State and Federal Standards for Mobile-Source Emissions
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This project was supported by Contract No. EP-C-04-024 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project.
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COMMITTEE ON STATE PRACTICES IN SETTING MOBILE SOURCE EMISSIONS STANDARDS
Members
DAVID ALLEN (Chair),
University of Texas, Austin
JOHN BAILAR III,
University of Chicago (Retired), Washington, DC
HUGH ELLIS,
Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD
ALISON GEYH,
Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD
DAVID GREENE,
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Knoxville, TN
JAMES LENTS,
University of California, Riverside, Riverside
GARY MARCHANT,
Arizona State University, Tempe
VIRGINIA MCCONNELL,
Resources for the Future, Inc., Washington, DC
ALISON POLLACK,
ENVIRON International Corporation, Novato, CA
HAROLD SCHOCK,
Michigan State University, East Lansing
KARL SPRINGER,
Southwest Research Institute (retired), San Antonio, TX
Project Staff
K. JOHN HOLMES, Project Director
RAYMOND A. WASSEL, Senior Program Officer
MATTHEW RUSSELL, Associate Staff Officer
RUTH E. CROSSGROVE, Senior Editor
MIRSADA KARALIC-LONCAREVIC, Research Associate
BRYAN SHIPLEY, Research Associate
RADIAH A. ROSE, Senior Program Assistant
ALEXANDRA STUPPLE, Senior Editorial Assistant
RAHEL MENGHESTAB, Anderson Intern
SAMMY BARDLEY, Librarian
Sponsor
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY1
Members
JONATHAN M. SAMET (Chair),
Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD
RAMÓN ALVAREZ,
Environmental Defense, Austin, TX
JOHN M. BALBUS,
Environmental Defense, Washington, DC
THOMAS BURKE,
Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD
DALLAS BURTRAW,
Resources for the Future, Washington, DC
JAMES S. BUS,
Dow Chemical Company, Midland, MI
COSTEL D. DENSON,
University of Delaware, Newark
E. DONALD ELLIOTT,
Willkie Farr & Gallagher LLP, Washington, DC
J. PAUL GILMAN,
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN
SHERRI W. GOODMAN,
Center for Naval Analyses, Alexandria, VA
JUDITH A. GRAHAM,
American Chemistry Council, Arlington, VA
DANIEL S. GREENBAUM,
Health Effects Institute, Cambridge, MA
WILLIAM P. HORN,
Birch, Horton, Bittner and Cherot, Washington, DC
ROBERT HUGGETT,
Michigan State University (emeritus), East Lansing
JAMES H. JOHNSON JR.,
Howard University, Washington, DC
JUDITH L. MEYER,
University of Georgia, Athens
PATRICK Y. O’BRIEN,
ChevronTexaco Energy Technology Company, Richmond, CA
DOROTHY E. PATTON,
International Life Sciences Institute, Washington, DC
STEWARD T.A. PICKETT,
Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY
DANNY D. REIBLE,
University of Texas, Austin
JOSEPH V. RODRICKS,
ENVIRON International Corporation, Arlington, VA
ARMISTEAD G. RUSSELL,
Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta
LISA SPEER,
Natural Resources Defense Council, New York, NY
KIMBERLY M. THOMPSON,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
MONICA G. TURNER,
University of Wisconsin, Madison
MARK J. UTELL,
University of Rochester Medical Center, Rochester, NY
CHRIS G. WHIPPLE,
ENVIRON International Corporation, Emeryville, CA
LAUREN ZEISE,
California Environmental Protection Agency, Oakland
Senior Staff
JAMES J. REISA, Director
DAVID J. POLICANSKY, Scholar
RAYMOND A. WASSEL, Senior Program Officer for Environmental Sciences and Engineering
KULBIR BAKSHI, Senior Program Officer for Toxicology
EILEEN N. ABT, Senior Program Officer for Risk Analysis
K. JOHN HOLMES, Senior Program Officer
SUSAN N.J. MARTEL, Senior Program Officer
SUZANNE VAN DRUNICK, Senior Program Officer
ELLEN K. MANTUS, Senior Program Officer
KARL E. GUSTAVSON, Senior Program Officer
RUTH E. CROSSGROVE, Senior Editor
OTHER REPORTS OF THE BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY
Fluoride in Drinking Water: A Scientific Review of EPA’s Standards (2006)
Superfund and Mining Megasites—Lessons from the Coeur d’Alene River Basin (2005)
Health Implications of Perchlorate Ingestion (2005)
Air Quality Management in the United States (2004)
Endangered and Threatened Species of the Platte River (2004)
Atlantic Salmon in Maine (2004)
Endangered and Threatened Fishes in the Klamath River Basin (2004)
Cumulative Environmental Effects of Alaska North Slope Oil and Gas Development (2003)
Estimating the Public Health Benefits of Proposed Air Pollution Regulations (2002)
Biosolids Applied to Land: Advancing Standards and Practices (2002)
The Airliner Cabin Environment and Health of Passengers and Crew (2002)
Arsenic in Drinking Water: 2001 Update (2001)
Evaluating Vehicle Emissions Inspection and Maintenance Programs (2001)
Compensating for Wetland Losses Under the Clean Water Act (2001)
A Risk-Management Strategy for PCB-Contaminated Sediments (2001)
Acute Exposure Guideline Levels for Selected Airborne Chemicals (4 volumes, 2000-2004)
Toxicological Effects of Methylmercury (2000)
Strengthening Science at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2000)
Scientific Frontiers in Developmental Toxicology and Risk Assessment (2000)
Ecological Indicators for the Nation (2000)
Waste Incineration and Public Health (1999)
Hormonally Active Agents in the Environment (1999)
Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter (4 volumes, 1998-2004)
The National Research Council’s Committee on Toxicology: The First 50 Years (1997)
Carcinogens and Anticarcinogens in the Human Diet (1996)
Upstream: Salmon and Society in the Pacific Northwest (1996)
Science and the Endangered Species Act (1995)
Wetlands: Characteristics and Boundaries (1995)
Biologic Markers (5 volumes, 1989-1995)
Review of EPA's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (3 volumes, 1994-1995)
Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment (1994)
Pesticides in the Diets of Infants and Children (1993)
Dolphins and the Tuna Industry (1992)
Science and the National Parks (1992)
Human Exposure Assessment for Airborne Pollutants (1991)
Rethinking the Ozone Problem in Urban and Regional Air Pollution (1991)
Decline of the Sea Turtles (1990)
Copies of these reports may be ordered from the National Academies Press
(800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313
Preface
The task undertaken by this committee for the National Academies was to review and evaluate the scientific and technical practices used by states in setting emission standards for mobile sources, including those for non-road engines and vehicles. The study assessed the scientific and technical procedures used by states to develop or adopt emissions standards separate from those set by the Environmental Protection Agency under the Clean Air Act as well as the factors that cause states to move to more stringent emissions standards. The committee considered the scientific, technical, and economic rationale and methodologies used by the states in setting standards and how they compare to those used by the EPA. In addition, the committee assessed the direct and indirect impacts that state emissions standards have had on various factors, including compliance costs, energy consumption, air quality, and human health.
The committee received oral and written presentations from the following individuals: Steve Albu, California Air Resources Board; Thomas Austin, Sierra Research, Inc.; Robert Babik, General Motors Company; William Becker, State and Territorial Air Pollution Program Administrators and the Association of Local Air Pollution Control Officials; Thomas Cackette, Air Resources Board; Coralie Cooper, Northeast States Coordinated Air Use Management; Greg Dana, Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers; David Dickinson, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Karl Simon, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Chet France, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Timothy French, Engine Manufacturers Association; Dawn Gallagher, Maine Department of Environmental Protection; John German, Honda Motor Company; Robert Golledge, Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection;
William Guerry, Outdoor Power Equipment Institute; Patricia Hanz, Briggs & Stratton Corporation; Peter Hotz, Briggs & Stratton Corporation; Roland Hwang, Natural Resources Defense Council; Peter Iwanowicz, American Lung Association of New York State, Inc.; Carl Johnson, New York Department of Environmental Conservation; Robert Jorgensen, Cummins Engine Company; Therese Langer, American Council for an Energy-Efficiency Economy; Peter Lidiak, American Petroleum Institute; Arthur Marin, Northeast States Coordinated Air Use Management; Gina McCarthy, Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection; George Miller, International Consortium for Fire Safety, Health and the Environment; Frederick Postel, International Consortium of Fire Safety, Health and the Environment; Thomas Snyder, Maryland Department of Environmental Protection; Richard Valentinetti, Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation; Barry Wallerstein, South Coast Air Quality Management District; Michael Walsh, Independent Consultant; Catherine Witherspoon, California Air Resources Board; Merrylin Zaw-Mon, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The committee thanks all of these individuals for their contributions. A complete list of dates, titles and presenter names can be found in Appendix E.
The committee is also grateful for the assistance of the National Research Council (NRC) staff in the preparation of this report. K. John Holmes played a key role in preparing this report in his role as project director. The committee also thanks Raymond Wassel, senior program director of environmental sciences and engineering in the Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology (BEST), and the other staff members contributing to this report: James Reisa, director of BEST; Ruth Crossgrove, senior editor; Matthew Russell, associate staff officer; Mirsada Karalic-Loncarevic and Bryan Shipley, research associates; Radiah Rose, senior program assistant; Alexandra Stupple, senior editorial assistant; and Rahel Menghasteb, Anderson intern.
As chair, I thank all the members of the committee for their expertise and dedicated effort throughout the study.
Finally, given the topic of this report, it is appropriate to acknowledge a major supporter of the NRC, Arnold Beckman. Few know of the involvement of Arnold Beckman in the early efforts to reduce air pollution in California. In 1953, Arnold Beckman chaired a five-member committee formed by then Governor Knight to address a comprehensive program needed to eliminate smog. One of the several short- and long-term recommendations was to control automobile exhaust. Perhaps the following best sums up the Beckman Committee’s concerns.
The fact must be faced that cleaning the air in this area is a tremendous task, one that many will find appallingly expensive. This committee would be gravely remiss if it failed to point out that the community must either assume the real hardships imposed by abatement or accept those imposed by the continuing smog nuisance.1
NRC committees regularly use the Beckman Center, located on the campus of the University of California, Irvine. This acknowledgment is included in the Preface to our report to express the appreciation on behalf of those who have made use of the Beckman Center and to recognize Arnold Beckman’s pioneering leadership to reduce air pollution.
David Allen, Ph.D.
Chair, Committee on State Practices in Setting Mobile Source Emissions Standards
Acknowledgment of Review Participants
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Charles Amann, KAB Engineering; Thomas Austin, Sierra Research, Incorporated; Frank Barnes, University of Colorado at Boulder; Michael Bradley, M.J. Bradley & Associates; David Calkins, Sierra Nevada Air Quality Group; Laurence Caretto, California State University, Northridge; Joseph Colucci, Automotive Fuels Consulting, Incorporated; John DeCicco, Environmental Defense; Charles Freed, Independent Consultant; Daniel Greenbaum, Health Effects Institute; John Johnson, Michigan Technological University; Robert Jorgensen, Cummins Engine Company; Joseph Kubsh, Manufacturers of Emission Controls Association; Douglas Lawson, National Renewable Energy Laboratory; James McNew, Outdoor Power Equipment Institute; John Mooney, Environmental & Energy Technology & Policy Institute; and Arthur Winer, University of California, Los Angeles.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by William Agnew, General Motors Corporation (Retired) and Thomas Graedel, Yale University. Appointed by the NRC, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
BOXES
3-1 |
New Vehicle Emissions Standards and Controls on In-Use High-Emitting Vehicles, |
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4-1 |
Certification of Light-Duty Vehicles to Emissions Standards, |
FIGURES
2-4 |
Trends in maximum ozone concentrations averaged over 1 hr for New York and Los Angeles airsheds from 1978 to 2004, |
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2-5 |
Trends in maximum ozone concentrations averaged over 8 hr for New York and Los Angeles airsheds from 1994 to 2004, |
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2-6 |
Schematic of the atmospheric processes involved in the formation of O3 and secondary PM, |
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2-7 |
Ozone isopleths (lines of constant ozone concentrations), |
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2-8 |
Typical particle volume (n°V), surface area (n°S), and number (n°N) concentrations of urban aerosol as a function of particle diameter, |
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2-9 |
Mean PM2.5 compositions in the United States, |
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2-10 |
Trends in CO, NOx, and VOC emissions in the United States by major sector, 1970-2002, |
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2-11 |
Number of registered vehicles in various on-road vehicle classes in 2003, |
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2-12 |
New light-duty vehicle market share by vehicle class from 1976 to 2002, |
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2-13 |
Historical trends in mobile-source CO, VOC, and NOx emissions in the United States by vehicle class, 1970-2002, |
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2-14 |
Historical trends in mobile-source CO, NOx, and ROG emissions in California by vehicle class, 1975-2003 (2004 for ROG), |
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2-15 |
National 2002 estimates for nonroad equipment population by source category (in millions), |
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2-16 |
Historical trends in nonroad sources of (a) CO, (b) NOx, and (c) VOC emissions in the United States by equipment class, 1970-2002, |
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2-17 |
Historical trends in nonroad sources of (a) CO, (b) NOx, and (c) ROG emissions in California by equipment class, 1975-2004, |
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2-18 |
Representative emissions inventories (tons/day) from areas that are in nonattainment of the ozone NAAQS, based on 1-hr averaged concentrations, |
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2-19 |
Total particle number, black carbon (similar to elemental carbon), and CO concentrations versus downwind distance from a freeway, |
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3-1 |
Los Angeles Times sponsored a study by Raymond R. Tucker in 1946, |
3-2 |
Decreasing CO emissions from new vehicles, |
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4-1 |
Exhaust gas recirculation, |
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4-2 |
Schematic of a three-way catalyst, |
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4-3 |
Schematic of closed-loop controls, |
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4-4 |
Catalyst conversion efficiency as a function of air-to-fuel (A/F) mixture ratio, |
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4-5 |
Average CO emissions for a 111-vehicle test sample taken in Fairbanks and Anchorage, Alaska, under temperatures ranging from 34° F to 14° F, |
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4-6 |
Average HC emissions for a 111-vehicle test sample taken in Fairbanks and Anchorage, Alaska, under temperatures ranging from 34° F to 14° F, |
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4-7 |
Cross-section of a carbon canister, |
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4-8 |
Schematic of selective catalytic reduction (SCR) system for NOx reduction, |
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5-1 |
Costs and benefits of NOx reduction and HC reduction in Regions 1 and 2, |
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5-2 |
Impacts of safety and emissions equipment and other quality improvements on average vehicle price from 1967 to 2001, |
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6-1 |
Comparison of California and federal emissions standards (NOx + NMOG) estimated by CARB, |
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6-2 |
Forty-seven-state (excluding California) NOx emissions with the Tier 2/sulfur rule, |
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7-1 |
EPA model-year 1998-2006 exhaust (HC + NOx) emissions standards curves for recreational marine outboard and personal watercraft engines, |
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7-2 |
HC and NOx Tier 1 will begin in 2001 (EPA’s 2006 model year standard); Tier 2, which is 80% of Tier 1, will begin in 2004; and Tier 3, which is 35% of Tier 1, will begin in 2008, |
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7-3 |
Projected nationwide NOx emissions with and without the 2007 HDV engines and fuel sulfur standards, |
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7-4 |
Flow chart of small SI engine distribution process, |
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7-5 |
Results of research at Southwest Research Institute under contract to CARB to test surface-temperature effects of adding catalysts to small SI engines, |
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7-6 |
TERP NOx emission reductions to date versus the 2007 SIP TERP goal in the HGB area, |
TABLES
2-1 |
Federal and California Ambient Air Quality Standards, |
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2-2 |
Air Pollutant Emissions Sources, |
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2-3 |
Companion of 2003 Activity and Fuel Consumption by Vehicle Type, |
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2-4 |
Percent Change in Annual Emissions from 1980 to 2000 for NOx, VOC, and CO, and Percent Change in Annual Vehicle Miles Traveled from 1980 to 2000, |
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2-5 |
Nonroad Mobile-Sources Categories, |
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3-1 |
Federal Legislation Controlling Regulation Development, |
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3-2 |
Executive Orders Controlling Regulation Development, |
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3-3 |
California and Federal Exhaust Emissions Standards for Passenger Vehicles (grams/mile), |
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3-4 |
Comparison of California with Federal Regulatory Initiatives for Light- and Medium-Duty On-Road Vehicles, |
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3-5 |
Important Features of the California CAA of 1988, |
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3-6 |
Comparison of 11-Member CARB Governing Board, |
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3-7 |
Estimates of Emissions-Carrying Capacity Needed for Attainment of Ozone Standards, |
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3-8 |
Steps in CARB Standards Development, |
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3-9 |
Elements of State Implementation Plans, |
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3-10 |
Attainment Years Set in Various CAA Amendments for the 1-hr Ozone Standard, |
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3-11 |
SIP Control Strategies for NOx for the Dallas-Fort Worth Area, |
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4-1 |
Major Control Technologies of New Light-Duty Vehicles Sold in the United States, |
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4-2 |
Summary of Emissions Controls Used to Meet Federal Standards for Light-Duty Vehicles, |
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4-3 |
Possible Emissions-Control Technologies for Nonroad Mobile Sources, |
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5-1 |
Costs and Benefits of Possible Outcomes of Allowing Separate State Standards, |
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6-1 |
LEV Fleet Average NMOG Standards in Grams per Mile, |
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6-2 |
Comparison of the Features of the LEV II and Tier 2 Programs, |
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6-3 |
LEV II Full Useful Life (120,000 mi) Exhaust Mass Emissions Standards in grams/mile, |
6-4 |
Tier 2 and Interim Non-tier 2 Full Useful Life (120,000 mi) Exhaust Mass Emission Standards in grams/mile, |
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6-5 |
Ex Ante Estimates of Most Likely Technologies to Meet the CARB LEV II and EPA Tier 2 Standards, Respectively, |
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6-6 |
Estimated Average Cost per Vehicle of California LEV Compared with Tier 1 and Averaged Over the Fleet, |
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6-7 |
Estimated Average Cost per Vehicle to Meet California LEV Standard Compared with the Tier 1 Standard (Cost per Vehicle), |
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6-8 |
Passenger Car and LDT 1: Incremental Component Costs of a ULEV II Compared with a ULEV I, |
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6-9 |
Ex Ante Estimates of the Costs per Vehicle for Meeting the LEV II and Tier 2 Standards (dollars per vehicle), |
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6-10 |
Incremental Manufacturer Cost Estimates of PZEVs, AT-PZEVs, and ZEVs (dollars per vehicle), |
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6-11 |
Estimates of Cost-Effectiveness of Advanced Technology Vehicles (dollars per ton pollutant reduced over the lifetime of the vehicle), |
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6-12 |
Annual Health Benefits (Avoided Cases of Mortality and Morbidity and Monetized Value) for Tier 2 Regulation in 2030, |
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6-13 |
Manufacturers’ Objections to Northeast States’ Adoption of the California Emissions Standards, |
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6-14 |
Summary of Various Estimates of Emission Reductions Analyses of Adopting California Mobile-Source Emissions Standards in the Northeast, |
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6-15 |
CO2 Equivalent Emissions Standards for Model-Years 2009 through 2016, |
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6-16 |
Average Cost of Control, |
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7-1 |
NOx After-Treatment Devices for HDV Diesel Engines, |
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7-2 |
Per-Vehicle Incremental Cost Estimates of 2007 Heavy (33,001+ lb gross vehicle weight) HDV Diesel-Engine Standards Compliance, |
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7-3 |
Existing EPA Phase II Exhaust Emissions Standards for Small SI Engines in Handheld and Nonhandheld Equipment, |
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7-4 |
Existing CARB Small-Engine Exhaust Emissions Standards, Adopted in 2004 (also referred to as Tier 3), |
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7-5 |
Program Summary by Fiscal Year of the Carl Moyer Program (through mid-2003), |
7-6 |
Project Summary for the First Three Fiscal Years of the Carl Moyer Program (through mid-2003), |
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7-7 |
Summary of TERP-Funded and -Recommended Projects to Date in the HGB and DFW Areas (as of November 2, 2004), |
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7-8 |
Summary of TERP-Funded and -Recommended Projects to Date in the HGB and DFW Areas by Emission Sources (as of November 2, 2004), |