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S-285
NATURAL DISASTER STUDIES
An Investigative Series of the Committee on Natural Disasters
The Committee on Natural Disasters and its predecessors, dating back to the committee that studied the 1964 Alaska Earthquake, have conducted on-site studies and prepared reports reflecting their findings and recommendations on the mitigation of natural disaster effects. Objectives of the committee are to:
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record time-sensitive information immediately following disasters;
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provide guidance on how engineering and the social sciences can best be applied to the improvement of public safety;
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recommend research needed to advance the state of the art in the area of natural disaster reduction; and
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conduct special studies to address long-term issues in natural disasters, particularly issues of a multiple-hazard nature.
EDITOR
Riley M. Chung
National Research Council
EDITORIAL BOARD
Dennis S. Mileti, Chairman Colorado State University Fort Collins |
Nobert S. Baer New York University New York, New York |
Earl J. Baker Florida State University Tallahassee |
Arthur N. L. Chiu University of Hawaii at Manoa Honolulu |
Hanna J. Cortner University of Arizona Tucson |
Peter Gergely Cornell University Ithaca, New York |
Joseph H. Golden National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Washington, D.C. |
Wilfred D. Iwan California Institute of Technology Pasadena |
Ahsan Kareem University of Notre Dame Notre Dame, Indiana |
Dale C. Perry Texas A&M University College Station |
William J. Petak University of Southern California Los Angeles |
Robert L. Schuster U.S. Geological Survey Denver, Colorado |
SPONSORING AGENCIES
Federal Emergency Management Agency
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Science Foundation
INVITATION FOR DISCUSSION
Materials presented in Natural Disaster Studies often contain observations and statements that inspire debate. Readers interested in contributing to the discussion surrounding any topic contained in the journal may do so in the form of a letter to the editor. Letters will be reviewed by the editorial board, and if considered appropriate, printed in subsequent issues of Natural Disaster Studies.
COMMITTEE ON NATURAL DISASTERS (1987–1990)
NORBERT S. BAER,
Conservation Center of the Institute of Fine Arts, New York University, New York
JAY BAKER,
Department of Geography, Florida State University, Tallahassee
ARTHUR N. L. CHIU,
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu
HANNA J. CORTNER,
Water Resources Research Center, University of Arizona, Tucson
JOHN A. DRACUP,
Civil Engineering Department, University of California, Los Angeles
DANNY L. FREAD,
National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland
PETER GERGELY,
Department of Structural Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York
JOSEPH H. GOLDEN,
Chief Scientist Office, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, D.C.
WILFRED D. IWAN,
California Institute of Technology, Pasadena
AHSAN KAREEM,
Civil Engineering Department, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana
DENNIS S. MILETI,
Department of Sociology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins
JOSEPH PENZIEN,
Department of Civil Engineering, University of California, Berkeley
DALE C. PERRY,
Department of Construction Science, College of Architecture, Texas A&M University, College Station
WILLIAM J. PETAK,
Institute of Safety and Systems Management, University of Southern California, Los Angeles
ROBERT L. SCHUSTER,
U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, Colorado
RANDALL G. UPDIKE,
U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia
Staff
RILEY M. CHUNG, Director
BARBARA BODLING, Editor
SUSAN R. MCCUTCHEN, Administrative Assistant
GREGORY A. MOCK, Editor
SHIRLEY J. WHITLEY, Project Assistant
Liaison Representatives
WILLIAM A. ANDERSON,
Earthquake Systems Integration, Division of Biological and Critical Systems, National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C.
BRUCE A. BAUGHMAN,
Hazard Mitigation Branch, Public Assistance Division, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington, D.C.
FRED COLE,
Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance, Agency for International Development, U.S. Department of State, Washington, D.C.
ROBERT D. GALE (deceased),
U.S. Department of Agriculture/Forest Service, Washington, D.C.
EDWARD M. GROSS, Constituent Affairs and Industrial Meteorology Staff,
National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland
WILLIAM HOOKE,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, D.C.
PAUL KRUMPE,
Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance, Agency for International Development, U.S. Department of State, Washington, D.C.
ELEONORA SABADELL,
Division of Biological and Critical Systems, National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C.
GERALD F. WIECZOREK,
Office of Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Engineering, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia
ARTHUR J. ZEIZEL,
Office of Natural and Technological Hazards Programs, State and Local Programs and Support, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington, D.C.
LAWRENCE W. ZENSINGER (Alternate),
Office of Disaster Assistance Programs, State and Local Programs and Support, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington, D.C.
Acknowledgments
This report was prepared for the Committee on Natural Disasters, National Research Council. The study team expresses its appreciation to the many individuals, organizations, and agencies that provided information and suggestions for the report, including the following:
R. K. AHULAU, American Red Cross, Honolulu
FRANK APEL, Oahu Civil Defense Agency, City and County of Honolulu
THOMAS BATEY, Hawaii State Department of Defense, Honolulu
CHI-PIN CHANG, Department of Public Works, City and County of Honolulu
WILLIAM CHANG, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Honolulu
SALWYN CHINN, U.S. Geological Survey, Honolulu
DONALD CLEGG, Department of General Planning, City and County of Honolulu
DEEONA COLUMBIA, University of California, Los Angeles
JOHN G. EMMERSON, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Honolulu
MARVINFUKAGAWA, Department of Public Works, City and County of Honolulu
DONALD GRANSBACK, Hawaii State Department of Civil Defense, Honolulu
BEN HABLUTZEL, National Weather Service Forecast Office, Honolulu
PAUL HARAGUCHI, Hawaii State Department of Land and Natural Resources, Honolulu
MICHAEL HAYAMA, Soil Conservation Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Honolulu District Office
RANDALL R. INOUYE, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Honolulu
GEORGE L. KEKUNA, Oahu Civil Defense Agency, City and County of Honolulu
CLARENCE LEE, National Weather Service, Honolulu
JAMES LUM, Soil Conservation Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Honolulu
IWAO MATSUOKA, U.S. Geological Survey, Honolulu
BILL MEYER, U.S. Geological Survey, Honolulu
STEVE MIYAMOTO, Hawaii State Department of Land and Natural Resources, Honolulu
DAN MCKENNA, Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii
RICHARD NAKAHARA, U.S. Geological Survey, Honolulu
HARRY NAKASHIMA, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Honolulu
LOUIS ODA, University of Hawaii
JAMES PENNAZ, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Honolulu
HANS ROSENDAHL, National Weather Service, Honolulu
WILLIAM SATORIS, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Seattle, Washington
MALCOLM SUSSEL, Oahu Civil Defense Agency, City and County of Honolulu
ALFRED THIEDE, Department of Public Works, City and County of Honolulu
DARYL F. WAIT, Federal Emergency Management Agency, San Francisco, California
DAVID VARGO, American Red Cross, Burlingame, California
CHIP WANNER, U.S. Army Corps Engineers, Honolulu
STRATFORD WHITING, Soil Conservation Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Honolulu
GEORGE YOUNG, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Honolulu
Preface
The flood that greeted the new year in 1988 brought home the uncomfortable realization that many suburban areas of eastern Oahu are at risk from sudden and, in some cases, unpredictable flooding. Torrential rains fell over the southeastern portion of the island on New Year's Eve, precipitating major flooding in several suburban neighborhoods and resulting in $34 million in damages. Neither the current meteorological capabilities nor the present flood control structures proved adequate to predict or control the deluge.
The present report seeks to document and analyze the meteorological conditions leading to the torrential rains, the causes and patterns of flooding, the performance of flood control structures in the affected areas, the extent of damages, and the effectiveness of local emergency response and recovery actions. Conclusions and recommendations are drawn from the analyses.
This document will be of special interest to state and local hydrologists, floodplain managers, meteorologists, and disaster response personnel. It is written with the goal of improving existing flood control facilities and forecasting abilities. In particular, it addresses the current lack of consideration of sediment and debris flows in flood flow analyses of affected areas, as well as the lack of adequate weather radar on Oahu.
The findings presented here are the result of observations made on January 6–13, 1988, by a study team assembled by the Committee on Natural Disasters, a standing committee of the National Research Council. The study team's independent assessments of the meteorological conditions, emergency response efforts, and flood damage and hydrology form the basis of this report.