oil and Gas Industry Forum works to increase private-sector participation in China' s energy development. Key elements of the agenda of this public-private partnership group include issues of mutual access to information for firms interested in either country's markets; natural gas and oil policies that build on work started in the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC)
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2. China Petroleum Baseline Case Oil represents less than 17 percent of China's total primary energy consumption,~4 and China's crude oil production capacity of 160.7 million tons (7.1 EJ)
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In the high-technology case, total fuel consumption for the transportation sector is about 8 percent lower than the reference case level in 2020. Assuming successful technology development and subsequent marketplace adoption, the transport sector could reduce carbon emission by 100 million to 180 million metric tons per year (U.S.
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It is anticipated that during the time frame covered by this study the total nuclear capacity in the United States will decline from 99 GW in 1997, representing 18 percent of total electricity generation, to 50 GW in 2020,7 percent of total electricity generation (EIA, 1998~. This corresponds to the retirement of 65 nuclear units during this period, and in 2003 natural gas is expected to surpass nuclear as the nation's second largest source of electricity.
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went online providing 2.1 GW of nuclear capacity, 1.3 percent of total electric power generation. An additional 6.4 GW of capacity is under construction, including Qinshan phase two (two Chinese-design 600-MW PWRs)
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Although small by comparison with other developed nuclear programs, this program represents a significant commitment to nuclear power as an important component of China's future energy mix. Nuclear power plays a strategic role for the densely populated coastal areas.
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; in the other variant a new generation of safe, modular reactors (150 to 300 MW electric) fills the electricity needs of densely populated urban areas where conversion of renewable energy to electricity is impractical.
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energy future: by addressing carbon emissions and other environmental impacts associated with energy production; by decreasing reliance on imported energy sources; and by increasing exports of energy technologies. The initiative will address proliferation-resistant fuel cycles, new reactor designs, advanced nuclear fuels, new technologies for waste management, and fundamental nuclear science.
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In 1998 coal-fired plants accounted for about 52 percent of total electricity generation, nuclear 18 percent, natural gas 15 percent, hydra 9 percent, petroleum 4 percent, and renewables about 2 percent. In the United States, electricity demand is projected to be 4,345 billion kWh by 2020.
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Some of the significant obstacles to increased development of hydropower are high capital costs, long payback periods, inaccessibility (i.e., distance from population centers and energy demand) of hydro resources, and site-specific concerns over ecological consequences.
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Another trend is the increased efficiency of combustion, with goals of having coal-fired electricity attain 45 percent efficiency, and gas reaching about 60 percent. High economic growth projections for the United Statesi7 could lead to an increased electricity consumption of about 350 billion kWh in 2020.
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RENEWABLE ENERGY 1. United States Renewable Energy Baseline Case 39 In the United States, nonhydropower renewable energy is expected to contribute 3 percent of total electric capacity by 2020, up from 2 percent in 1997.
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of solar water heaters had been TABLE 1-3 Development Status of Renewable Energy in China (Institute of Electrical Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences) Energy Item Present Situation Biomass Biomass digesters About 5.25 million sets, 1.47 109 m3/year Firewood forest About 5.4 million hectares Mini-hydro Power stations >60,000 stations, about 17,000 MW 34.3 billion kWh Tidal Power station 8 stations, llMW Geothermal Power stations 5 stations, 28.78 MW Direct use 1.6981 x 104 TJ per year Wind Mini-Generators 150,000 sets, 15 MW Water lifting machines >2000 sets, 2.11 MW Wind farms 19 farms, 167 MW Solar PV cells ~8.8 MW Hot water heaters ~5 million m2 Solar houses (passive)
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Solar thermal power generation is still in the R&D stage. China has made great efforts to improve the efficiency and technology of biomass utilization through national programs for efficient stoves and rural house
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China's New and Renewable Energy Development Outline from 1996 to 2010 requires that commercial renewable energy consumption increase from the current level of less than 2 mice to about 120 mice by 2020.~8 Biomass comprises the bulk of the energy provided (about 90 mtce) , followed by solar thermal applii~ This figure does not include current noncommercial use of renewable energy.
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companies interested in developing renewable energy projects in China (other projects eligible under this program include energy efficiency and small-scale clean coal projects) .~9 Other ongoing efforts in renewable energy include: .
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