Living on an ACTIVE Earth
Perspectives on Earthquake Science
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported through endowment funds provided by the National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Living on an active earth : perspectives on earthquake science / Committee on the Science of Earthquakes, Board on Earth Sciences and Resources, Division on Earth and Life Studies, National Research Council of the National Academies.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-309-06562-3 (Book)
ISBN 0309-50631-X (PDF)
1. Seismology—Research. 2. Earthquake hazard analysis. I. National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on the Science of Earthquakes.
QE539 .L58 2002
551.22'07'2073—dc21a
2002151540
Additional copies of this report are available from the
National Academies Press,
500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu
Cover: Different perspectives on earthquake science. Left: Global tectonic map, generated from digital ocean bathymetry and land topography data. SOURCE: NOAA National Geophysical Data Center. Upper right: Geologists examining fault slip from the 1954 Dixie Valley-Fairview Peaks, Nevada, earthquake. SOURCE: Photograph by Karl Steinbrugge, Steinbrugge Collection, Earthquake Engineering Research Center, University of California, Berkeley. Center right: Synthetic aperture radar interferometry image of deformation caused by the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake. SOURCE: D. Sandwell, L. Sichoix, A. Jacobs, R. Scharroo, B. Minster, Y. Bock, P. Jamason, E. Price, and H. Zebker, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, La Jolla, Calif. Bottom right: Rubble of collapsed buildings in the town of Golcuk, Turkey, resulting from the 1999 Izmit earthquake. SOURCE: Photograph by Enric Marti. Copyright (1999) Associated Press.
Copyright 2003 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
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COMMITTEE ON THE SCIENCE OF EARTHQUAKES
THOMAS H. JORDAN, Chair,
University of Southern California, Los Angeles
GREGORY BEROZA,
Stanford University, Stanford, California
C. ALLIN CORNELL,
Stanford University, Portola Valley, California
C. B. CROUSE,
URS Corporation, Seattle, Washington
JAMES DIETERICH,
U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California
ARTHUR FRANKEL,
U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado
DAVID D. JACKSON,
University of California, Los Angeles
ARCH JOHNSTON,
University of Memphis, Tennessee
HIROO KANAMORI,
California Institute of Technology, Pasadena
JAMES S. LANGER,
University of California, Santa Barbara
MARCIA K. MCNUTT,
Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, Moss Landing, California
JAMES R. RICE,
Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
BARBARA A. ROMANOWICZ,
University of California, Berkeley
KERRY SIEH,
California Institute of Technology, Pasadena
PAUL G. SOMERVILLE,
URS Corporation, Pasadena, California
National Research Council Staff
Anne M. Linn, Study Director (from September 2000)
Tamara L. Dickinson, Study Director (May to November 1998)
Ellen Kappel, Study Director (July 1999 to January 2000)
Charles Meade, Study Director (until January 1998)
Monica Lipscomb, Research Assistant (from October 2001)
Verna J. Bowen, Administrative Assistant (from June 1998)
Steven Shannon, Project Assistant (until October 1996)
Susan Sherwin, Project Assistant (October 1996 to June 1998)
BOARD ON EARTH SCIENCES AND RESOURCES
RAYMOND JEANLOZ, Chair,
University of California, Berkeley
JILL BANFIELD,
University of California, Berkeley
STEVEN R. BOHLEN,
Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Washington, D.C.
VICKI J. COWART,
Colorado Geological Survey, Denver
DAVID L. DILCHER,
University of Florida, Gainesville
ADAM M. DZIEWONSKI,
Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
WILLIAM L. GRAF,
University of South Carolina, Columbia
RHEA GRAHAM,
New Mexico Interstate Stream Commission, Albuquerque
GEORGE M. HORNBERGER,
University of Virginia, Charlottesville
DIANNE R. NIELSON,
Utah Department of Environmental Quality, Salt Lake City
MARK SCHAEFER,
NatureServe, Arlington, Virginia
BILLIE L. TURNER II,
Clark University, Worcester, Massachusetts
THOMAS J. WILBANKS,
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee
National Research Council Staff
ANTHONY R. DE SOUZA, Director
TAMARA L. DICKINSON, Senior Program Officer
DAVID A. FEARY, Senior Program Officer
ANNE M. LINN, Senior Program Officer
PAUL M. CUTLER, Program Officer
KRISTEN L. KRAPF, Program Officer
KERI H. MOORE, Program Officer
LISA M. VANDEMARK, Program Officer
YVONNE P. FORSBERGH, Research Assistant
MONICA R. LIPSCOMB, Research Assistant
EILEEN MCTAGUE, Research Assistant
VERNA J. BOWEN, Administrative Associate
JENNIFER T. ESTEP, Administrative Associate
RADHIKA S. CHARI, Senior Project Assistant
KAREN L. IMHOF, Senior Project Assistant
SHANNON L. RUDDY, Senior Project Assistant
TERESIA K. WILMORE, Project Assistant
WINFIELD SWANSON, Editor
Acknowledgments
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Brian Atwater, University of Washington, Seattle
Bruce A. Bolt, University of California, Berkeley
Adam M. Dziewonski, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
J. Freeman Gilbert, University of California, San Diego
James E. Monsees, Parsons Brinckerhoff, Inc., Orange, California
Stuart Nishenko, PG&E, San Francisco, California
Terry Tullis, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Clarence R. Allen, professor emeritus, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena.
Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
Preface
Recent earthquakes in California, Japan, Taiwan, and Turkey have demonstrated the devastating consequences of seismicity in large urban areas. Vulnerability to these seismic hazards can be reduced through scientific research in support of mitigation. However, applying this research to mitigation of seismic hazards has been a challenge. The study presented in this report was motivated by questions surrounding the effectiveness of the “knowledge-based” strategy taken by the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP). A series of critiques in the early to mid 1990s, including a 1995 report by the congressional Office of Technology Assessment (1), concluded that the NEHRP approach short-changed practical measures for mitigating earthquake losses, creating an “implementation gap” in which risk-reduction efforts lagged far behind the knowledge base created by basic research. A preliminary review by the National Research Council (NRC) Committee on Seismology indicated that the debate over the structure of a national program for earthquake risk reduction lacked adequate information about the prospects for, and potential payoffs from, long-term basic research and the relationship of current research activities, both basic and applied, to mitigation efforts.
Based on this assessment, a proposal was submitted to the National Academies, which established the Committee on the Science of Earthquakes and provided a grant from its endowment funds to
assess the current scientific understanding of earthquake processes. In its work, the study committee will prepare a comprehensive summary of the multidisciplinary research throughout the earth and physical sciences on the origins, properties, and consequences of earthquakes, assess
the research goals for the field of earthquake science, particularly as they support engineering and policy efforts to improve seismic mitigation strategies, and identify strategies to improve the communication of earthquake science to engineers, policy makers, and the general public.
This report is meant to provide a technical reference for scientists, engineers, and policy makers concerned with understanding earthquakes and reducing society’s vulnerability to seismic hazards.
To gather information for the study the committee met with representatives from government agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and private sector companies concerned with earthquake research and engineering, hazard mitigation, and earthquake insurance. Briefings were provided by AXA Reinsurance, the Department of Defense, Department of Energy, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Institute of Standards and Technology, National Science Foundation, Office of Science and Technology Policy, and U.S. Geological Survey. Input from the broader Earth science community was solicited through an editorial in Seismological Research Letters (2) and the committee’s web site, which included a series of white papers on different earthquake topics. Altogether the committee met eight times to gather information and prepare its report.
The committee thanks the following individuals for making presentations or providing background material, figures, or other input: Cliff Astill, Aykut Barka, Harley Benz, Yehuda Ben-Zion, Margaret Boettcher, Steve Bratt, Robert Bucknam, George Budd, Rhett Butler, Wuchen Chi, Rob Clayton, Paula Davidson, James Dolan, Douglas Dreger, John Filson, Chris Goldfinger, Tom Henyey, Steve Hickman, Ken Hudnut, Jeff Kimball, Richard Krimm, Michael Mahoney, Jeff McGuire, Robert Nadeau, Amos Nur, Elaine Padovani, Robert Page, Gilles Peltzer, Eliza Richardson, Charles Rubin, Ronald Sack, Charles Sammis, Kaye Shedlock, David Simpson, Shyam Sunder, Louis Walter, Jim Whitcomb, Cecily Wolfe, Nicholas Woodward, Richard Wright, Howard Zebker, and Mark Zoback. The committee also thanks the staff of the National Research Council for their support of this project. Charles Meade obtained funding for the study and helped the committee generate most of the raw material for this report before he left the NRC to pursue a new career. Tammy Dickinson and Ellen Kappel provided figures and interim support to the committee. The committee is particularly grateful to Anne Linn, whose outstanding efforts brought this study to a successful conclusion.
Thomas H. Jordan
Chair