A Workshop Summary
Communicating Uncertainties in Weather and Climate Information
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this summary was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the group responsible for the planning of the workshop were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
Support for this project was provided by the National Science Foundation and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Grant No. ATM-0135923, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under Grant No. X-82875501, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under Contract No. 50-DGNA-1-90024. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the sponsors or their subagencies.
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Cover: Tornado near Verden, Oklahoma, as it progressed on to Oklahoma City, May 3, 1999. Copyright by Howard B.Bluestein.
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BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
ERIC J.BARRON (chair),
Pennsylvania State University, University Park
SUSAN K.AVERY,*
University of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder
RAYMOND J.BAN,
The Weather Channel, Inc., Atlanta, Georgia
HOWARD B.BLUESTEIN,
University of Oklahoma, Norman
STEVEN F.CLIFFORD,
University of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder
GEORGE L.FREDERICK,
Vaisala, Inc., Boulder, Colorado
JUDITH L.LEAN,
Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, D.C.
MARGARET A.LEMONE,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
MARIO J.MOLINA,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
ROGER A.PIELKE, JR.,*
University of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder
MICHAEL J.PRATHER,
University of California, Irvine
WILLIAM J.RANDEL,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
ROBERT T.RYAN,*
WRC-TV, Washington, D.C.
THOMAS F.TASCIONE,
Sterling Software, Bellevue, Nebraska
ROBERT A.WELLER,*
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
ERIC F.WOOD,*
Princeton University, New Jersey
Ex Officio Members
EUGENE M.RASMUSSON,
University of Maryland, College Park
ERIC F.WOOD,
Princeton University, New Jersey
NRC Staff
CHRIS ELFRING, Director
ELBERT W. (JOE) FRIDAY, JR., Senior Scholar
LAURIE S.GELLER, Senior Program Officer
PETER A.SCHULTZ, Senior Program Officer
VAUGHAN C.TUREKIAN, Program Officer
ELIZABETH A.GALINIS, Project Assistant
ROB GREENWAY, Project Assistant
DIANE L.GUSTAFSON, Administrative Associate
ROBIN MORRIS, Financial Officer
Preface
Each year, typically in the summer, the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate selects a topic for special study (often called our “summer study"). Our goal is to organize an informal workshop where scientists and agency staff can share information about current issues in the atmospheric sciences, meteorology, and climate. These events are a forum for frank discussions and creative interaction, and sometimes lead us to develop more in-depth activities.
Based on a suggestion from the Federal Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research, a committee chaired by the Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) whose members include senior policy executives of the 14 federal agencies that are producers or users of weather and climate information, the topic selected for the August 2001 summer study was the growing concern for the proper communication of uncertainties in weather and climate information. We elected to use a series of case studies to look at actual examples of the communication of weather information and to see if these examples could provide insights that might lead, in time, to new ideas and approaches.
This report is the product of the workshop held at the J.Erik Jonsson Woods Hole Center in Woods Hole, Massachusetts, August 7–11, 2001, and was sponsored by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and National Science Foundation. The agenda for the workshop is presented in Appendix A and workshop participants are identified in Appendix B. As the product of a workshop, this report does not contain findings or recommendations but instead represents an overview of discussions that occurred during the work-
shop. Each case study does contain a section, “Remaining Challenges,” that summarizes what the workshop participants saw as critical next steps. In addition, a new National Research Council report on public-private partnerships in weather and climate services (expected mid 2003) will provide detailed discussion of the relationships among the key participants in weather forecasting (i.e., the public, private, and academic sectors).
The National Academies and the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate wish to thank the speakers and participants who contributed their time and energy to this workshop. This kind of activity is an important mechanism for focusing discussion on issues and highlighting opportunities for future work.
Chris Elfring
Director, BASC
Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This workshop summary has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published summary as sound as possible and to ensure that the summary meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the workshop charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this summary: Lance Bosart, State University of New York, Albany; Stanley Changnon, Illinois State Water Survey; Robert Ryan, WRC-TV, Washington, D.C.; and Jack Williams, USA Today.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations from the speakers nor did they see the final draft of the summary before its release. The review of this summary was overseen by Marvin Geller, State University of New York, Stony Brook. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this summary was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this summary rests entirely with the author and the institution.