NOTICE: This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by the President of the National Academy of Sciences.
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PANEL ON REACTOR-RELATED OPTIONS FOR THE DISPOSITION OF EXCESS WEAPONS PLUTONIUM
JOHN P. HOLDREN (Chair), Class of 1935 Professor of Energy,
University of California-Berkeley
JOHN F. AHEARNE, Executive Director,
Sigma Xi, The Scientific Research Society
ROBERT J. BUDNITZ, President,
Future Resources Associates
RICHARD L. GARWIN, IBM Fellow Emeritus,
Thomas J. Watson Research Center, IBM Corporation
MICHAEL M. MAY, Director Emeritus,
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
THOMAS H. PIGFORD, Professor of Nuclear Engineering,
University of California-Berkeley
JOHN J. TAYLOR, Vice President,
Nuclear Power Division, Electric Power Research Institute
Staff
MATTHEW BUNN, Plutonium Study Director
LOIS E. PETERSON, Research Associate
LA'FAYE LEWIS-OLIVER, Administrative Assistant
MONICA OLIVA, Research Assistant
COMMITTEE ON INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AND ARMS CONTROL
JOHN P. HOLDREN (Chair), Class of 1935 Professor of Energy,
University of California-Berkeley
WOLFGANG K.H. PANOFSKY (Plutonium Study Chair), Professor and Director Emeritus,
Stanford Linear Accelerator Center, Stanford University
JOHN D. BALDESCHWIELER,
Division of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, California Institute of Technology
WILLIAM F. BURNS, Major General (retired),
U.S. Army
GEORGE LEE BUTLER, Vice President,
Peter Kiewit Sons, Inc.
PAUL M. DOTY,
Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology; and
Director Emeritus,
Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
STEVE FETTER,
School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland
ALEXANDER H. FLAX, President Emeritus,
Institute for Defense Analyses
RICHARD L. GARWIN, IBM Fellow Emeritus,
Thomas J. Watson Research Center, IBM Corporation
ROSE GOTTEMOELLER, Deputy Director,
International Institute for Strategic Studies
SPURGEON M. KEENY, JR., President,
Arms Control Association
JOSHUA LEDERBERG, University Professor,
The Rockefeller University
MICHAEL M. MAY, Director Emeritus,
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
MATTHEW MESELSON,
Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Harvard University
C. KUMAR N. PATEL, Vice Chancellor,
Research, University of California, Los Angeles
JONATHAN D. POLLACK, Senior Advisor for International Policy,
The RAND Corporation
NEIL J. SMELSER, Director,
Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences
JOHN D. STEINBRUNER, Director,
Foreign Policy Studies Program, The Brookings Institution
ROBERT H. WERTHEIM, Rear Admiral (retired),
U.S. Navy
F. SHERWOOD ROWLAND, ex officio,
Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Sciences
Staff
JO L. HUSBANDS, Director
MATTHEW BUNN, Plutonium Study Director
LOIS E. PETERSON, Research Associate
LA'FAYE LEWIS-OLIVER, Administrative Assistant
MONICA OLIVA, Research Assistant
Preface
With the end of the Cold War, the United States and the republics of the former Soviet Union have undertaken arms control on an unprecedented scale. What to do with the fissile materials from the tens of thousands of nuclear weapons to be dismantled has become a pressing problem for international security. Limits on access to these materials are the primary technical barrier to acquisition of nuclear weapons in the world today.
In 1992 the U.S. government asked the Committee on International Security and Arms Control (CISAC) of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) to study alternative approaches for dismantling nuclear weapons, and for storing and eventually using or disposing of the plutonium they contain. To support CISAC's work, the NAS formed the Panel on Reactor-Related Options for the Disposition of Excess Weapons Plutonium in November 1992. The panel consists of three members of CISAC and four additional members selected for their relevant expertise on issues related to reactors and reactor wastes (see list of panel members on p. iii).
The official U.S. government sponsor of the project is the Office of Nuclear Energy of the U.S. Department of Energy. Additional support was provided by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and National Research Council funds. The Carnegie Corporation of New York and the MacArthur Foundation provide core support for CISAC, including its policy reports.
The panel's report served as input to the deliberations of CISAC in its broader charge, which included consideration of disposition options not related to nuclear reactors, as well as issues of preliminary storage and management of
the weapons plutonium.1 The responsibility for the content of the panel's report, which has been subjected separately to the Academy's review process, rests solely with the members of the panel; similarly, the non-CISAC members of the panel bear no responsibility for the conclusions that CISAC drew, in its 1994 report, from this and other inputs.
Like the main committee study, the panel report proved to be an immense undertaking, requiring hundreds of hours of research, drafting, and discussion by the panel members. The panel's basic analysis and conclusions were completed in late 1993, in time to be an essential ingredient of the full CISAC report. It required an additional 18 months, however, to complete the drafting, editing, and review of the panel's report to its satisfaction. The consensus achieved in the fall of 1993 has not changed over that time, but the analysis is now laid out in full detail and documented. It provides substantial additional information and analysis on various reactor-related options beyond that contained in the committee report.
Every member of the panel contributed to the work of the group, with each person responsible for drafting the description and assessment of particular options. Panel chair John P. Holdren, who is also the chair of CISAC, wrote major sections of the report and undertook the formidable task of comparing the various options. The depth and richness of the report reflects his prodigious efforts.
The CISAC staff provided invaluable assistance throughout the course of the panel's work. Study Director Matthew Bunn somehow managed to oversee the work of both the main committee and the panel. He was an essential liaison between the two groups and provided significant intellectual input to the work of both. He drafted major portions of the CISAC report and edited the panel report to harmonize the work of the individual panel members. The project could not have been completed without him.
CISAC's research associate, Lois Peterson, and research assistant, Monica Oliva, provided crucial substantive and administrative support, including the preparation of the manuscript for publication as part of the new National Academy Press program in desktop publishing. Ms. Peterson also served as an additional staff liaison for the panel once Mr. Bunn was burdened with a new assignment. The entire CISAC staff received a group staff award in recognition of its exceptional efforts on this project.
The issue of management and disposition of plutonium from arms reductions has a long history and a voluminous literature, stretching back almost to the beginning of the nuclear age. In recent years these issues have been studied by a wide variety of groups and individuals in the United States, including those associated with the U.S. Department of Energy and other agencies of the U.S.
government, the Office of Technology Assessment, the Natural Resources Defense Council, the Federation of American Scientists, the Center for Energy and Environment Studies at Princeton University, the Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University, the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research, several Department of Energy laboratories, and a variety of private companies. Groups and individuals in Russia, Europe, Japan, and elsewhere have also examined the problem. In carrying out their studies, CISAC and the panel benefited greatly from this substantial body of prior work, and extensive communications with many of those involved in it, for which the committee and the panel are profoundly grateful.
In addition, the panel was fortunate to receive help from many parts of the Department of Energy. Staff members from the Department of Energy headquarters and facilities, including Hanford, Savannah River, Los Alamos, and Lawrence Livermore generously gave time to help clarify and resolve technical issues, as well as providing access to relevant experts and materials. The Idaho National Engineering Laboratory merits particular recognition for its significant effort to analyze several aspects of the reactor disposition options, such as non-fertile reactor fuels, carried out without charge to the Academy. Without this assistance, it would have been impossible for the panel to examine the issues in the depth required with the time and personnel it had at its disposal.
As the main CISAC report concludes, there are no easy answers to the problems posed by the fissile materials that are part of the legacy of the Cold War arms competition between the United States and the former Soviet Union. The issues addressed and the options outlined and evaluated will be of critical importance for the future prospects for nonproliferation and arms reduction. Action is urgently needed; in CISAC's words, "The existence of this surplus material constitutes a clear and present danger to national and international security. None of the options yet identified for managing this material can eliminate this danger; all they can do is to reduce the risks."