NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance.
Support for this project was provided by the United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under Contract No. 50-DKNA-7-90052. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of NOAA, USGCRP, or any of its sub-agencies.
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Panel on Climate Observing Systems Status
THOMAS R. KARL (Chair),
National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina
ROBERT E. DICKINSON,
University of Arizona, Tucson
MAURICE BLACKMON,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
BERT BOLIN,
University of Stockholm, Sweden
JEFF DOZIER,
University of California, Santa Barbara
WILLIAM P. ELLIOTT,
NOAA/Air Resources Laboratory, Silver Spring, Maryland
JAMES GIRAYTYS, Certified Consulting Meteorologist,
Winchester, Virginia
RICHARD E. HALLGREN,
American Meteorological Society, Washington, D.C.
JAMES E. HANSEN,
NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York
SYDNEY LEVITUS,
NOAA/National Oceanic Data Center, Silver Spring, Maryland
GORDON MCBEAN,
Environment Canada, Downsview, Ontario
GERALD MEEHL,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
PHILIP E. MERILEES,
Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California
ROBERTA BALSTAD MILLER, CIESIN,
Columbia University, Palisades, New York
ROBERT G. QUAYLE,
NOAA/National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina
S. ICHTIAQUE RASOOL,
University of New Hampshire, Durham
STEVEN W. RUNNING,
University of Montana, Missoula
EDWARD S. SARACHIK,
University of Washington, Seattle
WILLIAM H. SCHLESINGER,
Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
KARL E. TAYLOR,
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California
ANNE M. THOMPSON,
NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
Ex Officio Members
W. LAWRENCE GATES,
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California
DOUGLAS G. MARTINSON,
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York
SOROOSH SOROOSHIAN,
University of Arizona, Tucson
PETER J. WEBSTER,
University of Colorado, Boulder
Climate Research Committee
THOMAS R. KARL (Chair),
National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina
ROBERT E. DICKINSON,
University of Arizona, Tucson
MAURICE BLACKMON,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
BERT BOLIN,
University of Stockholm, Sweden
JEFF DOZIER,
University of California, Santa Barbara
JAMES GIRAYTYS, Certified Consulting Meteorologist,
Winchester, Virginia
JAMES E. HANSEN,
NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York
PHILIP E. MERILEES,
Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California
ROBERTA BALSTAD MILLER,
CIESIN, Columbia University, Palisades, New York
S. ICHTIAQUE RASOOL,
University of New Hampshire, Durham
STEVEN W. RUNNING,
University of Montana, Missoula
WILLIAM H. SCHLESINGER,
Duke University, Durham, North Carolina
KARL E. TAYLOR,
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California
ANNE M. THOMPSON,
NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
Ex Officio Members
W. LAWRENCE GATES,
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California
DOUGLAS G. MARTINSON,
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia, University, Palisades, New York
SOROOSH SOROOSHIAN,
University of Arizona, Tucson
PETER J. WEBSTER,
University of Colorado, Boulder
Staff
PETER SCHULTZ, Program Officer
TENECIA BROWN, Senior Program Assistant
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
ERIC J. BARRON (Co-chair),
Pennsylvania State University, University Park
JAMES R. MAHONEY (Co-chair),
International Technology Corporation, Washington, D.C.
SUSAN K. AVERY, CIRES,
University of Colorado, Boulder
LANCE F. BOSART,
State University of New York, Albany
MARVIN A. GELLER,
State University of New York, Stony Brook
DONALD M. HUNTEN,
University of Arizona, Tucson
JOHN IMBRIE,
Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island
CHARLES E. KOLB,
Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts
THOMAS J. LENNON,
WSI Corporation, Billerica, Massachusetts
MARK R. SCHOEBERL,
NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
JOANNE SIMPSON,
NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
NIEN DAK SZE,
Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts
Staff
ELBERT W. FRIDAY, JR., Director
H. FRANK EDEN, Senior Program Officer (ending December 31, 1998)
DAVID H. SLADE, Senior Program Officer
LAURIE GELLER, Program Officer
PETER SCHULTZ, Program Officer
TENECIA BROWN, Senior Program Assistant
CARTER FORD, Project Assistant
DIANE GUSTAFSON, Administrative Assistant
ROBIN MORRIS, Financial Associate
Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources
GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chair),
University of Virginia, Charlottesville
PATRICK R. ATKINS,
Aluminum Company of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
JERRY F. FRANKLIN,
University of Washington, Seattle
B. JOHN GARRICK,
PLG, Inc., Newport Beach, California
THOMAS E. GRAEDEL,
Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
DEBRA KNOPMAN,
Progressive Foundation, Washington, D.C.
KAI N. LEE,
Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts
JUDITH E. McDOWELL,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
RICHARD A. MESERVE,
Covington and Burling, Washington, D.C.
HUGH C. MORRIS,
Canadian Global Change Program, Delta, British Columbia
RAYMOND A. PRICE,
Queen's University at Kingston, Ontario
H. RONALD PULLIAM,
University of Georgia, Athens
THOMAS C. SCHELLING,
University of Maryland, College Park
VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL,
Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida
E-AN ZEN,
University of Maryland, College Park
MARY LOU ZOBACK,
U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California
Staff
ROBERT HAMILTON, Executive Director
GREGORY SYMMES, Assistant Executive Director
JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative Officer
SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate
MARQUITA SMITH, PC Analyst & Senior Project Assistant
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Foreword
There is nothing more precious to scientists than the measurements and observations required to confirm or contradict theories and hypotheses. No matter how fundamental the theory or hypothesis, observations are the building blocks of science.
In the earth sciences, and in particular the climate sciences, there is a peculiar relation between the scientist and the data. Unlike many other sciences, where strict laboratory controls, or at least day-to-day scientific oversight of measurements is the rule, in order to detect changes in the Earth's climate and attribute these to specific causes, multivariate observations are required over long periods of time, on a global basis, and in a synoptic sense. Climate scientists focusing on this task must therefore rely on observations and data collected by a whole suite of observing systems operated by various countries. The instrumentation, observing practices, processing algorithms, and data archive methods used by these countries profoundly affect the progress of understanding climate change.
Such a relationship to observations and data is nothing new to meteorologists. To help overcome this divorce between the scientist and their data, decades ago meteorologists developed the World Weather Watch program coordinated through the World Meteorological Organization. Its success has been a model of human cooperation and ingenuity. It has enabled meteorologists in forecast offices anywhere in the world to take advantage of our increased understanding of the atmospheric sciences and provide improved weather forecasts.
Is an analogous system needed for the climate sciences? Are we making the measurements, collecting the data, and making it available in a way that both today's scientist, as well as tomorrow's, will be able to effectively increase our understanding of natural and human-induced climate change? The Panel on Climate Observing Systems Status would answer the latter question with an emphatic NO. Given the potential impact of anthropogenic climate change on our society and in a worst-case scenario a catastrophic change in climate, there is an urgent need for improving the record of performance. This report is an attempt to help illuminate the importance of multi-decadal climate monitoring.
THOMAS R. KARL, CHAIR
Acknowledgments
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report:
Mark Abbott, Oregon State University
Patrick Atkins, Aluminum Company of America
Russ Davis, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Robert Frosch, Harvard University
James Holton, University of Washington
David Keeling, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Joanne Simpson, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center
Kevin Trenberth, National Center for Atmospheric Research
While the individuals listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of this report rests solely with the authoring committee and the NRC.
In addition, the following people contributed significantly to the deliberations of the panel and their efforts are greatly appreciated:
Tom Carroll, National Weather Service, Office of Hydrology
Ted Engman, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center
Andrew Fountain, Portland State University
Paul Houser, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center
Jurate Landwehr, U.S. Geological Survey
Dennis Lettenmaier, University of Washington
Harry Lins, U.S. Geological Survey
Dave Robinson, Rutgers University
Jim Shuttleworth, University of Arizona
Kevin Trenberth, National Center for Atmospheric Research.