Tsunami Warning and Preparedness
An Assessment of the U.S. Tsunami Program and the Nation’s Preparedness Efforts
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by the University of Alaska Fairbanks under contract number UAF-08-0050, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under contract number DG133W08SE4972, and the National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-13753-9 (Book)
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-13753-5 (Book)
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-13754-6 (PDF)
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-13754-3 (PDF)
Library of Congress Control Number: 2010939990
Front Cover: Image of the North Pacific Ocean depicts predicted maximum wave lengths. Contour lines indicate the travel times in hours of the leading tsunami wave generated by an earthquake near the Kuril Islands on November 15, 2006, with permission from Vasily Titov, NOAA/PMEL. Image of the tsunami hazard zone warning sign was provided by Jenifer Rhoades of NOAA. Tsunami public education: A small-group discussion between a seaside, Oregon, tsunami outreach coordinator and middle school student. Image courtesy of DOGAMI. Image of the DART buoy was taken from http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/images/dart_buoy-wave2.jpg, NOAA.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
COMMITTEE ON THE REVIEW OF THE TSUNAMI WARNING AND FORECAST SYSTEM AND OVERVIEW OF THE NATION’S TSUNAMI PREPAREDNESS
JOHN A. ORCUTT (Chair),
University of California, San Diego, La Jolla
MARTHA R. GRABOWSKI (Vice-chair),
Le Moyne College, Syracuse, New York, and Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York
BRIAN F. ATWATER,
U.S. Geological Survey, Seattle, Washington
ANN BOSTROM,
University of Washington, Seattle
GEORGE CRAWFORD,
Washington State Emergency Management Division (Retired), Camp Murray
RICHARD K. EISNER,
Research Center for Disaster Reduction Systems, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan
JIAN LIN,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
DOUGLAS S. LUTHER*,
University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu
HUGH B. MILBURN,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Retired), Lake Forest Park, Washington
DENNIS S. MILETI,
University of Colorado (Retired), Rancho Mirage, California
EMILE A. OKAL*,
Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois
COSTAS E. SYNOLAKIS,
University of Southern California, Los Angeles
NATHAN J. WOOD,
U.S. Geological Survey, Vancouver, Washington
HARRY YEH,
Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon
Staff
CLAUDIA MENGELT, Study Director
SUSAN PARK, Senior Program Officer (until December 2009)
DEBORAH GLICKSON, Program Officer (from January 2010)
PAMELA LEWIS, Administrative Coordinator
SHERRIE FORREST, Research Associate
JEREMY JUSTICE, Senior Program Assistant
HELENA ANTOUN, Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Fellow (from September to December 2009)
IAN BROSNAN, Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Fellow (from January to April 2010)
OCEAN STUDIES BOARD
DONALD F. BOESCH (Chair),
University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Cambridge
EDWARD A. BOYLE,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
JORGE E. CORREDOR,
University of Puerto Rico, Mayagüez
KEITH R. CRIDDLE,
University of Alaska Fairbanks, Juneau
JODY W. DEMING,
University of Washington, Seattle
MARY (MISSY) H. FEELEY,
ExxonMobil Exploration Company, Houston, Texas
ROBERT HALLBERG,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Princeton University, New Jersey
DEBRA HERNANDEZ,
Hernandez and Company, Isle of Palms, South Carolina
ROBERT A. HOLMAN,
Oregon State University, Corvallis
KIHO KIM,
American University, Washington, DC
BARBARA A. KNUTH,
Cornell University, Ithaca, New York
ROBERT A. LAWSON,
Science Applications International Corporation, San Diego, California
GEORGE I. MATSUMOTO,
Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, California
JAY S. PEARLMAN,
The Boeing Company (retired), Port Angeles, Washington
ANDREW A. ROSENBERG,
Conservation International, Arlington, Virginia
DANIEL L. RUDNICK,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
ROBERT J. SERAFIN,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
ANNE M. TREHU,
Oregon State University, Corvallis
PETER L. TYACK,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
DAWN J. WRIGHT,
Oregon State University, Corvallis
JAMES A. YODER,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
Staff
SUSAN ROBERTS, Director
CLAUDIA MENGELT, Senior Program Officer
KIM WADDELL, Senior Program Officer
DEBORAH GLICKSON, Program Officer
MARTHA MCCONNELL, Program Officer
SHUBHA BANSKOTA, Financial Associate
PAMELA LEWIS, Administrative Coordinator
SHERRIE FORREST, Research Associate
JEREMY JUSTICE, Senior Program Assistant
EMILY OLIVER, Program Assistant
Acknowledgments
This report was greatly enhanced by the participants of the meetings held as part of this study. To begin with, the committee would like to thank Jenifer Rhoades (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA]) for her tremendous assistance with providing supporting documentation from across NOAA and her presentation. The committee would like to acknowledge the efforts of those who gave presentations at meetings: Susan Asturias (San Diego County Office of Emergency Services), Rodey Batiza (National Science Foundation), Eddie Bernard (NOAA), Linda Bourque (University of California, Los Angeles), Gary Carver (Humboldt State University), Kwok Fai Cheung (University of Hawaii), Herb Dragert (Geological Survey of Canada), Paula Dunbar (NOAA), John Ferree (NOAA), James Goltz (California Emergency Management Agency), Roger Hansen (Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks), Barry Hirshorn (NOAA), Paul Huang (NOAA), William Knight (NOAA), William Leith (U.S. Geological Survey), Michael Lindell (Texas A&M University), Michael Mahoney (Federal Emergency Management Agency), Chris Maier (NOAA), Charles McCreery (NOAA), Susan McLean (NOAA), Anu Mittal (Government Accountability Office), David Oppenheimer (U.S. Geological Survey), Ervin Petty (Alaska Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management), George Priest (Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries), Karlene Roberts (University of California, Berkeley), John Sorensen (Oak Ridge National Laboratory), Adam Stein (NOAA), Elena Suleimani (Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks), Uri S. ten Brink (U.S. Geological Survey), Vasily Titov (NOAA), Louis Uccellini (NOAA), Christa von Hillebrandt (University of Puerto Rico, Mayagüez), Stuart Weinstein (NOAA), Paul Whitmore (NOAA), Gene Whitney (Office of Science and Technology Policy), Jay Wilson (Clackamas County Emergency Management), Rick Wilson (California Geological Survey). These talks helped set the stage for fruitful discussions in the closed sessions that followed.
The committee is also grateful to a number of people who provided important discussion and/or material for this report: Leighton Ah Cook (Hawaii State Civil Defense), Christine Brown (Rochester Institute of Technology), Laura Kong (International Tsunami Information Center), Aurelio Mercado-Irizarry (University of Puerto Rico), Vickie Nadolski (NOAA), Therese Pierce (NOAA), Kevin Richards (Hawaii State Civil Defense), John Schelling (Washington Emergency Management Division), Edward Teixeira (Hawaii State Civil Defense), Tim Walsh (Washington State Department of Natural Resources), Ray Willemann (Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology), Brian Yanagi (International Tsunami Information Center), Joseph Zhang (Oregon Health and Science University).
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as
possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report:
MANI K. CHANDY, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena
LORI DENGLER, Humboldt State University, Arcata, California
ERIC GEIST, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California
FRANK I. GONZÁLEZ, University of Washington, Seattle
EVE GRUNTFEST, University of Oklahoma, Norman
ARLEEN A. HILL, University of Memphis, Tennessee
PHILIP LI-FAN LIU, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York
CARL MAIDA, University of California, Los Angeles
FREDRIC RAICHLEN, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena
PETER M. SHEARER, University of California, San Diego
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Robin K. McGuire, William Lettis and Associates, Inc., appointed by the Divison on Earth and Life Studies, and Robert A. Dalrymple, Johns Hopkins University, appointed by the Report Review Committee, who were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.