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COMMITTEE ON POPULATION
SAMUEL H. PRESTON (Chair),
Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania
RONALD D. LEE (Chair-elect),
Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley
JOSE-LUIS BOBADILLA,
World Bank, Washington, D.C.
JOHN B. CASTERLINE,
Department of Sociology, Brown University
KENNETH H. HILL,
Department of Population Dynamics, Johns Hopkins University
DEAN T. JAMISON,
School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles
ANNE R. PEBLEY,
The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California
RONALD R. RINDFUSS,
Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina
T. PAUL SCHULTZ,
Department of Economics, Yale University
SUSAN C.M. SCRIMSHAW,
School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles
BETH J. SOLDO,
Department of Demography, Georgetown University
MARTA TIENDA,
Population Research Center, University of Chicago
BARBARA BOYLE TORREY,
Population Reference Bureau, Washington, D.C.
JAMES TRUSSELL,
Office of Population Research, Princeton University
AMY O. TSUI,
Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
LINDA MARTIN, Director*
BARNEY COHEN, Research Associate
SUSAN COKE, Senior Project Assistant*
KAREN A. FOOTE, Research Associate
DIANE GOLDMAN, Administrative Assistant**
JAMES N. GRIBBLE, Program Officer
CAROLE L. JOLLY, Program Officer
PAULA J. MELVILLE, Senior Project Assistant
WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS
Presenters
BARBARA BOYLE TORREY+ (Chair),
Population Reference Bureau, Washington, D.C.
RICHARD BILSBORROW,
Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
HANS BINSWANGER,
World Bank, Washington, D.C.
BILLIE R. DEWALT,
Center for Latin American Studies, and the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, University of Pittsburgh
ROBERT E. EVENSON,
Department of Economics, Yale University
UMA LELE,
Food and Resource Economics Department, University of Florida
WOLFGANG LUTZ,
Population and Sustainable Development Project, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
MICHAEL MORTIMORE,
University of Cambridge, England
THEODORE PANAYOTOU,
Harvard Institute for International Development, and Department of Economics, Harvard University
STEWARD T.A. PICKETT,
Institute of Ecosystem Studies, New York Botanical Garden, Millbrook, N.Y.
SAMUEL H. PRESTON+,
Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania
VERNON W. RUTTAN,
Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Minnesota
BILLIE L. TURNER II,
George Perkins Marsh Institute, Clark University
M. GORDON WOLMAN,
Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Johns Hopkins University
ISAAK S. ZONNEVELD,
International Institute of Aerial Survey and Earth Science, Enschede, The Netherlands
Other Participants and Paper Coauthors
BARBARA CRANE,
Department of Population Planning and International Health, University of Michigan
MARIA CONCEPCION J. CRUZ
WILFRIDO CRUZ,
World Bank, Washington, D.C.
RUTH DEFRIES,
Department of Geography, University of Maryland
ALENE GELBARD,
Population Reference Bureau, Washington, D.C.
SARAH L. HAMILTON,
Center for Computational Sciences, University of Kentucky
EINAR HOLM,
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
SERGEI IVANOV,
Population Division, United Nations, New York
JEFF JORDAN,
Population Resource Center, Princeton, N.J.
CAROLYN MAKINSON,
Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, New York
MELANIE MARLETT,
Office of Strategic Planning, Agency for International Development, Washington, D.C.
WILLIAM McGREEVEY,
World Bank, Washington, D.C.
TOM MERRICK,
World Bank, Washington, D.C.
TOM MORRIS,
Office of Strategic Planning, Agency for International Development, Washington, D.C.
WILLIAM ROBERTSON, IV,
Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, New York
J. BRAD SCHWARTZ,
Center for International Development, Research Triangle Institute, Research Triangle Park, N.C.
ELLEN STARBIRD,
Office of Population, Agency for International Development, Washington, D.C.
C. SHANNON STOKES,
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, Pennsylvania State University
TERRY TIFFANY,
Office of Population, Agency for International Development, Washington, D.C.
JAMES TRUSSELL,+
Office of Population Research, Princeton University
MICHAEL VLASSOFF,
Population Division, United Nations, New York
STEPHEN VOSTI,
International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C.
National Research Council Staff
CARLA CARLSON,
Board on Agriculture
E. WILLIAM COLGLAZIER,
Office of International Affairs
ROB COPPOCK,
Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
DIANE GOLDMAN,
Committee on Population
JAMES N. GRIBBLE,
Committee on Population
CAROLE L. JOLLY,
Committee on Population
LINDA G. MARTIN,
Committee on Population
JOAN MONTGOMERY HALFORD,
Committee on Population
JAMES REARDON-ANDERSON,
Committee on Scholarly Communication with the People's Republic of China, Office of International Affairs
PAUL STERN,
Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change
SUSANNE STOIBER,
Division of Social and Economic Studies, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
JAMES TAVARES,
Board on Agriculture
Preface
This report summarizes the discussions and papers presented at a Committee on Population workshop on population growth and land use change in developing countries. The workshop, held December 5–6, 1991, at the National Academy of Sciences in Washington, D.C., brought together researchers from different disciplines to discuss recent research on the effects of population growth on land use.
In its 1986 report, Population Growth and Economic Development: Policy Questions (National Academy Press), the committee briefly considered the broad issue of population growth and the consequences for natural resources. With regard to land use, the report (National Research Council, 1986:33–34) concluded that "Rapid population growth poses two problems for agriculture. First, if no other conditions of production change, expansion of the agricultural labor force probably reduces labor productivity and correspondingly lowers agricultural wages. Second, population growth can accelerate the degradation of renewable resources.... The extent to which slower population growth would alleviate these problems depends on the degree to which the problems lead to other solutions through institutional and technological adaptation . . . if institutions do not adapt as rapidly as needed, slower population growth can retard the decline of labor productivity and the degradation of common resources."
In the 5 years that followed the publication of the report, public and policymaker interest in environmental issues continued to increase, and the committee decided to undertake another activity in this area. Instead of reviewing again a broad range of issues related to population and economic
development, the committee developed a workshop on one aspect of the relationship in developing countries: population growth and land use change. The committee focused mainly on agrarian uses because of their important implications for agricultural production, soil quality, and climate change.
Approximately half of the workshop was devoted to general aspects of the topic: the history of land use change; the measurement of land use change; approaches to the study of population growth and land use; population-induced technological change in agriculture; the use of cross-national data to understand population and land use relationships; and institutional change. Because ecological, economic, demographic, and institutional conditions vary from place to place, the rest of the workshop focused on case studies. The case studies exhibited a variety of analytical strategies for studying the population and land use relationship. The agenda for the workshop is presented in the Appendix. Summary versions of some of the papers, chosen by the editors in consultation with members of the Committee on Population, are published in this report.
A summary of many of the themes of the workshop is contained in the Introduction. The themes represent the views of the individual workshop participants and do not necessarily cover all the important aspects of the population and land use relationship.
The committee wishes to thank the Office of Population of the U.S. Agency for International Development, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, and the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, which generously provided the funding for the workshop. The committee also appreciates the efforts of the committee members who developed the workshop. Barbara Boyle Torrey chaired the workshop and devoted a great deal of energy and time to developing the meeting and preparing this report. James Trussell assisted in directing the workshop discussion.
The committee is also very grateful to M. Gordon Wolman, chair of the Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources of the National Research Council, who provided valuable historical background about land use change and initiated much of the workshop discussion. We are also grateful to the other participants for their informed presentations and discussions. A planning meeting, at which topics for the workshop were identified, was attended by Richard Bilsborrow, Hans Binswanger, Steven Mink, Michael Philley, Samuel Preston, Scott Radloff, Ronald Ridker, Susanne Stoiber, and Barbara Boyle Torrey.
Finally, the committee would like to thank the National Research Council staff who assisted in this workshop. Carole L. Jolly had principal responsibility for the workshop and edited this report with Barbara Boyle Torrey. Linda G. Martin provided guidance on structuring the workshop as well as useful comments on earlier drafts of the report. Barney Cohen made helpful suggestions on improving the introduction and took care of unnumerable
details in the final drafting stages. Diane Goldman completed the logistical arrangements for the workshop, and Susan Coke prepared the papers for publication. Michael Edington copyedited, and Eugenia Grohman, Elaine McGarraugh, and Christine McShane, with Susan Coke, Paula Melville, and Kirsten Johnson, collaborated in the production of this report.
Samuel H. Preston, Chair
Committee on Population
Contents
Introduction |
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Population, Land Use, and Environment: A Long History |
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What Is Meant by Land Use Change? |
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An Ecological Perspective on Population Change and Land Use |
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Northern Nigeria: Land Transformation Under Agricultural Intensification |
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India: Population Pressure, Technology, Infrastructure, Capital Formation, and Rural Incomes |
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Mauritius: Population and Land Use |
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Honduras: Population, Inequality, and Resource Destruction |
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Population Growth, Environmental Change, and Innovation: Implications for Sustainable Growth in Agriculture |
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