NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the panel responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an advisor to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with the general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice-chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
The work was sponsored by The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations's Office of Global Programs through the National Science Foundation Grant No. OCE-9313563-R. Such support does not constitute an endorsement of the views in this report by the sponsors.
Cover art by Winslow Homer, titled "Eight Bells." Etching sculpted by John Dois Andrews, the Intaglio Guild. Special thanks to John Morrell.
Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 94-65573
International Standard Book Number 0-309-05043-X
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OCEAN STUDIES BOARD
Current Members
WILLIAM MERRELL, JR.,
Texas A&M University,
Chair
DONALD F. BOESCH,
University of Maryland
KENNETH BRINK,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
ROBERT CANNON,
Stanford University
BILIANA CICIN-SAIN,
University of Delaware
WILLIAM CURRY,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
GORDON EATON,
Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory
RANA FINE,
University of Miami
MICHAEL FREILICH,
Oregon State University
GORDON GREVE,
Amoco Production Company
ARTHUR R. M. NOWELL,
University of Washington
FRANK RICHTER,
University of Chicago
BRIAN ROTHSCHILD,
University of Maryland
PAUL STOFFA,
University of Texas
Members until December 31, 1993
CARL I. WUNSCH,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Chair
PETER G. BREWER,
Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute
SALLIE W. CHISHOLM,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
EDWARD A. FRIEMAN,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
ARNOLD L. GORDON,
Columbia University
DENNIS A. POWERS,
Stanford University
Staff
MARY HOPE KATSOUROS, Director
EDWARD R. URBAN, JR., Staff Officer
ROBIN PEUSER, Research Associate
DAVID WILMOT, Research Associate
MARY PECHACEK, Administrative Associate
LAVONCYÉ MALLORY, Senior Secretary
CURTIS TAYLOR, Office Assistant
COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES
M. GORDON WOLMAN,
The Johns Hopkins University,
Chair
PATRICK R. ATKINS,
Aluminum Company of America
PETER S. EAGLESON,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
EDWARD A. FRIEMAN,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
W. BARCLAY KAMB,
California Institute of Technology
JACK E. OLIVER,
Cornell University
FRANK L. PARKER,
Vanderbilt University
RAYMOND A. PRICE,
Queen's University at Kingston
LARRY L. SMARR,
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
STEVEN M. STANLEY,
The Johns Hopkins University
WARREN WASHINGTON,
National Center for Atmospheric Research
EDITH BROWN WEISS,
Georgetown University Law Center
Staff
STEPHEN RATTIEN, Executive Director
STEPHEN D. PARKER, Associate Executive Director
MORGAN GOPNIK, Assistant Executive Director
JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative Officer
SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate
ROBIN L. ALLEN, Administrative Assistant
Preface
The ocean plays a predominant role in regulating both natural and human-induced changes in the planet. The role of ocean circulation and the coupling of the ocean and the atmosphere are basic to understanding Earth's changing climate. Regional events such as El Niño and ocean margin and equatorial upwelling influence climate on both seasonal and longer time scales. The world's population is now large enough to alter the chemical composition of the ocean and atmosphere and to impact the biological composition of Earth.
(Oceanography in the Next Decade: Building New Partnerships, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 1992)
The Ocean Studies Board (OSB) report, Oceanography in the Next Decade: Building New Partnerships, highlighted the research programs that contribute to an understanding of the ocean's role in Earth systems. It stressed the importance of developing new partnerships between the federal government and the academic oceanographic community. These partnerships must be based on information transfer among participants. The Ocean Studies Board has strived to accomplish this communication and education in the form of brief
summaries of the major research programs, first in 1990, and now at the beginning of 1994.
The OSB published The Ocean's Role in Global Change: The Contemporary System—An Overview of Major Research Programs in 1990. It described the major research programs that were ongoing or planned at that time, specifically those designed to study the role of the ocean in short-term climate variability. Since that time, many of the programs described have made substantial progress, and new programs that contribute to the study of global change have been planned and initiated. In addition, the 1990 report did not describe research programs that seek to understand long-term variations ranging from thousands to millions of years—the geological perspective.
The OSB has written The Ocean's Role in Global Change: Progress of Major Research Programs to report the progress of the major oceanographic research programs in the past few years. The information necessary for this update was provided by program offices, federal agencies that fund these programs, and the scientists who lead the research efforts, with guidance and overview provided by OSB members. This document does not evaluate or review the research programs. It is intended to serve as an educational reference document for scientists, administrators, managers, Congress, and the public.
The OSB anticipates a follow-up study to look at the out-years of the research programs and anticipate where the next-generation projects relating to the ocean's role in global change should be focused. The OSB also looks forward to working closely with the National Research Council's Board on Global Change as it continues to study the ocean's role in global change.
WILLIAM MERRELL
Ocean Studies Board, Chairman