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PANEL ON ESTIMATES OF POVERTY FOR SMALL GEOGRAPHIC AREAS
GRAHAM KALTON (Chair),
Westat, Rockville, Maryland
DAVID M. BETSON,
Department of Economics, University of Notre Dame
NANCY E. DUNTON,
Midwest Research Institute, Kansas City, Missouri
WAYNE A. FULLER,
Department of Statistics, Iowa State University
THOMAS B. JABINE, Consultant,
Washington, D.C.
SYLVIA T. JOHNSON,
School of Education, Howard University
THOMAS A. LOUIS,
School of Public Health, University of Minnesota
SALLY C. MORTON,
RAND, Santa Monica, California
JEFFREY S. PASSEL,
Urban Institute, Washington, D.C.
J.N.K. RAO,
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Carleton University
ALLEN L. SCHIRM,
Mathematica Policy Research, Inc., Washington, D.C.
PAUL R. VOSS,
Department of Rural Sociology, University of Wisconsin
JAMES H. WYCKOFF,
Graduate School of Public Affairs, State University of New York, Albany
ALAN M. ZASLAVSKY,
Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School
CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Study Director
MICHAEL L. COHEN, Senior Staff Officer
KIRSTEN K. WEST, Research Associate
MEYER ZITTER, Consultant
CANDICE S. EVANS, Senior Project Assistant
COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS 1997-1998
NORMAN M. BRADBURN (Chair),
National Opinion Research Center, University of Chicago
JULIE DAVANZO,
RAND, Santa Monica, California
WILLIAM F. EDDY,
Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University
JOHN F. GEWEKE,
Department of Economics, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis
ERIC A. HANUSHEK,
W. Allen Wallis Institute of Political Economy and Department of Economics, University of Rochester
RODERICK J.A. LITTLE,
School of Public Health, University of Michigan
THOMAS A. LOUIS,
School of Public Health, University of Minnesota
CHARLES F. MANSKI,
Department of Economics, Northwestern University
WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS,
Department of Economics, Yale University
JANET L. NORWOOD,
Urban Institute, Washington, D.C.
EDWARD B. PERRIN,
Department of Health Services, University of Washington
PAUL R. ROSENBAUM,
Department of Statistics, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
KEITH F. RUST,
Westat, Rockville, Maryland
FRANCISCO J. SAMANIEGO,
Division of Statistics, University of California, Davis
MIRON L. STRAF, Director
ANDREW WHITE, Deputy Director
Tables and Figures
TABLES
3-1 |
Single-Equation County Models: Dependent Variable and Predictor Variables |
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3-2 |
Bivariate County Models: Dependent Variable, Predictor Variables, and Form of the Predictor Variables for the CPS Equation for 1993 |
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4-1 |
Estimates of Regression Coefficients for Four Candidate County Models for 1989 and 1993 |
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4-2 |
Comparison of Model Estimates and Other Procedures with 1990 Census County Estimates of the Number and Proportion of Poor Related Children Aged 5-17 in 1989 |
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4-3 |
Comparison of Model Estimates with 1990 Census County Estimates of the Number of Poor School-Age Children in 1989: Algebraic Difference by Category of County |
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4-4 |
Agreement Between Model Estimates for 1989 and 1990 Census County Estimates for Proportions of School-Age Children in Poverty in 1989 |
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4-5 |
Estimates of Regression Coefficients for the State Model for 1989 and 1993 |
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B-1 |
Evaluation of 1990 County Population Estimates for Age Group 5-17, by Population Size in 1990 |
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B-2 |
Evaluation of 1990 County Population Estimates for Age Group 5-17, by Growth Rate, 1980-1990 |
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B-3 |
Evaluation of 1990 County Population Estimates for Age Group 5-17, by Percent Black and Other Nonwhite Population, 1990 |
B-4 |
Evaluation of 1990 County Population Estimates for Age Group 5-17, by Percent Hispanic Population, 1990 |
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B-5 |
Evaluation of 1990 County Population Estimates for Age Group 5-17, by Percent Poor Population, 1990 |
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B-6 |
Evaluation of 1990 County Population Estimates for Age Group 5-17, by Percent Group Quarters Residents, 1990 |
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B-7 |
Evaluation of 1990 County Population Estimates for Age Group 5-17, by Census Division |
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B-8 |
Evaluation of 1990 County Population Estimates for Age Group 5-17, by Metropolitan Status, 1990 |
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C-1 |
Estimates of Regression Coefficients for the CPS Equation for 13 County Models |
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C-2 |
Estimates of Regression Coefficients for the 1990 Census Equation for the 1993 Bivariate Models |
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D-1 |
Comparison of Model Estimates and Other Procedures with 1990 Census County Estimates of the Number of Poor School-Age Children in 1989: Algebraic Difference by Category of County |
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D-2 |
Comparison of Model Estimates and Other Procedures with 1990 Census County Estimates of the Number of Poor School-Age Children in 1989: Average Proportional Algebraic Difference for Counties in Each Category, |
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D-3 |
Comparison of First-Round Model Estimates with 1990 Census County Estimates of the Number of Poor School-Age Children in 1989 |
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D-4 |
Comparison of First-Round Model Estimates with 1990 Census County Estimates of the Number of Poor School-Age Children in 1989: Algebraic Difference by Category of County |
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D-5 |
Comparison of First-Round Model Estimates with 1990 Census County Estimates of the Number of Poor School-Age Children in 1989: Average Proportional Algebraic Difference for Counties in Each Category |
FIGURES
4-1 |
Change in poverty rate for school-age children, 1980-1990: Category differences from the 1990 census |
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4-2 |
Population growth, 1980-1990: Category differences from the 1990 census |
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4-3 |
Population size, 1990: Category differences from the 1990 census |
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4-4 |
Percent Hispanic population, 1990: Category differences from the 1990 census |
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4-5 |
Percent group quarters residents, 1990: Category differences from the 1990 census |
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4-6 |
Census division: Category differences from the 1990 census |
Acknowledgments
The Panel on Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas wishes to thank the many people who contributed to the preparation of this, the panel's second interim report.
We wish to thank particularly the staff of the Census Bureau who worked with us in June-October 1997 to evaluate the Census Bureau's original model and alternative models for producing county estimates of poor school-age children in 1993: William Bell, John Coder, Robert Fay, Robin Fisher, Matt Kramer, Mark Otto, Paul Siegel, and George Train. We also thank the Census Bureau staff who facilitated the arrangements for the work: Cynthia Clark, Nancy Gordon, Charles Nelson, and Daniel Weinberg. Members of the Census Bureau's Population Division, including Bashir Ahmed, Michael Batutis, Sam Davis, John Long, Barbara Martin, Esther Miller, Douglas Sater, Larry Sink, Signe Wetrogan, and Janet Wysocki, provided informative briefings and evaluation materials on the county population estimates of school-age children.
Daniel Kasprzyk of the National Center for Education Statistics, who serves as the Department of Education project officer for the study, was helpful as always in facilitating this phase of its work. The panel also appreciates the continued help of other Department of Education staff, in particular, Sandy Brown, Kay Rigling, William Sonnenberg, and Stephanie Stullich, in educating us about the Title I allocation process.
I thank my panel colleagues for their continued commitment to the work of the panel and to its second interim report, which was prepared, like the first, under a very demanding time schedule. We were assisted by a very able staff. Constance Citro, who became the panel's study director in spring 1997, had
overall responsibility for the project. Without her excellent work in preparing and revising drafts of the report, we would not have been able to complete this report on time. Michael Cohen made important contributions to the evaluation of alternative models and to many sections of the report. Meyer Zitter, with the help of Kirsten West, ably assisted the panel's working group on the county population estimates and provided other materials for the panel. Candice Evans provided administrative support for our study and capably and cheerfully carried the brunt of the work to produce the report. Eugenia Grohman, associate director for reports of the Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, contributed substantially to the readability of the report through her fine technical editing. To all we are grateful.
Graham Kalton, Chair
Panel on Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas