TRANSITIONS TO ALTERNATIVE TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGIES— PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by Contract DE-AT01-06EE11206, TO#18, Subtask 3, between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number 13: 978-0-309-14850-4
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Cover: Images (adapted) courtesy of California Cars Initiative (left) and U.S. Department of Energy (right).
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COMMITTEE ON ASSESSMENT OF RESOURCE NEEDS FOR FUEL CELL AND HYDROGEN TECHNOLOGIES
MICHAEL P. RAMAGE, NAE,1 Chair,
ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company (retired), Moorestown, New Jersey
RAKESH AGRAWAL,
NAE, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana
DAVID L. BODDE,
Clemson University, Clemson, South Carolina
DAVID FRIEDMAN,
Union of Concerned Scientists, Washington, D.C.
SUSAN FUHS,
Conundrum Consulting, Hermosa Beach, California
JUDI GREENWALD,
Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Washington, D.C.
ROBERT L. HIRSCH,
Management Information Services, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia
JAMES R. KATZER,
NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Washington, D.C.
GENE NEMANICH,
ChevronTexaco Technology Ventures (retired), Scottsdale, Arizona
JOAN OGDEN,
University of California, Davis, Davis, California
LAWRENCE T. PAPAY,
NAE, Science Applications International Corporation (retired), La Jolla, California
IAN W.H. PARRY,
Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C.
WILLIAM F. POWERS,
NAE, Ford Motor Company (retired), Boca Raton, Florida
EDWARD S. RUBIN,
Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
ROBERT W. SHAW, JR.
Aretê Corporation, Center Harbor, New Hampshire
ARNOLD F. STANCELL,2
NAE, Georgia Institute of Technology, Greenwich, Connecticut
TONY WU,
Southern Company, Wilsonville, Alabama
Consultant
JAMES CANADA
Project Staff
Board on Energy and Environmental Systems
ALAN CRANE, Study Director
JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Director,
BEES
JONATHAN YANGER, Senior Project Assistant
NAE Program Office
PENELOPE GIBBS, Senior Program Associate
BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS
DOUGLAS M. CHAPIN, Chair,
NAE,1 MPR Associates, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia
ROBERT W. FRI,2 Vice Chair,
Resources for the Future (senior fellow emeritus), Washington, D.C.
RAKESH AGRAWAL,
NAE, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana
WILLIAM F. BANHOLZER,
The Dow Chemical Company, Midland, Michigan
ANDREW BROWN, JR.,
NAE, Delphi Corporation, Troy, Michigan
MARILYN BROWN,
Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta
MICHAEL L. CORRADINI,
NAE, University of Wisconsin, Madison
PAUL DeCOTIS,
Long Island Power Authority, Albany, New York
E. LINN DRAPER, JR.,
NAE, American Electric Power, Inc. (emeritus), Austin, Texas
CHRISTINE EHLIG-ECONOMIDES,
NAE, Texas A&M University, College Station
WILLIAM FRIEND,
NAE, Bechtel Group Inc. (retired), McLean, Virginia
CHARLES H. GOODMAN,2
Southern Company (retired), Birmingham, Alabama
SHERRI GOODMAN,
CNA, Alexandria, Virginia
NARAIN G. HINGORANI,
NAE,
Consultant,
Los Altos Hills, California
MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER,
Princeton University, New Jersey
WILLIAM F. POWERS,2
NAE, Ford Motor Company (retired), Ann Arbor, Michigan
MICHAEL P. RAMAGE,
NAE, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company (retired), Moorestown, New Jersey
DAN REICHER,
Google.org, San Francisco, California
BERNARD ROBERTSON,
NAE, DaimlerChrysler Corporation (retired), Bloomfield Hills, Michigan
MAXINE SAVITZ,
NAE, Honeywell, Inc. (retired), Los Angeles, California
MARK H. THIEMENS,
NAS, University of California, San Diego, California
SCOTT W. TINKER,2
University of Texas, Austin, Texas
RICHARD WHITE,
Oppenheimer & Company, New York City
Staff
JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Director
DUNCAN BROWN, Senior Program Officer
DANA CAINES, Financial Associate
ALAN CRANE, Senior Program Officer
JOHN HOLMES, Senior Program Officer
LaNITA JONES, Program Associate
JASON ORTEGA, Senior Project Assistant (until December 2009)
MADELINE WOODRUFF, Senior Program Officer
JONATHAN YANGER, Senior Project Assistant
Preface
The Committee on Assessment of Resource Needs for Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Technologies completed its report Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies—A Focus on Hydrogen (The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.) in 2008. Subsequently, the U.S. Department of Energy requested the National Research Council (NRC) to expand that analysis to plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). The committee reconvened to examine the issues associated with PHEVs and wrote this report in response to that additional task.
The nation has only a few options for making great reductions in its dependence on oil and emissions of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, from the transportation sector. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are one, and electric vehicles are another. Both have great potential but also serious disadvantages and uncertainties. In particular, costs for both are currently very high, and both have limited range.
In comparison, PHEVs have some attractive characteristics. Unlike hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, they can be deployed in the marketplace without simultaneously building an infrastructure to supply the energy to operate them, and unlike all-electric battery vehicles, drivers will not have to worry about charging the batteries on a long trip. However, PHEVs have their own limitations, as discussed in this report.
It is unusual for the NRC to reconvene a committee organized for one purpose to investigate another, but this is an unusual committee in another way, too. I have never worked with a committee that was so dedicated, knowledgeable, and talented. This entire additional task has taken about 6 months, an extraordinarily fast pace for a complex issue. The committee members have my deepest appreciation. The project also was very fortunate in having as its study director Alan Crane, who contributed immeasurably with his experience and expertise and his ability to keep the whole process moving on schedule.
The committee operated under the auspices of the NRC Board on Energy and Environmental Systems and is grateful for the able assistance of James Zucchetto and Jonathan Yanger of the NRC staff, and Penelope Gibbs of the National Academy of Engineering Program Office staff.
Michael P. Ramage
Acknowledgments
The Committee on Assessment of Resource Needs for Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Technologies is grateful to the many individuals who contributed their time and efforts to this National Research Council (NRC) study. The presentations at committee meetings provided valuable information and insights that enhanced the committee’s understanding of the technologies and barriers involved. The committee thanks the following individuals and companies for their briefings and information:
Shinichi Abe, Toyota Motor Corporation,
Dick Cromie, Southern California Edison,
Bob Graham, Southern California Edison,
Dave Howell, U.S. Department of Energy,
Tien Nguyen, U.S. Department of Energy,
Phil Patterson, U.S. Department of Energy,
Bill Reinert, Toyota Motor Sales, USA, Inc.,
Sandy Thomas, H2Gen,
Mark Verbrugge, General Motors,
David Vieau, A123 Systems,
Michael Wang, Argonne National Laboratory,
Jake Ward, U.S. Department of Energy,
Compact Power, Inc.
Delphi Corporation,
DENSO International America, Inc., and
Ford Motor Corporation.
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Paul Blumberg, Consultant,
Andrew Brown, Delphi Corporation,
Doug Chapin, MPR Associates,
John German, International Council for Clean Transportation,
Charles Goodman, Consultant,
Paul Gray, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Daniel Greenbaum, Health Effects Institute,
Trevor Jones, ElectroSonics Medical, Incorporated,
Maryann Keller, Maryann Keller and Associates, and
Brijesh Vyas, LGS Innovations, Limited Licensing Corporation.
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Elisabeth M. Drake (NAE), Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Appointed by the National Research Council, she was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
Contents
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1 |
Appendix F was added to this report after release of the prepublication version to clarify how the cost estimates were made. |
Tables, Figures, and Boxes
TABLES
S.1 |
Estimated Future PHEV Incremental Costs, |
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S.2 |
PHEV Transition Times and Costs, |
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2.1 |
Characteristics of Li-Ion Batteries Involving Different Chemistries, |
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2.2 |
Estimates of Li-Ion Battery Performance Parameters for a PHEV-40, |
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2.3 |
Estimated Battery Performance Properties for a PHEV-10, |
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2.4 |
Projected Incremental Cost of Components for PHEV-40 for Production in 2010 Using Current Technology Compared with an Equivalent Current Nonhybrid Vehicle, |
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2.5 |
Projected Incremental Cost of Components for PHEV-10 for Production in 2010 Using Current Technology Compared with an Equivalent Current Nonhybrid Vehicle, |
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2.6 |
Percent Projected Cost Reductions for Different Components with Increased Production and Learning by Doing, |
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2.7 |
Estimated PHEV Incremental Costs, |
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3.1 |
Approximate Charging Time as a Function of Vehicle Size and Electric Driving Range, |
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4.1 |
Energy Requirements of Midsized Vehicles, |
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4.2 |
Estimated Retail Prices of PHEVs Incremental to Retail Price of Reference Case Gasoline Car, |
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4.3 |
PHEV Transition Times and Costs, |
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4.4 |
Comparison of Transition Costs for PHEV and HFCV Cases, |
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C.1 |
Ratio of Energy Use in PHEVs Compared to Energy Use in Gasoline HEVs, |
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C.2 |
Input Variables for Sensitivity Study, |
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C.3 |
Range of Inputs Normalized to Base Value, |
FIGURES
S.1 |
Projections of number of PHEVs in the U.S. light-duty fleet, |
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S.2 |
Gasoline use for PHEV-10s and PHEV-40s introduced at the Maximum Practical rate and the Efficiency Case from the 2008 Hydrogen Report, |
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S.3 |
GHG emissions for cases combining high-efficiency conventional vehicles and HEVs with mixed PHEV or HFCV vehicles for the two different grid mixes, |
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S.4 |
Gasoline consumption for scenarios that combine conventional vehicle efficiency, PHEVs, biofuels, and HFCVs, |
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2.1 |
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle concepts, |
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2.2 |
Differences in state of charge (SOC) requirements for PHEV batteries and HEV batteries, |
3.1 |
Net generation of U.S. electric power industry, 2007, |
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3.2 |
Electric generation by fuel in four cases, 2007 and 2030, |
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4.1 |
Number of light-duty vehicles in the fleet for the Reference Case, |
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4.2 |
On-road fuel economy of vehicles for the Reference Case, |
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4.3 |
Types and numbers of light-duty vehicles for the Efficiency Case, |
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4.4 |
Fuel economy of new light-duty vehicles for the Efficiency Case, |
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4.5 |
Biofuel supply for the Biofuels-Intensive Case, |
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4.6 |
Penetration of PHEVs in the U.S. light-duty fleet, |
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4.7 |
Number of vehicles for the Portfolio Cases, a mix of PHEVs and efficient ICEVs and HEVs, introduced at the Maximum Practical rate, |
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4.8 |
Retail prices for PHEVs for probable and optimistic rates of technology progress, compared to the Reference Case vehicle (conventional ICEV), |
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4.9 |
Price of gasoline over time and at electricity price of 8 cents per kilowatt-hour, |
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4.10 |
Cash flow analysis for PHEV-10, Maximum Practical Case, Optimistic technical assumptions, |
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4.11 |
Gasoline consumption for PHEV-10s or PHEV-40s introduced at Maximum Practical and Probable penetration rates, |
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4.12 |
Gasoline use for the Reference Case and the Efficiency Case and when PHEVs are included in an already highly efficient fleet, |
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4.13 |
Gasoline use for scenarios that combine efficiency, biofuels, and either PHEVs or HFCVs, |
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4.14 |
GHG emissions from the future electric grid, |
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4.15 |
GHG emissions for PHEVs at the market penetrations shown in Figure 4.6 for the grid mix estimated by EIA, |
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4.16 |
GHG emissions for PHEVs at the market penetrations shown in Figure 4.6 for the grid mix estimated by EPRI/NRDC, |
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4.17 |
GHG emissions for cases combining ICEV Efficiency Case and PHEV or HFCV vehicles at the Maximum Practical penetration rate with the EPRI/NRDC grid mix, |
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4.18 |
GHG emissions for cases combining ICEV Efficiency Case and PHEV or HFCV vehicles at the Maximum Practical penetration rate with the EIA grid mix, |
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4.19 |
GHG emissions for cases combining the ICEV Efficiency Case and PHEV or HFCV vehicles for the EPRI/NRDC grid mix, |
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4.20 |
GHG emissions for scenarios combining ICEV Efficiency Case, Biofuels Case, and PHEVs or HFCVs, for the EIA grid mix, |
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4.21 |
GHG emissions for scenarios combining ICEV Efficiency Case, Biofuels Case, and PHEVs or HFCVs for the EPRI/ NRDC grid mix, |
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C.1 |
Number of vehicles in the Hydrogen Report Reference Case, |
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C.2 |
Fuel economy for vehicles in the Hydrogen Report Reference Case, |
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C.3 |
Number of vehicles in the ICEV Efficiency Case (Hydrogen Report Case 2), |
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C.4 |
Fuel economy for the ICEV Efficiency Case (Hydrogen Report Case 2), |
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C.5 |
Biofuel supply for the Biofuels-Intensive Case (Hydrogen Report Case 3), |
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C.6 |
Numbers of light-duty vehicles for portfolio approach, where PHEVs are combined with efficient ICEVs and HEVs, |
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C.7 |
PHEV operating modes, |
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C.8 |
National VMT fraction available for substitution by a PHEV using 100 percent electric charge-depleting mode, |
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C.9 |
Tank-to-wheels energy use in advanced vehicles, assuming 44 percent blending during charge-depleting operation, |
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C.10 |
Energy consumption in a PHEV-30 as electricity and gasoline for different blending strategies in CD mode, |
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C.11 |
Estimated on-road, fleet-average gasoline consumption for ICEVs, HEVs, and PHEVs in this study, |
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C.12 |
Estimated fleet-average electricity use over drive cycle for PHEVs in this study, |
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C.13 |
Cash flow analysis for PHEV-40, Maximum Practical case, Optimistic technical assumptions, |
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C.14 |
Cash flow analysis for PHEV-40, Probable case, Probable technical assumptions, |
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C.15 |
Cash flow analysis for PHEV-10, Maximum Practical case, Optimistic technical assumptions, |
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C.16 |
Cash flow analysis for PHEV-10, Probable case, Probable technical assumptions, |
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C.17 |
Cash flow analysis for mixed case (70 percent PHEV-10s and 30 percent PHEV-40s), Maximum Practical case, Optimistic technical assumptions, |
C.18 |
Cash flow analysis for mixed case (70 percent PHEV-10s and 30 percent PHEV-40s), Probable Case, Probable technical assumptions, |
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C.19 |
PHEV-10: Sensitivity of break-even year to changes in input variables, |
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C.20 |
PHEV-40: Sensitivity of break-even year to changes in input variables, |
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C.21 |
PHEV-10: Sensitivity of buydown cost to changes in input variables, |
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C.22 |
PHEV-40: Sensitivity of buydown cost to changes in input variables, |
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C.23 |
GHG emissions from the future electric grid, |
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C.24 |
Hydrogen GHG emissions per megajoule of energy, |
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F.1 |
Historical cost reduction experience for NiMH battery packs and for Li-ion battery packs, |
BOXES