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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
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COMMITTEE ON THE HUMAN DIMENSIONS OF GLOBAL CHANGE 1997–1998
Diana M. Liverman (Chair),
Department of Geography, University of Arizona
John Antle,
Department of Agricultural Economics, Montana State University
Paul Epstein,
Center for Health and Global Environment, Harvard Medical School
Myron Gutmann,
Department of History, University of Texas, Austin
Paul Mayewski,
Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Space, University of New Hampshire
Emilio Moran,
Department of Anthropology, Indiana University
Elinor Ostrom,
Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis, Indiana University
Edward Parson,
JFK School of Government, Harvard University
Ronald R. Rindfuss,
Department of Sociology and Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
Robert Socolow,
Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Princeton University
Susan Stonich,
Department of Anthropology and Environmental Studies Program, University of California, Santa Barbara
Elke Weber,
Department of Psychology, Ohio State University
Edward Frieman (ex officio), Chair,
Board on Sustainable Development, National Research Council; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego
Oran R. Young (ex officio), Liaison,
International Human Dimensions Program; Institute of Arctic Studies, Dartmouth College
Paul C. Stern, Study Director
Heather Schofield, Senior Project Assistant
COMMITTEE ON GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH
BERRIEN MOORE III (Chairman),
University of New Hampshire, Durham
JAMES G. ANDERSON,
Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
GREGORY H. CANAVAN,
Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico
ROBERT COSTANZA,
University of Maryland, Solomons
W. LAWRENCE GATES,
University of California, Livermore
PRISCILLA C. GREW,
University of Nebraska, Lincoln
MARGARET S. LEINEN,
University of Rhode Island, Narragansett
PAUL A. MAYEWSKI,
University of New Hampshire, Durham
JAMES J. MCCARTHY,
Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
S. ICHTIAQUE RASOOL,
University of New Hampshire, Durham
EDWARD S. SARACHIK,
University of Washington, Seattle
DAVID S. SCHIMEL,
University Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
W. JAMES SHUTTLEWORTH,
University of Arizona, Tucson
KARL K. TUREKIAN,
Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
PETER M. VITOUSEK,
Stanford University, Stanford, California
Ex-Officio Members
Liaison Members, Board on Sustainable Development
EDWARD A. FRIEMAN,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography,
Chairman,
Board on Sustainable Development
ROBERT A. FROSCH,
Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
Cochairman, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
ERIC J. BARRON,
Pennsylvania State University
Chairman, Committee on Geophysical and Environmental Data
FRANCIS P. BRETHERTON,
University of Wisconsin, Madison
Chairman, Ocean Studies Board
KENNETH BRINK,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
Chairman, Committee on Atmospheric Chemistry
WILLIAM L. CHAMEIDES,
Georgia Institute of Technology
Chairman, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
JOHN A. DUTTON,
Pennsylvania State University
Chairman, Climate Research Committee
THOMAS R. KARL,
National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina
Chairman, Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change
DIANA M. LIVERMAN,
University of Arizona, Tucson
Chairman, Panel on Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Timescales
DOUG MARTINSON,
Columbia University, Palisades, New York
Chairman, Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Panel
SOROOSH SOROOSHIAN,
University of Arizona, Tucson
Chairman, Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System
PETER WEBSTER,
University of Colorado, Boulder
NRC Staff
SHERBURNE B. ABBOTT, Executive Director
DAVID M. GOODRICH, Project Director (ending January 16, 1998)
SYLVIA A. EDGERTON, Senior Research Fellow (April 8, 1998, to April 9, 1999)
LAURA SIGMAN, Research Associate (beginning February 17, 1998)
LESLIE McCANT, Project Assistant (beginning January 22, 1999)
BOARD ON SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
EDWARD A. FRIEMAN (Chairman),
University of California, La Jolla
ROBERT W. KATES (Vice-Chairman),
Independent Scholar
LOURDES ARIZPE,
UNESCO, Paris, France
JOHN BONGAARTS,
The Population Council, New York, New York
RALPH J. CICERONE,
University of California, Irvine
WILLIAM C. CLARK,
Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
ROBERT A. FROSCH,
Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
MALCOM GILLIS,
Rice University, Houston, Texas
RICHARD R. HARWOOD,
Michigan State University, East Lansing
PHILIP J. LANDRIGAN,
Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York, New York
KAI N. LEE,
Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts
JERRY D. MAHLMAN,
Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
RICHARD J. MAHONEY,
Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri
PAMELA A. MATSON,
Stanford University, Stanford, California
WILLIAM J. MERRELL,
H. John Heinz III Center, Washington, D.C.
G. WILLIAM MILLER,
G. William Miller & Company, Inc., Washington, D.C.
M. GRANGER MORGAN,
Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
PAUL RASKIN,
Tellus Institute, Boston, Massachusetts
JOHN B. ROBINSON,
University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
VERNON W. RUTTAN,
University of Minnesota, St. Paul
THOMAS C. SCHELLING,
University of Maryland, College Park
MARVALEE H. WAKE,
University of California, Berkeley
WARREN WASHINGTON,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
M. GORDON WOLMAN,
Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
Ex-Officio Member
Chairman, Committee on Global Change Research
BERRIEN MOORE III,
University of New Hampshire, Durham
NRC Staff
SHERBURNE B. ABBOTT, Executive Director
LAURA SIGMAN, Research Associate (beginning February 17, 1998)
LESLIE McCANT, Project Assistant (beginning January 22, 1999)
Contents
The table of contents of the entire report of which this is a part can be found on the following pages.
Contents
Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade
|
Preface |
ix |
||
1 |
Introduction and Background |
1 |
||
Summary |
1 |
|||
Background |
2 |
|||
The Road Ahead |
7 |
|||
The Pathways Framework |
8 |
|||
Review of the USGCRP |
10 |
|||
2 |
Changes to the Biology and Biochemistry of Ecosystems |
19 |
||
Summary |
19 |
|||
Introduction |
21 |
|||
Case Studies |
34 |
|||
A Research Agenda for the Next Decade |
42 |
|||
Lessons Learned |
56 |
|||
Research Imperatives |
67 |
|||
3 |
Changes in the Climate System on Seasonal to Interannual Timescales |
87 |
||
Summary |
87 |
|||
Introduction |
88 |
|||
Case Studies |
89 |
|||
A Research Agenda for the Next Decade |
98 |
|||
Lessons Learned |
109 |
|||
Research Imperatives: Priorities for Observations, Modeling, and Theory |
111 |
4 |
Changes in the Climate System on Decade-to-Century Timescales |
127 |
||
Summary |
127 |
|||
Introduction |
129 |
|||
Case Studies |
130 |
|||
A Research Agenda for the Next Decade |
140 |
|||
Lessons Learned |
177 |
|||
Research Imperatives: Priorities for Observations, Modeling and Theory |
178 |
|||
Conclusions |
184 |
|||
5 |
Changes in the Chemistry of the Atmosphere |
191 |
||
Summary |
191 |
|||
Introduction |
192 |
|||
Case Studies |
194 |
|||
A Research Agenda for the Next Decade |
199 |
|||
Lessons Learned |
206 |
|||
Research Imperatives: Priorities for Observations, Modeling, and Theory |
209 |
|||
6 |
Paleoclimate Overview |
237 |
||
Summary |
237 |
|||
Introduction |
239 |
|||
Case Studies |
240 |
|||
Key Scientific Questions and Issues |
268 |
|||
Lessons Learned |
272 |
|||
Research Imperatives |
274 |
|||
7 |
Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change |
293 |
||
Summary |
293 |
|||
Introduction |
295 |
|||
Case Studies: Contributions of Human Dimensions Research in Addressing Global Change |
298 |
|||
Key Scientific Questions |
302 |
|||
Lessons Learned |
333 |
|||
Research Imperatives |
337 |
|||
Conclusion: Key Research Issues for the USGCRP |
357 |
|||
8 |
Observations |
377 |
||
Introduction |
377 |
|||
Observations Required for the Science Elements of the USGCRP |
379 |
A Multipurpose, Multiuse Observing System for the USGCRP: Elements of System Design |
416 |
|||
Case Studies |
421 |
|||
Toward a Permanent Observing System |
424 |
|||
9 |
Processing and Distributing Earth Observations and Information |
435 |
||
Introduction |
435 |
|||
The EOS Data and Information System: Implications for the USGCRP |
435 |
|||
Moving Toward a New EOS Information System |
441 |
|||
10 |
Modeling |
445 |
||
Introduction |
445 |
|||
The Terrestrial-Atmosphere Subsystem |
457 |
|||
The Land-Ocean Subsystem |
464 |
|||
The Atmosphere-Ocean Subsystem |
473 |
|||
The Atmospheric Physical-Chemical Subsystem |
487 |
|||
The Human Linkage to the Earth System |
495 |
|||
Summary |
497 |
|||
11 |
Findings and Recommendations |
517 |
||
Research Imperatives and Scientific Questions—Drivers of Observations Research |
517 |
|||
|
Annex 1 |
537 |
||
|
Annex 2 |
542 |
||
|
Annex 3 |
544 |
||
|
Appendix A |
551 |
||
|
Appendix B |
563 |
||
|
Appendix C |
569 |
This page in the original is blank. |
Preface
This publication is extracted from a much larger report, Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade, which addresses the full range of the scientific issues concerning global environmental change and offers guidance to the scientific effort on these issues in the United States. This volume consists of Chapter 7 of that report, ''Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change,'' which was written for the report by the Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change of the National Research Council (NRC). It provides findings and conclusions on the key scientific questions in human dimensions research, the lessons that have been learned over the past decade, and the research imperatives for global change research funded from the United States.
This publication demonstrates the emergence of a mature research agenda based on an established framework of questions and published findings. It shows how social science provides insights, models, and data of immediate relevance and application to research in earth science (such as projecting carbon emissions or land use change and estimating climate's effects). It also notes progress in understanding of the basic social processes and driving forces underlying the human relationship to the environment (such as public attitudes and population dynamics). In addition, it shows ways in which the social sciences can help direct the priorities of the overall global change program towards more integrated, policy relevant, and effective research imperatives.
Although most of the material on human dimensions research in the larger report appears in this volume, our committee also contributed material on human dimensions to other parts of that report, particularly Chapters 8 and 10, on observations and modeling, respectively. The observations chapter includes a section highlighting the significance of social, economic, and health data to global change
research. It notes, for example, the importance of agricultural and population census data in land use research and the need for data on energy production and consumption in research on the carbon cycle. Major challenges include the difficulties of linking social and biophysical data across different scales and spatial units and the lack of data comparability across different political jurisdictions. The chapter also notes that most of the key social data in the United States are collected by agencies, such as the Census Bureau and Department of Health and Human Services, that do not have environmental responsibilities, and such data are not precisely georeferenced. The chapter also addresses issues of confidentiality and privacy raised by detailed human dimensions observations.
The chapter on modeling contains a section that discusses the challenges of including human processes in integrated modeling of the earth system. Noting some progress in integrated modeling, the section highlights the very large uncertainties and great diversity within social systems that limit the predictability of both the human system and the overall earth system. We refer you to these chapters to see the human dimensions issues in context.
The larger report also includes major chapters on ecosystems, seasonal to interannual climate change, decade to century climate change, atmospheric chemistry, and paleoclimate. It makes important recommendations to focus the efforts of the global change research in the United States on central scientific questions and urges the creation of a coherent observational strategy to help answer these questions. We commend the entire report to the social science research and policy communities. Our committee decided to publish Chapter 7 separately in order to reach a community of scholars, students, and policy makers in the United States and elsewhere who have a focused interest in human-environment interactions.
The Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change began working a decade ago, at the same time that the U.S. government established the interagency U.S. Global Change Research Program and the U.S. National Science Foundation established a formal program to study the human dimensions of global environmental change. Over that decade, U.S. government support for human dimensions work has expanded modestly, an increasing number of scholars have identified themselves with the field, and efforts have been made to integrate social science into the broader global change programs.
Our committee has offered advice from the scientific community to these efforts within the government. It has worked to develop the intellectual basis for progress in understanding human-environment interactions and to set research directions for the future. The committee's 1992 report, Global Environmental Change: Understanding the Human Dimensions, established a framework and research agenda for studying the human causes, consequences, and responses to changes in the global environment such as changes in climate and biodiversity. Since then, the committee has published several reports on specific topics (Environmentally Significant Consumption: Research Directions [1997], People and Pixels: Linking Remote Sensing and Social Science [1998], and Making Climate
Forecasts Matter [1999]) and one report on science priorities—Science Priorities for the Human Dimensions of Global Change (1994). However, until the present publication, the committee had not taken the time to reflect on overall progress, the evolution of research questions, and important lessons learned since the 1992 report.
In 1995 the Committee on Global Change Research began a major review of the status of the U.S. research effort on global change. Early in the process, it became clear that human dimensions research was a critical crosscutting activity across the four themes of the national research program: seasonal to interannual climate prediction, decadal to centennial climate change, atmospheric chemistry, and terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Because our committee had expertise spanning these and other areas, we chose to devote considerable time as a group to developing a chapter for this major review that would identify key science questions, lessons learned, and research imperatives in the field of human dimensions of global change.
I would like to acknowledge the outstanding support and contributions of Paul Stern in helping to prepare the chapter that comprises this report as well as the work and ideas of both present and past members of the Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change. Human dimensions researchers Robert Chen, Hadi Dowlatabadi, Greg Knight, Roger Pulwarty and Marvin Waterstone and Robert Costanza of the Committee on Global Change Research also made suggestions of material to be included in the chapter. Very sincere thanks are also due to Berrien Moore and Ed Frieman, chairs of the Committee on Global Change Research and the Board on Sustainable Development, respectively, who encouraged our efforts. I am grateful for the support and encouragement of Barbara Torrey of the NRC's Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education and Robert Kates of the Board on Sustainble Development, and very appreciative of the assistance and editorial work of David Goodrich, Shere Abbott, Sylvia Edgerton, Laura Sigman, and other NRC staffers who worked so diligently on the report from which this chapter is taken.
DIANA M. LIVERMAN, CHAIR
COMMITTEE ON THE HUMAN DIMENSIONS OF GLOBAL CHANGE (1995–1998)