The National Academies Press

Currently Skimming:

5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper
Pages 121-154

The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.

From page 121... ... The purpose of this paper is to document the model used to project the future labor market for biomedical and behavioral scientists. Future labor market conditions are defined in terms of improvements or deteriorations from historical market conditions, and future demand conditions are examined in the context of the appropriate National Research Service Awards Acts variable -- that is, Ph.D. Read the entire page →
From page 122... ... that must be filled by new entrants. These 2See National Research Council, Summary Report 198 7 Doctorate Recipients from United States Universities (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1989) Read the entire page →
From page 123... ... Hospitals 5. Other New Hires= "Required" "Surviving" Supply of Scientists - ` ( 1 Readiness of the Labor Market Assessment Model 123 \~ 2. Read the entire page →
From page 124... ... For example, if the labor market deteriorated and job opportunities and wage growth were depressed, scientist outmobility would probably increase. However, historical data indicate very little variation in scientist unemployment and underemployment rates through time. Read the entire page →
From page 125... ... For practical purposes, all new entrants enter the system at career age one. The parameters of the model include: o Initial biological and career age distribution, o Biological age-specific death and retirement rates, and o Career age-specific net outmobility rates. Read the entire page →
From page 126... ... Table 2. Death and Retirement Rates Bio Age o ' O o o o o 0.0026 0.0753 0.1714 1 Retire Death Rate Rate 0.0011 0.0017 0.0027 0.0038 0.0063 0.0114 0.0179 0.0271 0.0378 0.05 SOURCE: Charlotte V Read the entire page →
From page 127... ... Net Mobility Rates Conceptually, the net outmobility rates of scientists are simply the gross occupational exits minus the gross occupational entrants by career age. Practically, these longitudinal movements are extremely difficult to measure given existing data sets. Read the entire page →
From page 128... ... S = Thus, for each group of scientists career age r, the estimated attrition leaves a surviving group of scientists in period t+1 that moves to the next career age r+l. Summing across all career ages gives the total attrition for the stock of scientists S and allows for the computation of the total surviving scientists in period t+1 (Figure 1~. Read the entire page →
From page 129... ... Age Biomed Mgt R&D Biomed Retired Ph.D.s -retire 1000 Sci Rate Rate <=5 31538 19695 17309 139 202517 202378 241 6-10 48171 2997S 2419 373 219649 219276 231 -1.79�X -8.18% 11-15 49162 26230 531 990 216355 215365 231 0.00% -6.69% 16-20 34190 16674 135 2279 156309 154030 223 -1.38% -5.06% 21-25 18257 8406 24 4041 90762 86721 211 -2.20% -4.52% 26-30 12726 5383 36 6428 66917 60489 211 0.03% -3~21% 31-35 8567 3790 24 13162 55630 42468 202 -1.6rX 0.10X 36-40 2743 1095 7 11772 26291 14519 189 -2.60% -6.51% 41+ 1295 495 0 6507 11286 4779 271 15.40% 13.24% Total 206649 111743 20485 45691 1045716 1000025 Average annual quit rate -0.8% SOURCE: 1983, 1985, arid 1987 Survey of Doctorate Recipients, National Research Council. Postdoctorates There are no explicit projections for postdoctorates. Read the entire page →
From page 130... ... As a means to summarize the relationship between these job openings and labor supply and to provide information about the future labor market, the concept of "vacancy ratios" was developed. Simply put, the vacancy ratio is the average number of job openings Figure 2. Read the entire page →
From page 131... ... SOURCE: Estimated by National Research Council. Read the entire page →
From page 132... ... or 0 or or or rid o or o 4= a, ~ or Q in O ~ O O ~� Q Cl) Read the entire page →
From page 133... ... production changes in proportion to enrollment assumptions and postdoctoral production remains constant. SOURCE: National Research Council. Read the entire page →
From page 134... ... Bio Age 1987 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 _1995 2000 1991 1995 2000 <30 1025 1903 2173 2453 2426 2489 2572 3282 20.r% 12~2% 9~4% 30~34 7484 11520 12769 14065 14597 15419 16344 21127 14~3% 10~3% 8~3% 35~39 9099 10019 10312 10635 11730 12725 13766 18926 3~2% 5~3% 5~8% 40~44 9545 9297 9227 9173 9383 9546 9733 13053 -0~8% 0~2% 2~4% 45 ~49 6475 6846 6941 7026 6958 6888 6828 7126 1 ~ 8% 0 ~ 7~o 0 ~ r/o 50~54 3919 4545 4708 4852 4921 4975 5020 5062 4er% 3.1% 2~0% 55~59 3104 3368 3437 3497 3698 3868 4009 4407 2~6% 3~2% 2.r/o 60-64 2148 2116 2102 2085 2212 2313 2392 2821 ~0~5% 1 ~4% 2e 1% 65-69 770 657 630 603 626 621 614 697 ~4~9% -2~8% -0~8% >=70 191 150 140 131 139 136 132 148 ~7~5% ~4~5% -2.0% Total 43760 50420 52440 54520 56690 58980 61410 76650 4~6% 4~3% 4~4% Percent Distribution <30 2~3% 3~8% 4e 1% 4~5% 4~3% 4~2% 4~2% 4~3% 30~34 17.1% 22~8% 24~3% 25~8% 25.r/o 26.1% 26~6% 27~6% 35~39 20~8% 19~9% 19ar/o 19~5% 20.r/o 21~6% 22~4% 24ar/o 40~44 21~8% 18~4% 17~6% 16~8% 16~6% 16~2% 15~8% 17~0% 45~49 14~8% 13~6% 13~2% 12~9% 12~3% 11.r/o 11 ~ 1% 9~3% 50~54 9~0% 9~0% 9~0% 8~9% 8ar/o 8~4% 8~2% 6~6% 55~59 7~1% 6ar/o 6~6% 6~4% 6~5% 6~6% 6~5% 5ar/o 60-64 4~9% 4~2% 4~0% 3~8% 3~9% 3~9% 3~9% 3~7% 65-69 1 a8% 1 a3% 1.2% 1 ~ 1% 1 ~ 1% 1 ~ 1% 1.0% 0~9% >=70 0~4% 0~3% 0~3% 0~2% 0~2% 0~2% 0~2% 0~2% 14~2% 12~5% 12~0% 11 a6% 11 a8% 11.8% 11 a6% 10~5% Average Mean Biological Age Annual Vacancies (base = 1990) 43~7 42~5 42~2 41~9 41~8 41~7 41~5 40~9 Totat Vacancies 1 991 1 995 2000 D&R 804 782 764 748 798 808 910 793 784 857 Quits 1529 1586 1642 1699 1765 1833 2247 1557 1675 1888 Growth 2010 2020 2080 2170 2290 2430 3550 2015 2167 2780 Total 4343 4388 4486 4617 4852 5071 6707 4365 4626 5525 Attrition Rates D&R 1.r/O 1~6% 1~5% 1~4% 1~4% 1~4% 1~2% Quits 3~2% 3~1% 3~1% 3~1% 3~1% 3~1% 3~1% Total 4~8% 4er/o 4~6% 4~5% 4~5% 4~5% 4~3% 134 Read the entire page →
From page 138... ... 0% 73 25471 15556 9915 1184.3 158698 23609 9190 14419 38.9 75 28332 18040 10292 1192.6 180485 27048 9825 17223 36.3 77 30384 17861 12523 1269 195353 31259 12884 18375 41.2 79 33566 18551 15015 1346.9 197091 33545 15006 18539 44.7 81 36482 19854 16628 1488.3 191996 35974 16397 19577 45 . 6 83 36963 20053 16910 1571 .3 190546 37403 1711 1 20291 45 .7 85 41032 21425 19607 1828.6 190291 41439 19802 21637 47.8 87 43025 20274 22751 2142.3 189218 44106 23323 20783 52.9 88 2206.5 189218 44495 23712 20783 53.3 89 2272.7 189218 44841 24058 20783 53.7 90 2340.9 189218 45147 24364 20783 54.0 91 2411 .1 189218 45416 24633 20783 54.2 92 2483.5 189218 45650 24867 20783 54.5 93 2558.0 189218 45852 25069 20783 54.7 94 2634.7 189218 46027 25244 20783 54.8 95 2713.8 189218 46176 25393 20783 55.0 96 2795.2 189218 46302 25519 20783 55.1 97 2879.0 189218 46409 25626 20783 55 .2 98 2965 .4 189218 46498 25715 20783 55 .3 99 3054.4 189218 46572 25789 20783 55.4 100 3146.0 189218 46634 25851 20783 55.4 NOTE: The Academic Projection Model uses the Singer model and assumes the following: The non-A&D faculty to student ratio (.1098 in 1987) Read the entire page →
From page 139... ... Industrial biomedical non-A&D employment is a function of drug industry constant dollar output as per Equation 2. This equation coefficient was applied to change in BLS drug output to determine projected employment. Read the entire page →
From page 140... ... This equation coefficient was applied to change in BLS government output to determine projected Employment. Read the entire page →
From page 141... ... Table A-4. All Other Employment, Biomedical Sciences Employment NonYear Total R&D Proiected Total Other R&D R&D Non- % R&D R&D Assumption 2.5% 8.0% 73 3941 1296 2645 3941 2645 1296 67.1 75 4368 1589 2779 4368 2779 1589 63.6 77 5215 2015 3200 5215 3200 2015 61.4 79 6102 2344 3758 6102 3758 2344 61.6 81 6348 2204 4144 6348 4144 2204 65.3 83 5964 2766 3198 5964 3198 2766 53.6 85 6852 3271 3581 6852 3581 3271 52.3 87 7626 3970 3656 7626 3656 3970 47.9 88 0.0482 0.0832 0.0233 8035 3748 4287 46.6 89 8472 3842 4630 45.3 90 8938 3938 5000 44.1 91 9437 4036 5400 42.8 92 9969 4137 5833 41.5 93 10540 4240 6299 40.2 94 11149 4346 6803 39.0 95 11802 4455 7347 37.7 96 12502 4566 7935 36.5 97 13250 4681 8570 35.3 98 14053 4798 9255 34.1 99 14913 4918 9996 33.0 100 15836 5041 10796 31.8 NOTE: The "All Other" sector is a simple trend model that projects assigned rates of growth for the R&D and non-A&D sectors through the year 2000. Read the entire page →
From page 142... ... Fac. Non- % R&D R&D Assumption -2.0% 73 9452 7380 2072 19900 9452 On 80 2072 21.9% 75 10863 9016 1847 23600 10863 9016 1847 17.0% 77 10905 8799 2106 25600 10905 8799 2106 19.3% 79 11538 8729 2809 26900 11538 8729 2809 24.3X 81 12586 9836 2750 28200 12586 9836 2750 21.9% 83 12404 9785 2619 29800 12404 9785 2619 21.1% 85 13221 10655 2566 31700 13221 10655 2566 19.4X 87 13058 9972 3086 31800 13058 9972 3086 23.6% 88 31732 13026 2745 10281 21.1% 89 31635 12986 2740 10246 21.1% 90 31444 12908 2724 10184 21.1% 91 31166 12794 2699 10094 21.1% 92 30806 12646 2668 9978 21.1% 93 30369 12466 2630 9836 21.1% 94 29860 12257 2586 9671 21.1% 95 29283 12021 2536 9484 21.1% 96 28644 11758 2481 9277 21.1% 97 27945 11472 2420 9051 21.1% 98 27192 11162 2355 8807 21.1% 99 26388 10832 2286 8547 21.1% 100 25536 10483 2212 8271 21.1% NOTE: The Academic Projection Model uses a quadratic regression of total behavioral faculty = f (behavioral graduate students) Read the entire page →
From page 143... ... The average proportion of total industry nonclinical psychology employment that is engaged in R&D for the 1973-1987 period (.06%) will remain fixed throughout the projection period. Read the entire page →
From page 144... ... was assigned constant over the projection period. Read the entire page →
From page 145... ... Table A-8. All Other Employment, Nonclinical Psychology Employment Proiected Non- Total Non- % Year Total R&D R&D Other R&D R&D R&D Assumption 3.4% -0.5% 7.2% 73 1043 407 636 1043 636 407 61.0 75 1159 520 639 1159 639 520 55.2 77 1221 684 537 1221 537 684 44.0 79 1409 833 576 1409 576 833 40.9 81 1433 875 558 1433 558 875 38.9 83 1413 1022 391 1413 391 1022 27.7 85 1497 1111 386 1497 386 1111 25.8 87 1662 1075 587 1662 587 1075 35.3 88 0.0338 0.0718 -0.005 1736 584 1152 33.6 89 1795 581 1235 32.4 90 1856 578 1324 31.2 91 1918 575 1419 30.0 92 1983 572 1521 28.9 93 2050 569 1630 27.8 94 2120 567 1747 26.7 95 2191 564 1872 25.7 96 2265 561 2007 24.8 97 2342 558 2151 23.8 98 2421 555 2305 22.9 99 2503 553 2471 22.1 100 2587 550 2648 21.2 NOTE: The "All Other" sector is a simple trend model that projects assigned rates of growth for the R&D and non-A&D sectors through the year 2000. Read the entire page →
From page 146... ... 0% 73 6135 5201 934 19900 6135 5201 934 15.2 75 7621 6559 1062 23600 7621 6559 1062 13.9 77 9239 7784 1455 25600 9239 7784 1455 15 .8 79 9568 7915 1653 26900 9568 7915 1653 17.3 81 9477 8074 1403 28200 9477 8074 1403 14.8 83 1 1002 9546 1456 29800 1 1002 9546 1456 13.2 85 11009 9530 1479 31700 11009 9530 1479 13.4 87 10767 9079 1688 31800 10767 9079 1688 15.7 88 31732 10741 1602 9139 14.9 89 31635 10708 1596 9113 14.9 90 31444 10644 1586 9058 14 .9 91 31166 10550 1572 8978 14.9 92 30806 10428 1554 8874 14 .9 93 30369 10280 1532 8748 14 . 9 94 29860 10108 1506 8602 14.9 95 29283 9912 1477 8435 14 .9 96 28644 9696 1445 8251 14.9 97 27945 9459 1409 8050 14.9 98 27192 9204 1371 7833 14 .9 99 26388 8932 1331 7601 14.9 100 25536 8644 1288 7356 14.9 NOTE: The Academic Projection Model uses a quadratic regression of total behavioral faculty = f (behavioral graduate students) Read the entire page →
From page 147... ... Table A-10. All Other EmployTent, Other Behavioral Sciences Employment Non Year Total R&D R&D Proi ected Total Non- % Ind R&D R&D R&D Assurnpt i on 3.0% 0.07 0.1491 73 456 179 277 456 277 179 60.8 75 579 201 378 579 378 201 65.4 77 837 328 509 837 509 328 60.9 79 1277 450 827 1277 827 450 64.8 81 1343 524 819 1343 819 524 61.0 83 1476 1028 448 1476 448 1028 30.3 85 1680 1308 372 1680 372 1308 22.2 87 1969 1254 715 1969 715 1254 36.3 88 0.1101 0.1491 0.0700 2206 765 1441 34.7 89 2474 819 1656 33.1 90 2779 876 1903 31.5 91 3124 937 2186 30.0 92 3515 1003 2512 28.5 93 3960 1073 2887 27.1 94 4465 1148 3317 25.7 95 5040 1229 3812 24.4 96 5695 1315 4380 23.1 97 6440 1407 5033 21.8 98 7289 1505 5783 20.7 99 8256 1611 6646 19.5 100 9360 1723 7637 18.4 NOTE: The "All Other" projection model is a simple trend model that grows 1987 ernployTent to the year 2000 assuming that 1973-1987 historical growth rates in the R&D (7 percent) Read the entire page →
From page 148... ... NOTE: Growth assumptions regarding enrollments in behavioral sciences were provided by the corr~nittee. Faculty = f (behavioral graduate students) Read the entire page →
From page 149... ... : 1973-1987 3~1 2~6 3~1 2~6 3~1 2~6 1987-1991 ~0~4 ~0~9 0~9 0~3 1~9 1~0 1987-2000 0~0 -0~2 1.0 0~7 2~1 1~6 NOTE: This table does not include postdoctoral employment or unemployment. SOURCE: Estimated by National Research Council. Read the entire page →
From page 150... ... o o s o 4J ~J 3 1 0 0 C~ C~ S 0` ~ 3 1 0 r~ 0 0` I"1 Ql "1 i Q I CY o 0 m1 o o o o 0 o~ ~ o o 4~ a, ~n cn JJ _ cn cn o ~n o ~ o~ o~ o s ~ ~n cn ~ ~ o L) Read the entire page →
From page 151... ... (9) Behav Total Beh Sci Annual Annual Career R&D & Postdoc Total Ph.D.s per Quit R&D Quit Age Behav Mgt R&D _ Behav Retired Ph.D.s -Retire 1000 Sci Rate Rate <=5 41948 5607 1834 139 201127 200988 218 6-10 43488 6282 343 373 217900 217527 201 -3.1% -7.5X 11-15 36561 4612 127 990 215219 214229 171 -6.3% -12.0% 16-20 23923 2915 68 2279 156711 154432 155 -3.8% -5.3XO 21-25 13410 1463 51 4041 91497 87456 154 -0.4% -4.3% 26-30 10323 1271 38 6428 67207 60779 170 4.2% 9.1% 31-35 6155 950 8 13162 55931 42769 144 -6.5% 1.6% 36-40 1456 261 0 11772 26355 14583 100 -13.rX -8.6% 41+ 303 43 0 6507 11240 4733 64 -16.3% -23.8% SOURCE: 1983, 1985, and 1987 Survey of Doctorate Recipients, National Research Council. Read the entire page →
From page 152... ... SOURCE: Estimated by National Research Council. Read the entire page →
From page 153... ... to to to J 3 1 0 0 0 I~ ~ ~ ~ ~ sat C) Read the entire page →
From page 154... ... SOURCE: National Research Council. Read the entire page →

From page 121...

... The purpose of this paper is to document the model used to project the future labor market for biomedical and behavioral scientists. Future labor market conditions are defined in terms of improvements or deteriorations from historical market conditions, and future demand conditions are examined in the context of the appropriate National Research Service Awards Acts variable -- that is, Ph.D.

5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper Pages 121-154

5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper
Pages 121-154