SESSION 1
SEPTEMBER 26-28, 2012
WASHINGTON, D.C.
September 26, 2012
0900 |
Vision for the Workshop
Maj Gen William Chambers, Assistant Chief of Staff for Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration, Headquarters U. S. Air Force, Workshop Co-Champion |
0930 |
Welcome and Introductions
Maj Gen (Ret.) Gerald Perryman, Jr., Independent Consultant |
1015 |
Incentives for Nuclear Non-peer to Consider “First Use” of Nuclear Weapons During a Conventional Conflict with the United States or its Allies Dr. Daryl Press, Associate Professor, Department of Government, Dartmouth College |
1115 |
Tailored Deterrence Dr. Barry Schneider, Retired Director, U.S. Air Force Counterproliferation Center |
1215 | Continue Discussions with lunch available |
1300 |
AFGSC/CC Vision of 21st Century Deterrence Lt Gen James Kowalski, Commander, Air Force Global Strike Command, Workshop Co-Champion |
1400 |
Saddam Hussein’s Views on the Role/Utility of Nuclear Weapons and Perceptions Influencing His Decision Making Mr. David Palkki, Deputy Director, Conflict Records Research Center, National Defense University |
1515 |
Where Are We Now? What Is Useful? Mr. Hunter Hustus, Technical Advisor, HQ USAF/A10—Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration |
1615 |
Workshop Committee Feedback to Day 1 Presentations All |
1700 | Adjourn |
September 27, 2012
0900 |
Actor-Specific Behavioral Models of Adversaries: A Key Requirement for Tailored Deterrence Dr. Jerrold Post, Professor of Psychiatry, Political Psychology, and International Affairs and Director of Political Psychology Program, George Washington University |
1015 |
Panel 1—Analytic-based Approaches for Deterrence Analysis Dr. Rob Axtell, Chair, Computational Social Science Department, George Mason University Dr. Rita Parhad, Associate Partner, Monitor360 Dr. Rafael Alonso, Vice President and Division Manager, Autonomy and Analytics Division, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) |
Moderator: Dr. Paul Davis, The RAND Corporation | |
1215 |
Continue Discussions with lunch available |
1315 |
Panel 2—Deterrence Concept Updates and Approaches Dr. Elbridge Colby, Research Analyst Mr. Patrick McKenna, Chief, Plans Evaluation and Research Division, U.S. Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM) Mr. Orde Kittrie, Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies and Professor of Law, Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law, Arizona State University |
Moderator: Dr. Michael Wheeler, Institute for Defense Analyses | |
1530 |
Workshop Committee Feedback to Day 2 Presentations All |
1700 | Adjourn |
September 28, 2012
0900 |
Panel 3—Non-Traditional Approaches to Deterrence Dr. Diane DiEuliis, Deputy Director, Office of Policy and Planning, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services CAPT (Ret.) Gail Kulisch, Owner and Managing Principal of BTG Ventures, LLC Dr. John Sawyer, Program Manager/Senior Researcher, National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, University of Maryland |
|
Moderator: Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois, National Security Innovations, Inc. |
1100 |
Workshop Committee Feedback to Day 3 Presentations All |
1200 | Continue Discussions with lunch available |
1230 |
Capstone: Future Strategic Nuclear Deterrence and National Security Challenges for the United States Dr. C. Paul Robinson, President Emeritus, Sandia National Laboratories |
1300 | Planning for Session 2 |
1400 |
Adjourn |
SESSION 2
JANUARY 29-31, 2013
WASHINGTON, D.C.
Objectives
1. Receive briefings on topics related to the workshop terms of reference (TOR)
2. Participate in interactive panel discussions
3. Discuss potential terms of reference for follow-on National Academies’ study
January 29, 2013
0900 |
Welcome and Introductions Maj Gen (Ret.) Gerald Perryman, Jr., Independent Consultant |
0905 |
Workshop Co-Champion Opening Remarks Maj Gen William Chambers, Assistant Chief of Staff for Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration, Headquarters U.S. Air Force |
0935 |
An Overview of Simple Decision Heuristics in Uncertain Environments Dr. Peter Todd, Professor, Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Indiana University |
1050 |
Panel 1—Scenario-based Analytic Tools Lt Gen Robert Elder (USAF, Ret.), Research Professor, George Mason University Ms. Anne Russell, Director of Social Systems Analysis, SAIC |
|
Moderator: Dr. Tony Cox, Cox Associates, LLC |
1200 |
Continue Discussions with lunch available |
1300 |
Panel 2—Leadership Profiling Approaches Dr. David Winter, Personality and Social Contexts Chair and Professor of Psychology, University of Michigan Dr. Stephen Walker, Professor Emeritus of Political Sciences, Arizona State University Dr. Margaret Hermann, Director, Moynihan Institute of Global Affairs, Syracuse University |
|
Moderator: Dr. Jerrold Post, George Washington University |
1515 |
Reaction to Day 1 Presentations All |
1700 |
Adjourn |
January 30, 2013
0900 |
Achieving a Politically and Technically Sustainable Nuclear Posture for the 21st Century Lt Gen (Ret.) Frank Klotz, Senior Fellow for Strategic Studies and Arms Control, Council on Foreign Relations |
1015 |
Underlying Analyses for USSTRATCOM Force Structure Mr. Patrick McKenna, Chief, Plans Evaluation and Research Division, USSTRATCOM |
1115 |
Congressional Perspectives on U.S. Strategic Deterrence Ms. Amy Woolf, Specialist in Nuclear Weapons Policy, Congressional Research Service |
1215 |
Recent Studies and Analyses with lunch available Maj Justin Sorice, Air Force Office of Studies and Analyses, Assessments and Lessons Learned |
1315 |
Panel 3—Threat Anticipation and Intelligence Analysis Dr. David Hamon, Principal, National and International Security Strategies, Analytic Services, Inc. Dr. Rich Wagner, Jr., Emeritus Technical Staff, Los Alamos National Laboratory |
|
Moderator: Dr. Mike Wheeler, Institute for Defense Analyses |
1530 |
Reaction to Day 2 Presentations All |
1700 |
Adjourn |
January 31, 2013
0900 |
General Discussion of Potential TOR for Follow-on Consensus Study All |
1015 |
Snapshot of Workshop Committee Feedback from Day 1 and Day 2 Mr. Norm Haller, Rapporteur |
1115 |
Capstone Remarks: Strategic Deterrence Capabilities for the 21st Century Security Environment Gen Larry Welch (USAF, Ret.), Trustee Emeritus and former President, Institute for Defense Analyses |
1215 |
Continue Discussions with lunch available |
1300 |
Adjourn |