PROSPECTIVE EVALUATION OF APPLIED ENERGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT AT DOE (PHASE ONE)
A FIRST LOOK FORWARD
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report and the study on which it is based were supported by Contract No. DE-AM01-99PO80016, Task Order No. 27, DE-AT36-03GO13073, between the U.S. Department of Energy and the National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
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COMMITTEE ON PROSPECTIVE BENEFITS OF DOE’S ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND FOSSIL ENERGY R&D PROGRAMS
ROBERT W.
FRI,
Chair,
Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C.
LINDA R. COHEN,
University of California, Irvine
JAMES CORMAN,
Energy Alternatives Studies, Inc., Schenectady, New York
PAUL A. DeCOTIS,
New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, Albany, New York
WESLEY L. HARRIS,
NAE,1 Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
MARTHA A. KREBS,
Science Strategies, Los Angeles, California
GEORGE W. NORTON,
Virginia Tech, Blacksburg
ROSALIE RUEGG,
Technology Impact Assessment (TIA) Consulting, Inc., Emerald Isle, North Carolina
MAXINE L. SAVITZ,
NAE, Honeywell, Inc. (retired), Los Angeles, California
JACK S. SIEGEL,
Energy Resources International, Inc., Washington, D.C.
JAMES E. SMITH,
Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
TERRY SURLES,
Electricity Innovation Institute, Palo Alto, California
JAMES L. SWEENEY,
Stanford University, California
JOHN J. WISE,
NAE, Mobil Research & Development Company (retired), Princeton, New Jersey
Project Staff
Board on Energy and Environmental Systems (BEES)
MARTIN OFFUTT, Study Director
ALAN CRANE, Senior Program Officer
JAMES J. ZUCCHETTO, Director, BEES
PANOLA GOLSON, Program Associate
Board on Earth Sciences and Resources (BESR)
TAMARA DICKINSON, Senior Program Officer
BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS
ROBERT W.
FRI,
Vice Chair,
Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C.
ALLEN J. BARD,
NAS,2 University of Texas, Austin
DAVID L. BODDE,
Clemson University, South Carolina
PHILIP R. CLARK,
NAE, GPU Nuclear Corporation (retired), Boonton, New Jersey
E. LINN DRAPER, JR.,
NAE, American Electric Power, Inc., Austin, Texas
CHARLES GOODMAN,
Southern Company Services, Birmingham, Alabama
DAVID G. HAWKINS,
Natural Resources Defense Council, Washington, D.C.
MARTHA A. KREBS,
Science Strategies, Los Angeles, California
GERALD L. KULCINSKI,
NAE, University of Wisconsin, Madison
DAVID K. OWENS,
Edison Electric Institute, Washington, D.C.
WILLIAM F. POWERS,
NAE, Ford Motor Company (retired), Ann Arbor, Michigan
TONY PROPHET,
Global Supply Carrier, Farmington, Connecticut
MICHAEL P. RAMAGE,
NAE, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company (retired), Moorestown, New Jersey
EDWARD S. RUBIN,
Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
MAXINE L. SAVITZ,
NAE, Honeywell, Inc. (retired), Los Angeles, California
PHILIP R. SHARP,
Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
SCOTT W. TINKER,
University of Texas, Austin
Staff
JAMES J. ZUCCHETTO, Director
ALAN CRANE, Senior Program Officer
MARTIN OFFUTT, Senior Program Officer
DANA CAINES, Financial Associate
PANOLA GOLSON, Program Associate
Acknowledgments
The Committee on Prospective Benefits of DOE’s Energy Efficiency and Fossil Energy R&D Programs wishes to acknowledge and thank the many individuals who contributed significantly of their time and effort to this National Research Council (NRC) study. In particular, the Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy and Office of Fossil Energy supplied extensive data and analyses for this project. Their valuable information on and insight into advanced technologies and development initiatives assisted the committee in formulating the recommendations included in this report. The committee particularly commends the members of the expert panels, who carried out their difficult assignments with professionalism and discretion. One of the signal accomplishments of this project has been to show that such panels can be formed and complete their work quickly and with the highest standards of quality.
The chair is particularly grateful to the members of the committee and to the staff of the National Research Council. This report is in every sense a product of the work of the committee members, who synthesized a number of complex issues into a coherent whole with extraordinary skill. The NRC staff included Martin Offutt, Alan Crane, and James Zucchetto of the Board on Energy and Environmental Systems, and Tamara Dickinson of the Board on Earth Sciences and Resources. The complicated committee and panel structure of this project made special demands on them, which they consistently met. Finally, Panola Golson supported the entire effort in exemplary fashion.
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
William Agnew, NAE, General Motors (retired),
William Fulkerson, ORNL (retired) and University of Tennessee,
Clark W. Gellings, Electric Power Research Institute,
Frank Incropera, NAE, University of Notre Dame,
Trevor Jones, NAE, Biomec, Inc.,
James Katzer, NAE, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering (retired),
Charles Lave, University of California, Irvine,
Lester Lave, IOM, Carnegie Mellon University,
James Dexter Peach, General Accounting Office (retired),
Tony Prophet, Carrier Corporation,
Burton Richter, NAS, Stanford University, and
Robert Socolow, Princeton University.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Lawrence Papay, NAE, Science Applications International Corporation (retired), and John Ahearne, NAE, Sigma Xi. Appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
Tables and Figures
TABLES
3-1 |
Effect of Applying a 3 Percent Discount Rate to a Lump Sum Cash Payment, |
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3-2 |
Expected Benefits Calculation Given Three Possible Outcomes, |
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3-3 |
Expected Benefits Calculation Given Four Possible Outcomes, |
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3-4 |
Expected Benefits Calculation Given Four Possible Outcomes, One of Them “Extraordinary,” |
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3-5 |
Effect of Next-Best Technology on Expected Benefits, |
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F-1 |
Benefits Corresponding to $50 Million per Year Budget (Full Funding), |
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F-2 |
Benefits Corresponding to $25 Million per Year Budget (Reduced Funding), |
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F-3 |
Probabilities of Technical Success at Selected R&D Funding Levels, |
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G-1 |
Top-Level Carbon Sequestration Roadmap, |
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G-2 |
Actual, Requested, and Expected Funding, by Year, for Carbon Sequestration R&D, |
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G-3 |
Cost of Electricity With and Without Capture and Compression, |
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G-4 |
Range of Electricity Cost Increases Used by the Panel, |
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H-1 |
Fuel Cell Program Probability of Achieving Ultimate Goals, |
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H-2 |
Characteristics of Fuel Cell Distributed Generation Versus Next-Best Technology, |
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H-3 |
Benefits Calculations for Solid State Energy Conversion Alliance (SECA) Program for Three Global Scenarios, |
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H-4 |
Benefits Calculated by DOE for All Combinations of Global Scenarios and R&D Success, |
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H-5 |
Method 1 for Calculating Benefits, |
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H-6 |
Inputs and Assumptions Used in Method 1, |
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H-7 |
Method 2 for Calculating Benefits, |
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H-8 |
Capital Costs and Heat Rates Used in Method 2, |
FIGURES
2-1 |
Matrix for assessing benefits and costs retrospectively, |
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2-2 |
Results matrix for evaluating benefits and costs prospectively, |
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3-1 |
Results matrix for evaluating benefits and costs prospectively, |
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3-2 |
Decision tree, |
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3-3 |
Example of decision tree applied to advanced lighting programs, |
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3-4 |
Benefits of energy efficiency advances, |
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3-5 |
Benefits of energy efficiency advances, |
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3-6 |
Benefits of resource supply enhancement, |
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5-1 |
Probability of technical success, |
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5-2 |
SSL Program prospective benefits, reduced budget, |
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1 |
Matrix for assessing benefits and costs retrospectively, |
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2 |
Matrix for assessing benefits and costs prospectively, |
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E-1 |
Matrix for assessing benefits and costs prospectively, |
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F-1 |
Trends in solid state lighting efficacy, |
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F-2 |
Solid state lighting economic benefits at a budget of $25 million per year, |
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F-3 |
Probability of technical success, |
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F-4 |
SSL Program prospective benefits, full funding, |
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F-5 |
SSL Program prospective benefits, reduced budget, |
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G-1 |
Schematic illustration of benefits calculation, |
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G-2 |
Cost and amount of zero-emissions electricity based on simplified calculations roughly matching DOE’s assumptions, |
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G-3 |
Cost and amount of zero-emissions electricity for one possible path through the decision tree, |
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G-4 |
The range of expected cost improvements predicted by the panel members, |
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G-5 |
Panelists’ assessment of cost reductions translated into expected benefits with and without sequestration risk, |
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G-6 |
Prospective benefits matrix for the Carbon Sequestration Program, |
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H-1 |
Prospective benefits matrix for the vehicle fuel cell program, |
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H-2 |
Prospective benefits matrix for the Solid State Energy Conversion Alliance (SECA) program, |
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J-1 |
Template for presenting panel results, |
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K-1 |
Program Assessment Summary (PAS) form, to be completed by DOE, |