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Suggested Citation:"8 Next Steps." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Enhancing Federal Clean Energy Innovation: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25973.
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8

Next Steps

The final session of the workshop featured a keynote address from former Secretary of Energy Ernest J. Moniz, now with Energy Futures Initiative. Moniz described the characteristics of a successful climate plan and laid out the technological and political coordination necessary for a large-scale energy transition. Following his remarks, Cheryl Martin, Harwich Partners, moderated a discussion with Arati Prabhakar, Actuate, and Norman Augustine, Lockheed Martin (retired).

ERNEST J. MONIZ

President and CEO, Energy Futures Initiative

Clean energy technology science has progressed significantly since the 2015 Paris Climate Conference (COP21), and U.S. ambitions must increase to match, Moniz stated. This includes setting a goal of a net-zero emissions economy by 2050 and the aspiration of a net-negative economy beyond that time.

Moniz described the six key characteristics that a successful climate action plan must feature:

  1. Systematic change cannot occur without broad coalition building. This includes labor, business, nongovernmental organizations, the financial sectors, religious and military leaders, the public and private sectors, and Democrats and Republicans. To do so will require pragmatism.
Suggested Citation:"8 Next Steps." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Enhancing Federal Clean Energy Innovation: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25973.
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  1. Regional solutions featuring a strong social justice agenda will be essential.
  2. An All-of-the-Above Energy Strategy that leverages every option available is required to achieve deep decarbonization. Achieving net-zero goals will require renewables, energy efficiency, storage, advanced nuclear, carbon capture utilization and sequestration, and hydrogen technologies in addition to infrastructure developments and secure supply chains.
  3. Jobs are essential, especially in the face of the enormous COVID19 impact. Data shows that in the 5 years pre-COVID, energy sector job growth was double that of the whole economy. This indicates that investment in the energy transition will be highly effective in generating jobs, easing dislocations from declining industries, and, in turn, creating political tailwinds.
  4. COVID-19 has exacerbated supply chain vulnerabilities developed over the past few decades. Strategically building domestic supply chains in key areas will be very important in building a climate action plan.
  5. Net-zero goals cannot be met without major innovation breakthroughs. “The 2020s need to be a supercharged innovation decade so that new technologies are at the necessary stage in the 30s to begin scaling,” said Moniz. This will require doubling or tripling federal clean energy investment from $7 billion now to $140 billion by 2030.

Energy Future Initiative’s report Advancing the Landscape of Clean Energy Innovation,1 Mission Innovation’s “Innovation Challenges,”2 and Breakthrough Energy’s “Grand Challenges and Technical Quests”3 feature significant overlap regarding the structuring of a clean energy agenda. In addition to energy technologies, leadership and innovation in areas such as large-scale computing, big data analytics, synthetic biology, sensors and monitoring, artificial intelligence, materials by design, and additive manufacturing will continue to be essential.

Moniz continued that the United States needs to use all available policy tools to accelerate demonstration and deployment. Public-private partnership is necessary to help guide emerging technologies, such as advanced nuclear fission and fusion, over the multiple valleys of death

___________________

1 D. Yergin and E.J. Moniz, 2019, Advancing the Landscape of Clean Energy Innovation, https://ihsmarkit.com/Info/0219/clean-energy-innovation.html.

2 Mission Innovation, “Innovation Challenges,” http://mission-innovation.net/our-work/innovation-challenges/.

3 Breakthrough Energy, “Grand Challenges and Technical Quests,” https://www.breakthroughenergy.org/landscape/.

Suggested Citation:"8 Next Steps." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Enhancing Federal Clean Energy Innovation: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25973.
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between demonstration and commercialization. The DOE Loan Program Office (LPO), once responsible for kick-starting the utility solar sector, has $40 billion of unused authority. Another tool is tax credits, Moniz added.

Much coordination will be needed to manage this aggressive push, Moniz said, and he listed a few specific approaches. The White House must leverage its convening power to coordinate multiagency activities. The highly successful Advanced Research Projects Agency—Energy (ARPA-E) business model can be utilized more, including integrating follow-on grants. Rigorous project management regimes used in other parts of the energy portfolio should be transferred systematically to demonstration projects. There needs to be a government-wide advanced manufacturing initiative, and the Office of Technology Transitions (OTT) must be enhanced. In addition to coordination across the administration, congressional organization is needed to support the technology portfolio and associated policy, particularly in the highly stovepiped appropriations process.

Transitioning back to COP21, Moniz referenced the pledge from 20 countries to double public research and development (R&D) investment, over 5 years, under Mission Innovation. This pledge signified a global understanding that technology innovation is essential to climate solutions and set the groundwork for increased international collaboration. In addition to the national commitments, the private sector remains ready to take bigger gambles to help new technologies reach scale.

DISCUSSION

Following Moniz’s remarks, Martin directed questions to Moniz that covered job creation, the impact of COVID-19, international dynamics, and regional solutions. In an open dialogue, Moniz, Prabhakar, and Augustine discussed the scope of the climate crisis and managing risk.

Scope of the Problem

Augustine wondered how to galvanize action to address the unprecedented increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide. He noted that market shares of coal, oil, and gas still dominate primary energy consumption, while renewables account for far less (Figure 8.1). Prabhakar added that she is optimistic for two reasons. First, Pew Research Center’s recent poll indicates that two-thirds of Americans believe the government is not doing enough to address climate change. Second, Prabhakar noted that the United States has a long history of rising to pressing challenges, albeit often only after exhausting all other alternatives. For instance, national security is an area where the United States manages many threats that

Suggested Citation:"8 Next Steps." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Enhancing Federal Clean Energy Innovation: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25973.
×
Image
FIGURE 8.1 Global energy consumption by market share of source from 1800–2018. Market share of traditional biomass has declined, and coal, oil, and gas have increased. SOURCE: Norman Augustine, Lockheed Martin (retired), presentation to the workshop; from The Economist, 2020, “The World’s Energy System Must Be Transformed Completely,” May 23, https://www.economist.com/schoolsbrief/2020/05/23/the-worlds-energy-system-must-be-transformed-completely; © The Economist Group Limited, London.

cannot be fully predicted and aggressively takes risks to come up with solutions.

Moniz noted that market shares do not accurately reflect the total amount of energy being produced from each source. For example, the absolute amount of conventional biomass consumed has remained the same since the 19th century. However, its market share has declined due to the growing consumption of other energy sources.

Moniz was confident that another energy transition is possible with coherent leadership and public commitment. Rallying commitment will involve leveraging the bipartisan support for innovation and centering on job creation, domestic supply chains, and social equity. He expressed support for charges on energy use to fund the approximately $10 billion

Suggested Citation:"8 Next Steps." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Enhancing Federal Clean Energy Innovation: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25973.
×

per year innovation agenda. Moniz said a 10 cents per gallon of gasoline fee alone would produce $4 billion per year in revenue.

Prabhakar said that the combination of scale and urgency presents the greatest challenge. After experiencing unprecedented growth, wind and solar still only mitigate less than 5 percent of global emissions. In order for technologies to reach a meaningful scale in the next 30 years, a systems-wide view is required. Efforts must concentrate not only on basic R&D but also on demonstrations, deployments, and policy. Prabhakar advocated for a strategy that embraces experimentation. To find the recipe for success, experimentation is required in both technology innovation and in how policies are developed, taxes are structured, and standards are established.

Moniz added that renewable energy generation must be compounded each decade to reach 2050 emissions objectives. Therefore, the 2020s must supercharge the development and scaling of a range of technologies. Now is the time to begin building industries for carbon sequestration and advanced nuclear for instance, so that they are materialized by 2030 and ready for the next two cycles of scaling.

Jobs

Moniz included a focus on jobs as a key characteristic of a successful energy transition, recalled Martin. She asked Moniz to expand on how to drive forward the reskilling of the workforce in declining and emerging industries. Moniz highlighted the overlap in skill set and geography of workers in the oil industry and the emerging carbon capture and sequestration industry. Retraining, expanded apprenticeship programs, and expanded government support of strong community college programs and minority-serving institutions will be necessary.

Effect of COVID-19

Asked about the impact of the pandemic on the advancement of the clean technology agenda, Moniz was optimistic that it would not alter the course of the transition to a decarbonized economy. At the beginning of the pandemic, electricity demand decreased 10 percent, quoted Moniz. During that period, the market share of renewables and natural gas increased, and coal was the first casualty. He acknowledged that this is not a structural change, but also predicted that the reduction in oil demand will not bounce back as elastically as electricity. Moniz expressed his belief that the pandemic was likely a stimulus for actions that oil companies were already planning to undertake in shifting toward gas and renewables.

Suggested Citation:"8 Next Steps." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Enhancing Federal Clean Energy Innovation: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25973.
×

International Dynamics

Martin noted that while the United States has a robust innovation pipeline, it falters when moving technologies to scale. She asked how to leverage global partnerships to help technologies reach scale while acknowledging the tension between competition and cooperation. Moniz replied that large-scale carbon management technologies, such as carbon capture and sequestration, are “technologies of the commons,” with much potential for collaboration. For technologies that possess more proprietary opportunity, the United States should collaborate on the basic research stages. Moniz also recognized that the United States would benefit from collaboration on hydrogen, as many other nations have made more significant progress in this area.

Moniz added that international partnerships such as Mission Innovation can be used to encourage less-developed economies to reach lower-carbon pathways. Augustine asked Moniz to elaborate on solutions to curbing emissions from emerging economies and the least-developed nations. Moniz noted that emissions from these nations are relatively small. Reduction efforts should be focused on the top emitters—the most-developed nations—and not the impoverished. However, the United States can help those nations develop economically on lower-carbon pathways when appropriate, perhaps by encouraging the use of natural gas instead of coal.

Regional Solutions

Martin then asked how the ongoing dynamic between the federal, state, and local levels will play out to best accelerate clean energy innovation. Moniz answered that lacking federal policy leadership on innovation, states and cities will continue to play a critical role. However, absent of federal policy, the advancement of technologies will be limited. For example, deployment and scaling will be challenging without uniform standards and regulation.

Regional portfolios will vary tremendously, said Moniz. Renewable resources are extremely variable across the country. This may be possible to overcome with national scale infrastructure, such as high-voltage transmission lines, but it has not proved easy to accomplish large-scale projects like this. Distributed power may end up playing a larger role. Moniz summarized that these challenges will require pragmatic solutions that preserve optionality.

Managing Risk

Prabhakar stressed that the failure of some technologies is expected and inevitable. In terms of risk management, the biggest risk is not

Suggested Citation:"8 Next Steps." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Enhancing Federal Clean Energy Innovation: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25973.
×

investing in innovative technologies at all. Creating optionality is critical to reducing that risk, as some technologies will fail and some will be eclipsed by a better choice.

Augustine agreed that risks will always be embedded in the solution set. To help overcome risk and better enable scaling of technologies, he proposed the formation of a nongovernmental organization. Similar in structure to In-Q-Tel, the organization would select ideas demonstrating technical viability and invest alongside the government to achieve scale. Run by a board of directors, the organization could quickly give grants, create contracts, or take equity positions, explained Augustine. In return, the organization would retain some rights to the technology intellectual property to make it available to others. Augustine acknowledged that some of the technologies will indeed fail, but that is intrinsic to preserving optionality.

Moniz added that Energy Futures Initiative has proposed a similar idea of a quasi-governmental corporation handling a portfolio of demonstration projects to prove techno-economic performance. Perhaps this quasi-governmental corporation could have loan authority to do both equity and debt financing. Creative solutions will be extremely vital to achieving our goals, he concluded.

Suggested Citation:"8 Next Steps." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Enhancing Federal Clean Energy Innovation: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25973.
×
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Suggested Citation:"8 Next Steps." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Enhancing Federal Clean Energy Innovation: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25973.
×
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Suggested Citation:"8 Next Steps." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Enhancing Federal Clean Energy Innovation: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25973.
×
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Suggested Citation:"8 Next Steps." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Enhancing Federal Clean Energy Innovation: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25973.
×
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Suggested Citation:"8 Next Steps." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Enhancing Federal Clean Energy Innovation: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25973.
×
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Suggested Citation:"8 Next Steps." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Enhancing Federal Clean Energy Innovation: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25973.
×
Page 79
Suggested Citation:"8 Next Steps." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. Enhancing Federal Clean Energy Innovation: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/25973.
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A widespread and rapid transition to a low-carbon energy system by 2050 is essential to keep pace with ambitious policy goals and avoid the worst consequences of climate change. Innovation is necessary to lower costs and improve performance of existing technologies and to develop new clean energy options that address challenges in harder-to-decarbonize sectors. To examine means by which the U.S. federal government can rise to this challenge, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine hosted a virtual workshop series "Enhancing Federal Clean Energy Innovation" on July 27 to August 7, 2020. The workshop featured timely, action-orientated assessments of how to strengthen development and penetration of new clean energy technologies. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions that occurred over the course of the workshop.

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