Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase One) A First Look Forward (2005) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix F: Report of the Panel on Benefits of Lighting R&D
Appendix F: Report of the Panel on Benefits of Lighting R&D
Pages 75-88
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From page 75... ...
matrix and modified it; then used the matrix to complete its analysis. OBJECTIVES OF STUDY The following sections summarize the DOE lighting The NRC's Committee on Prospective Benefits of program and budget, describe the benefits analysis, and DOE's Energy Efficiency and Fossil Energy R&D Pro- summarize the panel's findings, including the strengths and weaknesses of the methodology and recommendations to improve it.
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. For the lighting pro Thirty projects have been identified for funding in the gram, energy efficiency means improving the technology of Solid State Lighting Program.
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Watt 100 per Full funding/no delay Calculating Benefits 80 Reduced funding/no delay Lumens 60 Reduced funding/5-yr delay Gross Benefits Gross benefits -- the economic, environmental, and na- 40 tional security benefits that accrue from the use of improved 20 lighting technology, as calculated prior to the application of any weighting function -- are estimated by DOE using two 0 models: (1)
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Each probability implicitly assumes that other lighting economic benefits of the reduced-funding analysis are shown characteristics necessary for market adoption are also met-in Figure F-2 to illustrate the general pattern. The data for for example, costs will be reasonable and competitive, and Figure F-2 are taken from the first three rows of Table F-2.
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The averaged estimates are a curve for net benefits (reduced-funding/5-year delay)
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ability-adjusted economic benefits through 2050, relative to depending on private-sector and foreign government R&D Completing the Matrix funding. DOE funding of $500 million would be required over 10 years or 20 years for the two budget levels -- full The lighting panel completed the prospective benefits ma- funding and reduced funding, respectively.
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Economic $37 billion Benefits Environmental 115 Program Benefits MMTCe Benefits Security 5 quads Benefits natural gas Expected NOTES: All benefits cumulative through 2050. MMTCe = million metric tons of carbon equivalent; quad = quadrillion British thermal units.
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tal regulations rather than reductions in emissions. The environmental benefits shown in and Figures F-4 and CO2 emission reductions have value in a carbon-conF-5 are estimated in million metric tons of carbon equivalent strained economy.
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By reducing natural gas use and, as a re the OBT's secondary goal -- helping American companies sult, likely energy imports in the future, the United States stay competitive with foreign companies -- are achieved, would be less vulnerable to the negative effects of higher market acceptance of solid state lighting will probably folenergy prices and disruptions in supplies, thereby improving low. It is simply a question of how fast.
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In any case, it and Gas Prices and the Carbon Constrained scenarios would might continue to improve past 150 lpw. There is an upper make the benefits even higher, as electricity prices would limit to what might be achieved with SSL technology.
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APPENDIX F 85 sibility was accounted for in this analysis by the 5-year rule, complex program, but it cannot convey all of the considerwhich produced a more plausible baseline. However, the ations and caveats that went into the analysis.
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The chair kept the discussions on track, fo- other storage devices, energy efficiency, and R&D managecused, and on subject. Several members had facilitation skills ment.
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Langford a board member and executive vice president of the Associa- spent 19 years with the IBM Corporation, where he held tion of Energy Service Professionals International.
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88 PROSPECTIVE EVALUATION OF APPLIED ENERGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT AT DOE (PHASE ONE) dation.
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