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EMERGING TRENDS 20 doctorates in mathematics and physics. Approximately half of all foreign students remain in the United States, making valuable contributions to the nation's economy, research, and education. However, the large numbers of foreign students involved and the likelihood that they will return in increasing numbers to take advantage of improved career opportunities in their homeland raises serious questions about the drain of much needed scientific knowledge and technical experience.17 Increases in Ph.D. degrees in the biological sciences primarily result from the growing participation of U.S. females. Although the continuation rate for U.S. citizens into Ph.D. programs appears to be increasing, there is still concern that it will be inadequate for meeting academic labor demands in the next decade. These trends in the potential supply of academic personnel, however, must be seen in the context of trends in education and training throughout U.S. society. The nation requires increasing supply of highly trained personnel in all economic sectors. FINANCIAL RESOURCES. Sustaining the quality of current research institutions and programs is increasingly expensive. An accelerating pace in the development of knowledge generates a proliferation of research opportunities. It is a self-reinforcing phenomenon: A theoretical or technological breakthroughâin any field, molecular biology, high-energy physics, or computer scienceâ provokes demand for expensive new research. Increasing numbers of scientists and engineers, in pursuit of such exciting opportunities, propose sophisticated research designs, which often require additional laboratory space and equipment, and highly trained personnel. Universities and research sponsors, committed to maintaining their place at the frontier of scientific advance, are pressured to approve the proposed research. High-quality research on the frontier of any discipline is increasingly capital intensive. In all sciences, the term âstate-of- the-artâ implies a technological sophistication of equipment and facilities that is increasingly costly, especially as dramatic technological advances accelerate the obsolescence of vast portions of existing equipment and facilities. This rapid pace in technological change in indicated by the fact that, in 1986, the median age of all academic research instrumentation classified as state-of-the-art was only 2-years old; in computer science, electrical engineering, chemistry, and environmental science, the median age was 1-year.18 Other factors are also involved in equipment costs. One of the more important is the expense associated with keeping highly trained technicians on staff; another is a growing awareness of essentials for environmental and work-place safety, which inevitably drive up costs. University research facilities, many built during the 1960s' boom years, need to be renovated or replaced. Recent surveys indicate that $3.4 billion is obligated nationally for construction of academic science and engineering facilities. University administrators estimate, however, that about $8.5 billion in necessary construction has been deferred. In repair and renovation alone, $777 million has been obligated for academic research facilities, but almost four times that amount has been deferred.19 This, in effect, is an
EMERGING TRENDS 21 unfunded liability of nearly $3 billion and it continues to grow. This represents a potential danger to the long-term viability of these institutions. The average compensation of an academic researcher has risen sharply in the last few years.20 The reasons for this seem to be the result of two important factors: First, universities have to compete with industry for research personnel in several fields. Second, competition among universities for top research faculty fuels wage costs. In this regard, it should be noted that during the 1990s, wage pressures will likely continue to intensify because of the shortage of and demand for teaching Ph.D.s, particularly if an increase in student enrollments materializes. Growing demand by industry for Ph.D.s, driven by the complex technological base of the service, manufacturing, and agricultural sectors, will also fuel wage increases. The United States has entered a period of constrained fiscal resources . In the nation's current economic circumstances, financing the perceived needs of the academic research enterprise will not be easily accomplished. Government policies during the next decade will be affected strongly by the large federal budget deficits and public resistance to raising taxes. State governmentsâmany of which are confronting budgetary constraintsâappear to be closely evaluating their needs and priorities, including the funding of academic research. In addition, industry-sponsored research may flatten or decrease, potentially exacerbated by corporate mergers and leveraged buy-outs. These pressures will intensify competition for available federal dollars and foster priority setting among federal programs. Academic research funding will not be immune from these processes. The ability of many universities to generate significantly greater research funds through internal resources is likely to be limited. For public universities, for example, steady enrollments and state budget constraints may press the limits on state appropriations. For both private and public universities, constraints on tuition increases and additional philanthropic contributions may diminish their ability to maintain world leadership in research.