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COMMITTEE ON POPULATION
RONALD D. LEE (Chair),
Department of Demography and Economics, University of California, Berkeley
CAROLINE H. BLEDSOE,
Department of Anthropology, Northwestern University
JOSÉ LUIS BOBADILLA,*
Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, D.C.
JOHN BONGAARTS,
The Population Council, New York
JOHN B. CASTERLINE,
The Population Council, New York
LINDA G. MARTIN, RAND,
Santa Monica, California
JANE MENKEN,
University of Pennsylvania
ROBERT A. MOFFITT,
Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University
MARK R. MONTGOMERY,
The Population Council, New York
W. HENRY MOSLEY,
Department of Population Dynamics, Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health
ALBERTO PALLONI,
Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin, Madison
JAMES P. SMITH, RAND,
Santa Monica, California
BETH J. SOLDO,
Department of Demography, Georgetown University
MARTA TIENDA,**
Population Research Center, University of Chicago
AMY O. TSUI,**
Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
JOHN G. HAAGA, Director
BARNEY COHEN, Program Officer
TRISH DeFRISCO, Senior Project Assistant
KAREN A. FOOTE, Program Officer (to July 1996)
JOEL A. ROSENQUIST, Senior Project Assistant
CONTRIBUTORS
STEVEN N. AUSTAD, University of Idaho
JAMES R. CAREY, University of California, Davis
CALEB E. FINCH, University of Southern California
CATHERINE GRUENFELDER, University of California, Davis
THOMAS E. JOHNSON, University of Colorado
HILLARD KAPLAN, University of New Mexico
RONALD D. LEE, University of California, Berkeley
LINDA PARTRIDGE, University College London
MICHAEL R. ROSE, University of California, Irvine
DAVID R. SHOOK, University of Colorado
SHRIPAD TULJAPURKAR, Mountain View Research, California, and Stanford University
JAMES W. VAUPEL, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
KENNETH W. WACHTER, University of California, Berkeley
ROBERT B. WALLACE, University of Iowa
JOHN R. WILMOTH, University of California, Berkeley
Preface
The Committee on Population was established in 1983 by the National Research Council, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. Much of the committee's work has concerned the demography and health of aging populations. Together with the Committee on National Statistics and the Institute of Medicine, the Committee on Population sponsored a Workshop on Forecasting Survival, Health, and Disability in 1992. Also in 1992, the committee organized a Workshop on the Demography of Aging covering a range of topics, from household and family demography, to work and retirement, intergenerational transfers, and health (Demography of Aging, 1994). A 1994 workshop examined the reasons for continued racial and ethnic differences in health and survival at older ages (Racial and Ethnic Differences in the Health of Older Americans, 1997). It was clear from all these efforts that future work on the progress of life expectancy at older ages would require genuine interdisciplinary communication between (and within) the social and life sciences.
This concern led the committee, with funding from the National Institute on Aging (NIA), to organize a series of planning and discussion meetings, culminating in a workshop in Washington in April 1996, at which demographers, evolutionary theorists, genetic epidemiologists, anthropologists, and biologists from many different scientific taxa could meet and share contributions to the understanding of human longevity. These were exciting occasions, as I believe this volume, consisting of revised versions of some papers originally presented at the April workshop, attests.
The call for interdisciplinary communication is often just a polite but inconsequential line in conclusions or book reviews, or a grandiose promise in conference proposals. Making it happen productively requires a good deal of preparation and commitment on the part of scholars, all with competing demands on their time and attention. The committee was especially fortunate to get advice and help from thoughtful and busy individuals. We would like to thank Richard Suzman of NIA, who saw the need, shared his ideas, and infected all of us with his enthusiasm. Kenneth Weiss of Pennsylvania State University was especially helpful; he was uniquely qualified to tell us what would interest scientists working in a whole range of fields, and what they knew that would interest the rest. We thank Richard Hodes of NIA for his interest and support. Harold Morowitz of George Mason University, Richard Sprott, Richard Havlik, and Evan Hadley (all of NIA), and Eric Fischer of the NRC Board on Biology gave us sound advice in the design stages and good ideas in the discussions. Elizabeth Corder of Duke University and the Stockholm Gerontology Research Center, Marcus Feldman of Stanford University, Trudy Mackay of North Carolina State University, Jennifer Madans of the National Center on Health Statistics, Randolph Nesse of the University of Michigan, Alan Rogers of the University of Utah, Burton Singer of Princeton University, and Robert Willis of the University of Michigan were generous with their ideas at the workshops and afterward.
Our greatest debt is to Kenneth Wachter of the University of California, Berkeley, and Caleb Finch of the University of Southern California, who devoted time and energy to planning and chairing the workshop, guiding authors in their revisions, and editing this volume. The success of the project depended on their ability to listen and read carefully and critically, and discern what each speaker and author had to contribute to those working in different areas.
Thanks also are due to Beth Soldo, who reviewed the manuscript on behalf of the committee. Colene Walden gave a helpful copy editing of the report and drafted the Glossary. Christine McShane guided the manuscript through the publication process. Karen Foote was diligent and thorough in handling the organization of the workshop and the review process. Trish DeFrisco handled all the administrative tasks for the workshop and manuscript production with her customary efficiency and good grace. Trang Ta helped with manuscript preparation and citation checking in the final stages. John Haaga, the committee staff director, wrote the proposals, supervised the process between meetings, and ably replaced Karen as project officer when she moved to the University of Illinois.
Most of all, of course, we appreciate the contributions of authors and workshop participants. We trust that this volume will inspire others to join in their valuable work.
RONALD D. LEE
CHAIR, COMMITTEE ON POPULATION
Contents
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1 Between Zeus and the Salmon: Introduction |
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2 Trajectories of Mortality at Advanced Ages |
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3 In Search of Limits |
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4 The Evolution of Senescence |
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5 Evolutionary Biology and Age-Related Mortality |
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6 Toward an Evolutionary Demography |
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7 Identification and Mapping of Genes Determining Longevity |
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8 Population Biology of the Elderly |
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9 Postreproductive Survival |
10 The Evolution of the Human Life Course |
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11 Intergenerational Relations and the Elderly |
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12 The Potential of Population Surveys for Genetic Studies |
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13 Comparative Perspectives on Plasticity in Human Aging and Life Spans |
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Between Zeus and the SalmonThe Biodemography of Longevity |