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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by Contract No. 50-DKNA-6-90040 between the National Academies and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Grant No. ATM-9814235 between the National Academies and the National Science Foundation. Additional support for this study was provided by the Department of Energy and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations, agencies, or subagencies that provided support for the project.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Engineering
Institute of Medicine
National Research Council
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
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The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
PANEL ON IMPROVING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF U.S. CLIMATE MODELING
EDWARD S. SARACHIK (Chair),
University of Washington, Seattle
LENNART BENGTSSON,
Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany
MAURICE L. BLACKMON,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
MARGARET A. LEMONE,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
ROBERT C. MALONE,
Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico
MATTHEW T. O'KEEFE,
University of Minnesota, Minneapolis
RICHARD B. ROOD,
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
STEPHEN E. ZEBIAK,
International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, New York
STAFF
VAUGHAN C. TUREKIAN, Study Director
ALEXANDRA R. ISERN, Program Officer
CARTER W. FORD, Project Assistant
CLIMATE RESEARCH COMMITTEE
EUGENE M. RASMUSSON (Chair),
University of Maryland, College Park
EDWARD S. SARACHIK (Vice-Chair),
University of Washington, Seattle
MAURICE L. BLACKMON,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
STANLEY A. CHANGNON,
Midwestern Climate Center, Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign
DIAN J. GAFFEN,
NOAA/Air Resources Laboratory, Silver Spring, Maryland
RICHARD E. HALLGREN,
American Meteorological Society, Washington, D.C.
JAMES E. HANSEN,
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York
DOUGLAS G. MARTINSON,
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York
RAYMOND NAJJAR,
Pennsylvania State University, University Park
STEVEN W. RUNNING,
University of Montana, Missoula
LYNNE D. TALLEY,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
ANNE M. THOMPSON,
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
ANDREW J. WEAVER,
University of Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
ERIC WOOD,
Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
STAFF
PETER A. SCHULTZ, Senior Program Officer
CARTER W. FORD, Project Assistant
BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE
ERIC J. BARRON (Chair),
Pennsylvania State University, University Park
SUSAN K. AVERY,
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder
HOWARD B. BLUESTEIN,
University of Oklahoma, Norman
STEVEN F. CLIFFORD,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado
GEORGE L. FREDERICK,
Radian Electronic Systems, Austin, Texas
MARVIN A. GELLER,
State University of New York, Stony Brook
CHARLES E. KOLB,
Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts
JUDITH L. LEAN,
Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, D.C.
ROGER A. PIELKE, JR.,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
MICHAEL J. PRATHER,
University of California, Irvine
ROBERT T. RYAN,
WRC-TV, Washington, D.C.
MARK R. SCHOEBERL,
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
JOANNE SIMPSON,
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
THOMAS F. TASCIONE,
Sterling Software, Inc., Bellevue, Nebraska
ROBERT A. WELLER,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
ERIC F. WOOD,
Princeton University, New Jersey
EX OFFICIO MEMBERS
DONALD S. BURKE,
Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
DARA ENTEKHABI,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
MICHAEL C. KELLEY,
Cornell University, Ithaca, New York
MARIO MOLINA,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
JOHN O. ROADS,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
EUGENE M. RASMUSSON,
University of Maryland, College Park
EDWARD S. SARACHIK,
University of Washington, Seattle
STAFF
ELBERT W. (JOE) FRIDAY, JR., Director
LAURIE S. GELLER, Program Officer
ALEXANDRA R. ISERN, Program Officer
PETER A. SCHULTZ, Senior Program Officer
VAUGHAN C. TUREKIAN, Program Officer
DIANE L. GUSTAFSON, Administrative Assistant
ROBIN MORRIS, Financial Associate
TENECIA A. BROWN, Project Assistant
CARTER W. FORD, Project Assistant
COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES
GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chair),
University of Virginia, Charlottesville
RICHARD A. CONWAY,
Union Carbide Corporation (Retired), S. Charleston, West Virginia
LYNN GOLDMAN,
Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene and Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland
THOMAS E. GRAEDEL,
Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
THOMAS J. GRAFF,
Environmental Defense, Oakland, California
EUGENIA KALNAY,
University of Maryland, College Park
DEBRA KNOPMAN,
Progressive Policy Institute, Washington, D.C.
BRAD MOONEY,
J. Brad Mooney Associates, Ltd., Arlington, Virginia
HUGH C. MORRIS,
El Dorado Gold Corporation, Vancouver, British Columbia
H. RONALD PULLIAM,
University of Georgia, Athens
MILTON RUSSELL,
Joint Institute for Energy and Environment and University of Tennessee (Emeritus), Knoxville
ROBERT J. SERAFIN,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
ANDREW R. SOLOW,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
E-AN ZEN,
University of Maryland, College Park
STAFF
ROBERT M. HAMILTON, Executive Director
GREGORY H. SYMMES, Associate Executive Director
CHRISTINE HENDERSON, Reports Officer
JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative and Financial Officer
SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate
Preface
Information derived from climate modeling has become increasingly important in recent years. Seasonal-to-interannual forecasts of the global aspects of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have been made and have proven valuable in both public and private applications.
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Patterns of global climate, especially the North American/Arctic Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, have been shown to strongly affect regional climate, raising questions about the mechanisms and the predictability of these patterns.
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Long-term climate change and the response of the climate to the anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active gases and constituents have been intensively studied over the last thirty years, with the results being scrutinized to evaluate possible mitigation and adaptation.
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Regional assessments of climate variability and change have begun and this has led to an increasing awareness of the intricate interactions of the physical climate, ecological systems, and human institutions.
More and more we understand that climate variability and change impacts society and that dealing with climate-related disasters, conflicts, and opportunities requires the best possible information about the past, present, and future of the climate system.
It is in this context that the National Research Council (NRC) report Capacity of U.S. Climate Modeling to Support Climate Change Assessment Activities (NRC, 1998a) pointed out that the United States now lags behind other nations in its ability to model the climate. At a time of in-
creased need came a message of decreased capacity. This present report is a response, a first response, to that report.
To address the issues involved in improving this situation, the NRC empanelled the authors of this report and charged them with examining the computer and human resource issues involved in assessing U.S. climate modeling needs, especially at the high-end of modeling. The panel itself represented a wide range of expertise in climate and climate modeling, but to supplement its expertise a survey was conducted to gain an appreciation of the magnitude of the issues and to elicit opinions from the modeling community about our present plight and possible solutions. A general meeting of modelers was held at the National Academies on August 21, 2000, to further hear the concerns of the climate modeling community. Considering all these sources of input, the panel deliberated its recommendations and produced this report.
The panel recognizes that one of the most important inadequacies of this report is its inability to place climate modeling fully in the context of the panoply of issues arising from the interaction of physical climate, ecosystems, and human institutions The problem is just too big, as was illustrated in a previous NRC report (NRC, 1999a—‘Pathways'). The panel hopes that this broader context will be recognized and will continue to be addressed in the future.
The discussion of computer architectures reflects the updated information available during panel deliberations and report preparation. Because the field of computer technology is fluid and rapidly evolving, upgrades in computing systems, such as NCEP's recent acquisition of an IBM Power-3 Winterhawk-II, which occurred after the preparation of the report, are not reflected in the report's summary data on computer performance (e.g., Table 3-1). The panel does not believe that such upgrades would change its overall findings or recommendations.
The panel would like to acknowledge the dedicated industry of Dr. Alexandra Isern, Dr. Vaughan Turekian, and Mr. Carter Ford, without whom the production of this report would have been impossible.
E. S. Sarachik
Chair
Acknowledgments
The panel greatly appreciates the efforts of all of the survey respondents whose input was critical for the completion of this report. Roberta Miller is greatly acknowledged for her comments and corrections on the surveys prior to their distribution. In addition, the panel would like to thank all of those who participated in the workshop and provided input to the discussions at this meeting. Bob Atlas is acknowledged for providing helpful contributions to this report and Tom Bettge for providing us with a figure. The panel would also like to acknowledge useful discussions with Andy White, Rod Oldehoeft, Tom Ackerman, Chris Davis, Dennis Joseph, Chin-Hoh Moeng, David Parsons, Chris Snyder, Wojtek Grabowski, Xiaoqing Wu, Jim Hoke, Bill McCracken, and Bruce Webster.
The authoring group would like to thank all of those who participated in the review and provided input to the discussions at the August 21-23, 2000, workshop. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
ERIC BARRON, Pennsylvania State University, University Park
ALAN BETTS, Atmospheric Research, Pittsford, Vermont
DAVID DENT, European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom
INEZ FUNG, University of California, Berkeley
ANTHONY HOLLINGSWORTH, European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, Redding, United Kingdom
JERRY MAHLMAN, National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey
DANIEL SAREWITZ, Columbia University, New York, New York
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Eugenia Kalnay, University of Maryland, College Park, appointed by the Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources, and Alexander Flax, Potomac, Maryland, appointed by the NRC's Report Review Committee, who were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.