NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility of advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
This report and the committee were supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsor.
This study was supported by Contract No. 50-DGNC-3-00016 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 98-84433
International Standard Book Number 0-309-05725-6
Additional copies of this report are available from:
National Academy Press
2101 Constitution Ave., NW Box 285 Washington, D.C. 20055 800-624-6242 202-334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) http://www.nap.edu
Copyright 1998 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America.
Committee on Fish Stock Assessment Methods
RICHARD DERISO (Cochairman),
Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission, La Jolla, California
TERRANCE QUINN (Cochairman),
University of Alaska Fairbanks, Juneau
JEREMY COLLIE,
University of Rhode Island, Narragansett
RAY HILBORN,
University of Washington, Seattle
CYNTHIA JONES,
Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia
BRUCE LINDSAY,
Pennsylvania State University, University Park
ANA PARMA,
International Pacific Halibut Commission, Seattle, Washington
SAUL SAILA,
University of Rhode Island, Narragansett
LYNDA SHAPIRO,
University of Oregon, Charleston
STEPHEN JOSEPH SMITH,
Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, Canada
CARL WALTERS,
University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
Staff
EDWARD R. URBAN, JR., Study Director
LORA TAYLOR, Senior Project Assistant
Ocean Studies Board
KENNETH BRINK (Chairman),
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
ALICE ALLDREDGE,
University of California, Santa Barbara
DAVID BRADLEY,
Pennsylvania State University, State College
WILLIAM CURRY,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
ELLEN DRUFFEL,
University of California, Irvine
RANA FINE,
University of Miami, Florida
CARL FRIEHE,
University of California, Irvine
ROBERT GAGOSIAN,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
SUSAN HANNA,
Oregon State University, Corvallis
JOHN HOBBIE,
Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
EILEEN HOFMANN,
Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia
JOHN KNAUSS,
University of Rhode Island, Narragansett
ROBERT KNOX,
University of California, San Diego
RAY KRONE,
University of California, Davis
LOUIS LANZEROTTI,
Bell Laboratories, Lucent Technologies, Murray Hill, New Jersey
JOHN MAGNUSON,
University of Wisconsin, Madison
WILLIAM MERRELL,
The H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and the Environment, Washington, D.C.
B. GREGORY MITCHELL,
University of California, San Diego
NEIL OPDYKE,
University of Florida, Gainesville
MICHAEL ORBACH,
Duke University Marine Laboratory, Beaufort, North Carolina
TERRANCE QUINN,
University of Alaska Fairbanks, Juneau
C. BARRY RALEIGH,
University of Hawaii, Honolulu
JAMES RAY,
Shell Oil Company, Houston, Texas
GEORGE SOMERO,
Stanford University, Pacific Grove, California
PAUL STOFFA,
University of Texas, Austin
Staff
MORGAN GOPNIK, Director
M. ELIZABETH CLARKE, Associate Director
EDWARD R. URBAN, JR., Program Officer
DAN WALKER, Program Officer
ROBIN MORRIS, Administrative Associate
GLENN MERRILL, Research Associate
LORA TAYLOR, Senior Project Assistant
JENNIFER SWERDA, Project Assistant
SHARI MAGUIRE, Project Assistant
ANN CARLISLE, Project Assistant
Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources
GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chairman),
University of Virginia, Charlottesville
PATRICK R. ATKINS,
Aluminum Company of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
JAMES P. BRUCE,
Canadian Climate Program Board, Ottawa, Ontario
WILLIAM L. FISHER,
University of Texas, Austin
JERRY F. FRANKLIN,
University of Washington, Seattle
THOMAS E. GRAEDEL,
Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
DEBRA KNOPMAN,
Progressive Foundation, Washington, D.C.
KAI N. LEE,
Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts
PERRY L. MCCARTY,
Stanford University, California
JUDITH E. MCDOWELL,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
RICHARD A. MESERVE,
Covington & Burling, Washington, D.C.
S. GEORGE PHILANDER,
Princeton University, New Jersey
RAYMOND A. PRICE,
Queen's University at Kingston, Ontario
THOMAS C. SCHELLING,
University of Maryland, College Park
ELLEN SILBERGELD,
University of Maryland Medical School, Baltimore
VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL,
Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida
E-AN ZEN,
University of Maryland, College Park
Staff
MYRON UMAN, Acting Executive Director
GREGORY SYMMES, Assistant Executive Director
JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative Officer
SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate
MARQUITA SMITH, Administrative Assistant/Technology Analyst
This page in the original is blank. |
Preface
Global marine fish harvest has plateaued and many important commercial stocks have been depleted. The Ocean Studies Board (OSB), at the request of the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), has provided advice designed to improve management of marine fisheries in the United States (NRC, 1994a). Many of the changes suggested in the 1994 report Improving the Management of U.S. Marine Fisheries were incorporated in the reauthorized Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act (MSFCMA) in 1996.
NMFS also has asked the OSB for advice on specific issues of Atlantic bluefin tuna population biology; the OSB presented its results in another 1994 report, An Assessment of Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (NRC, 1994b). Following the publication of that report, there was a widespread expression of the need for reviews of several other specific stock assessments. NMFS responded by requesting a broad review of the methods used in the United States for stock assessments. The results of that review are presented in this report.
This study would not have been possible without the efforts of NMFS scientists who carried out blind runs of data provided by the study committee and participated in the committee's meetings. The cooperation between academic and agency scientists was commendable and actually led to advances in the state of the art of fish stock assessments. The OSB offers sincere thanks to NMFS analysts for their considerable efforts, including Ray Conser, Jeff Fujioka, Wendy Gabriel, Phil Goodyear, Jim Ianelli, Rick Methot, Jerry Pella, Clay Porch, Joe Powers, Mike Prager, Victor Restrepo, Gerald Scott, and Mike Sigler. Other individuals also contributed to the committee's work and deserve the thanks of the committee and the OSB: Jie Zheng (Alaska Department of Fish and Game), Andre Punt (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Australia), and David Fournier (Otter Research Ltd.).
The results of this study will serve as an important foundation for the National Research Council review of the U.S. Northeast fisheries stock assessments that was mandated by Congress in 1996 as part of the MSFCMA reauthorization. The recommendations presented herein should also be useful to ongoing international activities related to fish stock assessments, such as those of the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea.
Kenneth Brink
Chairman, Ocean Studies Board
This page in the original is blank. |